Evaluation of Future Streamflow in the Upper Part of the Nilwala River Basin (Sri Lanka) under Climate Change

Climate change is a serious and complex crisis that impacts humankind in different ways. It affects the availability of water resources, especially in the tropical regions of South Asia to a greater extent. However, the impact of climate change on water resources in Sri Lanka has been the least explored. Noteworthy, this is the first study in Sri Lanka that attempts to evaluate the impact of climate change in streamflow in a watershed located in the southern coastal belt of the island. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the climate change impact on streamflow of the Upper Nilwala River Basin (UNRB), Sri Lanka. In this study, the bias-corrected rainfall data from three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were fed into the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model to obtain future streamflow. Bias correction of future rainfall data in the Nilwala River Basin (NRB) was conducted using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM). Future precipitation was projected under three timelines: 2020s (2021–2047), 2050s (2048–2073), and 2080s (2074–2099) and was compared against the baseline period from 1980 to 2020. The ensemble mean annual precipitation in the NRB is expected to rise by 3.63%, 16.49%, and 12.82% under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, and 4.26%, 8.94%, and 18.04% under RCP 8.5 emission scenario during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The future annual streamflow of the UNRB is projected to increase by 59.30% and 65.79% under the ensemble RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, when compared to the baseline scenario. In addition, the seasonal flows are also expected to increase for both RCPs for all seasons with an exception during the southwest monsoon season in the 2015–2042 period under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In general, the results of the present study demonstrate that climate and streamflow of the NRB are expected to experience changes when compared to current climatic conditions. The results of the present study will be of major importance for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset the negative impacts of future changes in climate.publishedVersio

Comparing Combined 1D/2D and 2D Hydraulic Simulations Using High-Resolution Topographic Data: Examples from Sri Lanka—Lower Kelani River Basin

The application of numerical models to understand the behavioural pattern of a flood is widely found in the literature. However, the selection of an appropriate hydraulic model is highly essential to conduct reliable predictions. Predicting flood discharges and inundation extents are the two most important outcomes of flood simulations to stakeholders. Precise topographical data and channel geometries along a suitable hydraulic model are required to accurately predict floods. One-dimensional (1D) hydraulic models are now replaced by two-dimensional (2D) or combined 1D/2D models for higher performances. The Hydraulic Engineering Centre’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) has been widely used in all three forms for predicting flood characteristics. However, comparison studies among the 1D, 2D to 1D/2D models are limited in the literature to identify the better/best approach. Therefore, this research was carried out to identify the better approach using an example case study of the Kelani River basin in Sri Lanka. Two flood events (in 2016 and 2018) were separately simulated and tested for their accuracy using observed inundations and satellite-based inundations. It was found that the combined 1D/2D HEC-RAS hydraulic model outperforms other models for the prediction of flows and inundation for both flood events. Therefore, the combined model can be concluded as the better hydraulic model to predict flood characteristics of the Kelani River basin in Sri Lanka. With more flood studies, the conclusions can be more generalized.Comparing Combined 1D/2D and 2D Hydraulic Simulations Using High-Resolution Topographic Data: Examples from Sri Lanka—Lower Kelani River BasinpublishedVersio

Bioengineering Materials for Environment Protection in a Changing Climate

Climate change is one of the biggest problems of our times and passing the time climate extremes tend to increase both in magnitude and in frequency. Because the severity of the extreme climate events has increased, the interaction of these events with vulnerable human and natural systems has more frequently lead to disasters. Recent climate models projections have also shown a further substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. The prevision models\u2019 results also indicate that the global warming and the increase in frequency of temperature extremes could be strictly related to the anthropogenic forcing. The present special issue collects contributions representing new ideas on innovative materials and advanced technologies in the area of environmental engineering

Evaluation of Future Streamflow in the Upper Part of the Nilwala River Basin (Sri Lanka) under Climate Change

Climate change is a serious and complex crisis that impacts humankind in different ways. It affects the availability of water resources, especially in the tropical regions of South Asia to a greater extent. However, the impact of climate change on water resources in Sri Lanka has been the least explored. Noteworthy, this is the first study in Sri Lanka that attempts to evaluate the impact of climate change in streamflow in a watershed located in the southern coastal belt of the island. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the climate change impact on streamflow of the Upper Nilwala River Basin (UNRB), Sri Lanka. In this study, the bias-corrected rainfall data from three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were fed into the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model to obtain future streamflow. Bias correction of future rainfall data in the Nilwala River Basin (NRB) was conducted using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM). Future precipitation was projected under three timelines: 2020s (2021–2047), 2050s (2048–2073), and 2080s (2074–2099) and was compared against the baseline period from 1980 to 2020. The ensemble mean annual precipitation in the NRB is expected to rise by 3.63%, 16.49%, and 12.82% under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, and 4.26%, 8.94%, and 18.04% under RCP 8.5 emission scenario during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The future annual streamflow of the UNRB is projected to increase by 59.30% and 65.79% under the ensemble RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, when compared to the baseline scenario. In addition, the seasonal flows are also expected to increase for both RCPs for all seasons with an exception during the southwest monsoon season in the 2015–2042 period under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In general, the results of the present study demonstrate that climate and streamflow of the NRB are expected to experience changes when compared to current climatic conditions. The results of the present study will be of major importance for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset the negative impacts of future changes in climate

Data exploration on the factors associated with cost overrun on social housing projects in Trinidad and Tobago

