The 2018 Provincial Election in Quebec

The 2018 election in Quebec marked an important turn in the province’s political history with the victory of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ)—the first time since 1966 that a party other than the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) or the Parti Québécois (PQ) formed a government. The incumbent QLP suffered from voter fatigue and a backlash against its austerity measures while the PQ had been struggling for several years due to the declining popularity of its sovereignty option, especially among younger generations of voters. The CAQ had been leading in the polls for over a year, although the campaign proved to be more competitive than expected in its second half. The battle for third place was hard fought between the PQ and the insurgent Québec Solidaire (QS). The election’s outcome, and the CAQ government’s success, suggest that the new party system configuration that came into place in 2018 may be a lasting one

Facteurs d’appui à la souveraineté du Québec chez les jeunes : Une comparaison entre francophones, anglophones et allophones

Des études récentes ont fait état d’une progression notable de l’option souverainiste chez les Québécois issus de l’immigration, particulièrement parmi les jeunes (« génération 101 »). Ces résultats ont amené certains à conclure que l’intégration linguistique de ces derniers les sensibilisait davantage à l’option souverainiste et que leur comportement électoral était maintenant devenu pratiquement indifférencié de celui des jeunes francophones. Notre étude, basée sur les données d’un sondage mené en 2006, suggère de nuancer ces conclusions. Nos résultats indiquent en effet que, malgré la hausse de l’appui à la souveraineté observée ces dernières années chez les jeunes allophones, les facteurs motivant leur appui ne sont pas tout à fait les mêmes que chez les francophones. Les jeunes allophones semblent notamment très sensibles aux valeurs associées au fédéralisme canadien, de même qu’aux conséquences économiques de la souveraineté. En ce sens, leur comportement s’apparente davantage à celui des jeunes anglophones qu’à celui des jeunes francophones. Le contraste entre francophones et allophones apparaît encore plus marqué lorsque nous examinons l’appui à une question référendaire plus « dure » faisant référence à l’accession du Québec au statut de « pays ».Recent studies have shown a significant increase in sovereignty support among Quebec immigrants, and particularly among immigrants’ children (“Generation 101”). These observations have led some to conclude that, as a result of linguistic integration, immigrant youths’ political opinions and behaviour have become almost undifferentiated from those of their francophone counterparts. Our study, based on a survey conducted in early 2006, provides a significantly more nuanced picture of the situation. Our results indicate that, even though young allophones may have become more supportive of Quebec sovereignty in recent years, the actual motivations behind their support are not entirely the same as those of young francophones. Young allophones appear to be very sensitive to values associated with Canadian federalism, and to the economic consequences of sovereignty. On these accounts, their behaviour more closely resembles that of young anglophones. Such contrast between francophones and allophones becomes even more striking when we examine answers to a more “hardline” referendum question that refers to Quebec assuming the status of a “country.

The 2007 Provincial Election in Quebec

The 2007 provincial election in Quebec may be considered a milestone in recent Quebec politics. For the first time since 1878, voters elected a minority government in the province (Jean Charest’s Liberals), a third party (ADQ) replaced the Parti Québécois (PQ) as Official Opposition, and the PQ had its worst showing in 37 years. The pre-campaign was marked by the “reasonable accommodations” debate, which gave the ADQ the boost it needed to rival the two main parties. The incumbent Charest government suffered from its low popularity, due to what was largely perceived as a disappointing record. The PQ’s loss of support was mostly attributable to its new leader André Boisclair’s lack of appeal and to the party’s insistence on holding another referendum on Quebec sovereignty. Quebec’s new three-party system may last for some time, due to each party having strong and relatively well-defined regional support bases

The 2008 Provincial Election in Quebec

In November of 2008, Quebec Premier Jean Charest decided to call a snap election. His obvious goal was to regain a majority of seats in the National Assembly by taking advantage of the Action Démocratique du Québec’s steady decline in the polls and of the breaking financial crisis. The campaign’s central theme was the management of the upcoming “economic storm.” Based on the overall outcome, it is clear that Charest won his gamble, but this came at the price of an extremely low turnout. Also, it is unclear if the Liberal government will be able to win a fourth consecutive election down the road. The current controversy surrounding the Caisse de Dépôt et Placement’s debacle may well hurt the PLQ in the long term. The Parti Québécois, having regained its place as the official opposition, now appears well positioned to become the alternative to the government next time

