Infection Curve Flattening via Targeted Interventions and Self-Isolation

Understanding the impact of network clustering and small-world properties on epidemic spread can be crucial in developing effective strategies for managing and controlling infectious diseases. Particularly in this work, we study the impact of these network features on targeted intervention (e.g., self-isolation and quarantine). The targeted individuals for self-isolation are based on centrality measures and node influence metrics. Compared to our previous works on scale-free networks, small-world networks are considered in this paper. Small-world networks resemble real-world social and human networks. In this type of network, most nodes are not directly connected but can be reached through a few intermediaries (known as the small-worldness property). Real social networks, such as friendship networks, also exhibit this small-worldness property, where most people are connected through a relatively small number of intermediaries. We particularly study the epidemic curve flattening by centrality-based interventions/isolation over small-world networks. Our results show that high clustering while having low small-worldness (higher shortest path characteristics) implies flatter infection curves. In reality, a flatter infection curve implies that the number of new cases of a disease is spread out over a longer period of time, rather than a sharp and sudden increase in cases (a peak in epidemic). In turn, this reduces the strain on healthcare resources and helps to relieve the healthcare services

Epidemic modeling and flattening the infection curve in social networks

The main goal of this paper is to model the epidemic and flattening the infection curve of the social networks. Flattening the infection curve implies slowing down the spread of the disease and reducing the infection rate via social-distancing, isolation (quarantine) and vaccination. The nan-pharmaceutical methods are a much simpler and efficient way to control the spread of epidemic and infection rate. By specifying a target group with high centrality for isolation and quarantine one can reach a much flatter infection curve (related to Corona for example) without adding extra costs to health services. The aim of this research is, first, modeling the epidemic and, then, giving strategies and structural algorithms for targeted vaccination or targeted non-pharmaceutical methods for reducing the peak of the viral disease and flattening the infection curve. These methods are more efficient for nan-pharmaceutical interventions as finding the target quarantine group flattens the infection curve much easier. For this purpose, a few number of particular nodes with high centrality are isolated and the infection curve is analyzed. Our research shows meaningful results for flattening the infection curve only by isolating a few number of targeted nodes in the social network. The proposed methods are independent of the type of the disease and are effective for any viral disease, e.g., Covid-19.Comment: in Persian language. Journal of Modelling in Engineering 202

Favorable association between Mediterranean diet (MeD) and DASH with NAFLD among Iranian adults of the Amol Cohort Study (AmolCS)

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging cause of chronic liver diseases and a major health problem worldwide. Dietary patterns may play a critical role in controlling and preventing this disease, but the available evidence is scarce. The current study aims to ascertain the association of adherence to the Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet and Mediterranean diet (MeD) with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) among Iranian adults of the Amol Cohort Study (AmolCS). In a cross-sectional analysis among 3220 adults (55.3% men), age ≥ 18 years (46.96 ± 14.67), we measured usual dietary intake with a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and then calculated dietary pattern scores for DASH and MeD. Sociodemographic and lifestyle factors were collected by a structured questionnaire. The presence and degree of NAFLD were also determined by abdominal sonography. Multiple regression models were used to estimate NAFLD odds across tertiles of DASH and Mediterranean dietary scores. Dietary DASH and Mediterranean components were adjusted for total energy intake, based on the residual methods. After adjusting for multiple potential confounders, we found an inverse association of DASH and MeD with NAFLD (Ptrend = 0.02, and Ptrend = 0.002, respectively). Those in the highest tertiles of adherence to the DASH and MeD had the lowest risk for NAFLD (OR = 0.80, 95%CI = 0.66–0.96, OR = 0.64, 95%CI = 0.52–0.78, respectively). The results of logistic analysis of MeD, stratified by gender and abdominal obesity, revealed the favorable association was more pronounced in women (OR = 0.42, 95%CI = 0.29–0.61, Ptrend = 0.004), and in participants with or without abdominal obesity (OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.47–0.81, Ptrend = 0.03, OR = 0.64, 95%CI = 0.475–0.91, Ptrend = 0.04, respectively). Similar results were obtained for the adherence to DASH diet score with the prevalence of NAFLD patients with abdominal obesity (OR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57–0.97, Ptrend = 0.04). The findings suggested the favorable association between DASH and MeD with NAFLD in Iranian adults, especially women and subjects with or without abdominal obesity. Further prospective investigations are needed to confirm the integrity of our findings

Designing a new physical activity calorie equivalent food label and comparing its effect on caloric choices to that of the traffic light label among mothers: a mixed-method study