This data article explores the factors that contribute to cost overrun on public sector projects within Trinidad and Tobago. The data was obtained through literature research, and structured questionnaires, designed using open-ended questions and the Likert scale. The responses were gathered from project actors and decision-makers within the public and private construction industry, mainly, project managers, contractors, engineers, architects, and consultants. The dataset was analysed using frequency, simple percentage, mean, risk impact, and fuzzy logic via the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method (FSE). The significance of the analysed data is to determine the critical root causes of cost overrun which affect public sector infrastructure development projects (PSIDPs), from being completed on time and within budget. The dataset is most useful to project and construction management professionals and academia, to provide additional insight into the understanding of the leading factors associated with cost overrun and the critical group in which they occur (political factors). Such understanding can encourage greater decisions under uncertainty and complexity, thus accounting for and reducing cost overrun on public sector projects

Improving flood forecasting in Narmada river basin using hierarchical clustering and hydrological modelling

The purpose of the study was to use hierarchical clustering and Thiessen polygon algorithms to identify the significant rain gauge stations for flood forecasting at Sardar Sarovar Dam. Rainfall data from 2010 to 2018 was utilized to analyze the catchment region between Omkareshwar Dam and Sardar Sarovar Dam. The study identified two clusters of rain gauge stations with similar rainfall patterns and divided the study area into seventeen regions using Thiessen polygons. The land use map showed that the study area was mostly covered by crop lands, and the soil map divided the area into three types of sedimentary claystone soil. A hydrological model, Hydrologic Engineering Center – Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), was used for rainfall-runoff modeling, and the computed runoff was compared with observed gauge discharge and inflow of Sardar Sarovar Dam. Regression analysis was performed to assess the performance of the model, and the results showed a good correlation between observed rainfall and estimated runoff values for 2012 and 2016. The study concludes that the existing rain gauge network is sufficient for flood forecasting, and the developed model along with the Thiessen polygon method can provide more accurate predictions of flow. The study highlights the importance of selecting suitable rain gauge stations for reliable flood forecasting in flood-prone basins. The study findings can be useful for future runoff prediction and flood forecasting in the study area

Comparing Combined 1D/2D and 2D Hydraulic Simulations Using High-Resolution Topographic Data: Examples from Sri Lanka—Lower Kelani River Basin

The application of numerical models to understand the behavioural pattern of a flood is widely found in the literature. However, the selection of an appropriate hydraulic model is highly essential to conduct reliable predictions. Predicting flood discharges and inundation extents are the two most important outcomes of flood simulations to stakeholders. Precise topographical data and channel geometries along a suitable hydraulic model are required to accurately predict floods. One-dimensional (1D) hydraulic models are now replaced by two-dimensional (2D) or combined 1D/2D models for higher performances. The Hydraulic Engineering Centre’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) has been widely used in all three forms for predicting flood characteristics. However, comparison studies among the 1D, 2D to 1D/2D models are limited in the literature to identify the better/best approach. Therefore, this research was carried out to identify the better approach using an example case study of the Kelani River basin in Sri Lanka. Two flood events (in 2016 and 2018) were separately simulated and tested for their accuracy using observed inundations and satellite-based inundations. It was found that the combined 1D/2D HEC-RAS hydraulic model outperforms other models for the prediction of flows and inundation for both flood events. Therefore, the combined model can be concluded as the better hydraulic model to predict flood characteristics of the Kelani River basin in Sri Lanka. With more flood studies, the conclusions can be more generalized

A simplified equation for calculating the water quality index (WQI), Kalu River, Sri Lanka

Abstract The water supply system plays a major role in the community. The water source is carefully selected based on quality, quantity, and reliability. The quality of water at its sources is continuously deteriorating due to various anthropogenic activities and is a major concern to public health as well. The Kalu River is one of the major water resources in Sri Lanka that supplies potable water to the Kalutara district (a highly populated area) and Rathnapura district. But, there has been no significant research or investigation to examine anthropogenic activities in the river. Due to this, it is difficult to find any proper study related to the overall water quality in the Kalu River. Therefore, this study covers a crucial part related to the water quality of the Kalu River. The spatiotemporal variation of river water quality is highly important not only to processing any treatment activities but also to implementing policy decisions. In this context, water quality management is a global concern as countries strive to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6, which aims to ensure the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all. Poor water quality can have severe consequences on human health, ecosystems, and economies. Contaminated water sources pose risks of waterborne diseases, reduced agricultural productivity, and ecological imbalances. Hence, assessing and improving water quality is crucial for achieving sustainable development worldwide. Therefore, this paper presents a comprehensive analysis of spatiotemporal analysis of the water quality of the Kalu River using the water quality data of eight locations for 6 years from 2017 to 2023. Nine water quality parameters, including the pH, electrical conductivity, temperature, chemical oxygen demand, biological oxygen demand, total nitrate, total phosphate, total sulfate, total chlorine, and hardness, were used to develop a simple equation to investigate the water quality index (WQI) of the river. Higher WQI values were not recorded near the famous Kalutara Bridge throughout the years, even though the area is highly urbanized and toured due to religious importance. Overall, the water quality of the river can be considered acceptable based on the results of the WQI. The country lockdowns due to COVID-19 might have impacted the results in 2020; this can be clearly seen with the variation of the annual WQI average, as it clearly indicates decreased levels of the WQI in the years 2020 and 2021, and again, the rise of the WQI level in 2022, as this time period corresponds to the lockdown season and relaxation of the lockdown season in the country. Somehow, for most cases in the Kalu River, the WQI level is well below 25, which can be considered acceptable and suitable for human purposes. But, it may need some attention towards the areas to find possible reasons that are not in the range. Nevertheless, the results suggest the importance of continuous water quality monitoring in the Kalu River