Prescribed Burning to Restore Eastern White Pine Forests of La Mauricie National Park of Canada

Eastern white pine forests of La Mauricie National Park of Canada have been severely affected by logging and forest fire suppression since the 1850s, and by the exotic white pine blister rust since the beginning of the twentieth century. These alterations have changed the ecological trajectory of eastern white pine ecosystems, which now appear hardly sustainable. Eastern white pine saplings are nearly absent, and balsam fir saplings are strong competitors for space and light. Since 1991, Parks Canada uses prescribed burning for restoring eastern white pine ecosystems. We studied seven pine stands in which prescribed burning was applied and compared them with nine unburned stands. Over 63% of balsam fir saplings were killed by prescribed burning, thus eliminating a significant part of the competition to eastern white pine seedlings. These were four times more abundant in burned than in unburned sites (21,333 vs. 5178 seedlings/ha). In the short term, the eastern white pine regeneration objectives established by Parks Canada have been achieved. Pine seedlings growth is slow, and they should be monitored regularly to ensure long-term success of this restoration programme. If necessary, it might be helpful to increase light penetration by girdling mature balsam firs or spruces

Framing risky choices: how the Leave campaign convinced Britain to take a leap into the unknown

Prior to the Brexit referendum in 2016, many observers expected that floating voters would swing toward Remain due to the perceived risks and uncertainty associated with leaving the European Union. Drawing on a new book, Ece Özlem Atikcan, Richard Nadeau and Éric Bélanger explain how the Leave campaign managed to reframe the risks associated with Brexit and win the referendum

The 2012 Provincial Election in Quebec

The 2012 provincial election in Quebec marked a change in government, and the election of Quebec’s first woman as Premier. The campaign was held in a dramatic context characterized by nearly three years of allegations of corruption, the apparent decline of the sovereignty movement, and the events of the famous “maple spring” which pitted students against the Liberal government on the issue of tuition fee hikes. Two significant new political parties, the Coalition Avenir Québec and Option Nationale, also took part in this election. The outcome was a minority government led by Pauline Marois’ Parti Québécois, with stronger than expected support for the incumbent Liberal Party of Quebec who finished second with only four seats less than the PQ

The 2014 Provincial Election in Quebec

After having been in power for just a little over a year and a half, the Parti Québécois government led by Pauline Marois decided to call an early election in the hope of getting the majority of seats that had evaded them the last time around. That bet was lost as the 2014 election campaign resulted in the worst showing for the PQ since 1973. The inter-election period was dominated by the debate over the PQ’s proposed Charter of Quebec Values. The Charter also influenced the debate during the campaign, as did the issue of Quebec’s sovereignty due in part to the arrival of Pierre Karl Péladeau as a star candidate for the PQ. The Liberal Party of Quebec is now back in government with a majority of seats and under the leadership of Philippe Couillard

Is the unequal COVID–19 burden in Canada due to unequal levels of citizen discipline across provinces?

The unequal burden of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis (e.g., in terms of infection and death rates) across Canadian provinces is important and puzzling. Some have speculated that differences in levels of citizen compliance with public health preventive measures are central to understanding cross-provincial differences in pandemic-related health outcomes. However, no systematic empirical test of this hypothesis has been conducted. In this research, we make use of an exceptionally large dataset that includes 23 survey waves (N = 22,610) fielded in Canada across 12 months (April 2020–April 2021) to answer the question “Is there evidence of substantial cross-provincial differences in citizen compliance with basic public health measures designed to prevent the spread of infection?” We find that regional differences in self-reported behaviour are few and very modest, suggesting that interprovincial differences in COVID-19–related health outcomes have little to do with differences in citizen compliance, at least in the first year of the pandemic. These results have important implications. Although it is crucial that we continue to study regional variations related to the COVID-19 burden, public health agency officials, pundits, and politicians should be cautious when musing about the role of citizen compliance as the primary explanation of interprovincial pandemic health outcomes