ObjectiveWe designed a new type of ‘physical activity calorie equivalent’ (PACE) food label in Iran to compare its effect with that of the traffic light food label (TLL) on caloric choices.DesignMixed-method study.ParticipantsMothers of school children between the ages of 6–12 years.SettingIn the qualitative phase, 10 focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with various groups of mothers, and two FGDs were conducted with food science and nutrition experts to design a new PACE label. In the quantitative phase, 496 mothers were randomly assigned to five groups: (1) no nutrition label, (2) current TLL, (3) current TLL + educational brochure, (4) PACE label, and (5) PACE label + brochure. Samples of dairy products, beverages, cakes, and biscuits were presented. ANOVA and multiple linear regressions were applied to examine the association between label types and calories of the selected products as our main outcome.ResultsThe mothers’ perspectives were classified into two sub-themes, the PACE label’s facilitators and barriers. The new PACE label’s characteristics were divided into two subcategories: (a) appearance, and (b) nutritional information, including 14 codes. In the quantitative section, mean calories of the selected foods were lowest in the TLL + brochure group (831.77 kcal; 95% CI: 794.23–869.32), and highest in the PACE label group (971.61; 95% CI: 926.37–1016.84).ConclusionThe new PACE label was a combination of PACE, TLL, and warning labels. It did not significantly affect lower caloric choice, however, the TLL + brochure option was effective in choosing foods with fewer calories.Clinical trial registration: The study was registered in the Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials 23 (IRCT20181002041201N1)

A population-based prospective study on obesity-related non-communicable diseases in northern Iran: rationale, study design, and baseline analysis

BackgroundIran is facing an epidemiological transition with the increasing burden of non-communicable diseases, such as obesity-related disorders and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). We conducted a population-based prospective study to assess the prevalence and incidence rates of CVDs and obesity-related metabolic disorders and to evaluate the predictive ability of various CVD risk assessment tools in an Iranian population.MethodWe enrolled 5,799 participants in Amol, a city in northern Iran, in 2009–2010 and carried out the first repeated measurement (RM) after seven years (2016–2017). For all participants, demographic, anthropometric, laboratory, hepatobiliary imaging, and electrocardiography data have been collected in the enrollment and the RM. After enrollment, all participants have been and will be followed up annually for 20 years, both actively and passively.ResultsWe adopted a multidisciplinary approach to overcome barriers to participation and achieved a 7-year follow-up success rate of 93.0% with an active follow-up of 5,394 participants aged 18–90 years. In the RM, about 64.0% of men and 81.2% of women were obese or overweight. In 2017, about 16.2% and 5.2% of men had moderate or severe non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, while women had a significantly higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome (35.9%), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (20.9%) than men. Of 160 deceased participants, 69 cases (43.1%) died due to CVDs over seven years.ConclusionThe most prevalent obesity-related chronic disease in the study was metabolic syndrome. Across the enrollment and RM phases, women exhibited a higher prevalence of obesity-related metabolic disorders. Focusing on obesity-related metabolic disorders in a population not represented previously and a multidisciplinary approach for enrolling and following up were the strengths of this study. The study outcomes offer an evidence base for future research and inform policies regarding non-communicable diseases in northern Iran

Association between thyroid disorders and COVID-19: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic initially appeared in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on 31 December 2019 and was spread rapidly worldwide. Most underlying diseases reported with COVID-19 patients are diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart diseases, and cerebrovascular disease. We do not know whether individuals with thyroid disease are at increased risk of COVID-19 infection. Methods Two experienced researchers will conduct an electronic search of the databases including PubMed/MEDLINE, the Cochrane Reviews, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science, Scopus, and ProQuest, for articles published since October 2019. Clinical trials and observational studies will be included. Studies will be screened after de-duplication. A standardized data extraction form will be developed through discussions with the review team and will be revised after piloting. An appropriate risk of bias assessment tool will be used to assess the quality of studies. Two independent reviewers will assess the eligibility, extraction of detailed information, and quality assessment of studies. The results will be pooled for meta-analysis, subgroup analysis and/or descriptive analysis based on the included data conditions. Conclusion Results of this study will provide current evidence on the association of COVID-19 diseases with any thyroid disorders such as hypothyroidism, thyrotoxicosis, and thyroid cancer with or without radioiodine therapy. Findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. Trial registration PROSPERO registration number: CRD42020184289. https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/#recordDetails </jats:sec

Social marketing-based interventions to promote healthy nutrition behaviors: a systematic review protocol

Abstract Background Diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rapidly increasing worldwide and constitute one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity. Improving population diets can play an important role in preventing and managing the diseases. Effective and efficient interventions are needed to promote healthy eating behaviors among people. The objective of this review will be to evaluate the effectiveness of social marketing-based interventions to promote healthy nutrition behaviors. Method The following electronic databases will be searched from January 1990 onwards: PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and CENTRAL. We will include randomized and non-randomized trials, quasi-experimental studies, observational studies (e.g., cohort, cross-sectional, and before and after studies) evaluating the social marketing-based intervention. The primary outcomes will be nutritional behaviors. Secondary outcomes will include the quality of life, nutritional status, and weight status. Two reviewers will independently screen all citations, full-text articles, and abstract data. The study methodological quality (or bias) will be appraised using an appropriate tool. If feasible, we will conduct random-effects meta-analysis. Additional analyses will be conducted to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity (e.g., age, sex, and socio-economic condition). Discussion This study will summarize the evidence regarding the interventions’ components, implementation methods, and effectiveness of interventions based on the social marketing framework to promote healthy nutrition behaviors. This review can provide policymakers with the information needed to make decisions and plan to promote healthy eating behaviors and understand the factors influencing the implementation of these programs. Systematic review registration CRD42020163972 </jats:sec

Additional file 1 of Association between thyroid disorders and COVID-19: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Additional file 1