But the Memory Remains: History, Memory and the 1923 Greco-Turkish Population Exchange

No abstrac

But the Memory Remains: History, Memory and the 1923 Greco-Turkish Population Exchange

No abstrac

Elisabeth Kontogiorgi, Population Exchange in Greek Macedonia: The Rural Settlement of Refugees 1922-1930, New York: Oxford University Press, 2006, 396 pages.

[ Δε διατίθεται περίληψη / no abstract available

News shocks and asset prices

We study the importance of anticipated shocks (news) for understanding the comovement between macroeconomic quantities and asset prices. We find that four-quarter anticipated investment shocks are an important source of fluctuations for macroeconomic variables: they account for about half of the variance in hours and investment. However, it is the four-quarter anticipated productivity shock that is driving a large fraction of consumption and most of the price-dividend ratio fluctuations. These productivity news are key for the model to reproduce the empirical tendency for stock-market valuations and excess returns to lead the business cycle. Importantly, a model that does not use asset price information in the estimation would downplay the role of productivity news; in this case, the model implies that return moves (almost) completely contemporaneously with the economic activity, counterfactually with the data

Role of biochemical parameters in the differential diagnosis of viable pregnancy, anembryonic pregnancy and intrauterine fetal exitus in cases of first trimester threatened abortion: Birinci trimester düşük tehdidi olan hastalarda anembriyonik gebelik, intrauterin eksitus ve sağlıklı gebeliğin ayırıcı tanısında biyokimyasal parametrelerin yeri

It is aimed to establish criteria about the prognosis and life potential of pregnancy by using ultrasonographic imaging techniques and hormonal parameters to evaluate embryonic life potantial in threatened miscarriage patients. Our study consists of 45 pregnant patients who were admitted for vaginal bleeding during pregnancy and were diagnosed as a threatened miscarriage. The study group consisted of pregnant women diagnosed with threat of miscarriage pregnancy week is lower than 20 weeks according to their last menstrual period. Estradiol, Progestrone, β-hCG hormone level are measured from patients, the same day after the ultrasound examination. The group whose pregnancy resulted with live birth and the group whose pregnancy ended with spontaneous abortion were statistically compared according to their hormonal parameters; it was found to be significantly lower in the group that resulted in live birth (p <0.01). Sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of β-hCG, E2, P4 levels were found to be significant in patients with threatened miscarriage. Increase both time loss and correct diagnosis rate, after vaginal speculum examination the first choice in patients with abortus imminens is to request a transvaginal ultrasonographic examination and then assesment of hormonal parameters (β-hCG, progesterone, estradiol) if necessary. ​Extended English summary is in the end of Full Text PDF (TURKISH) file. Özet   Düşük tehdidi olan hastalarda embriyonik yaşamın devamını değerlendirmek için ultrasonografik görüntüleme teknikleri ve hormonal belirteçleri kullanarak gebeliğin prognozu ve yaşam potansiyeli hakkında kriterler oluşturmak amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmamız, gebelikte vajinal kanama nedeniyle başvuran ve düşük tehdidi tanısı alan 45 gebe hastadan oluşmaktadır. Herhangi bir sistemik hastalığı bulunmayan ek bir jinekolojik patolojisi olmayan ve son adet tarihinden kesin olarak emin olan hastalar çalışma gruplarına dahil edildi. Çalışma grubu son adet tarihine göre 20 hafta ve daha küçük gestasyonel haftadaki düşük tehdidi tanısı alan gebelerden oluştu. Hastalardan Estradiol, Progestrone, β-hCG ölçümleri yapıldı. Gebeliği canlı doğum ile sonuçlanan grup ile gebeliği spontan abortusla sonlanan grubun β-hCG, P4, E2 degerleri istatiksel olarak karşılaştırıldığında; canlı doğum ile sonuçlanan grupta anlamlı olarak düşük bulunmuştur (p<0.01). Abortus imminensli hastalarda β-hCG, E2, P4 düzeylerinin sensivite spesifite, negatif ve pozitif prediktif değerleri anlamlı çıkmıştır. Abortus imminensli hastalarda vaginal muayene sonrası yapılacak ilk iş hem vakit kaybını hem de doğru tanı oranını arttırmak için ilk olarak transvajinal ultrasonografik inceleme ve ardından gerekirse hormonal parametreleri (β -hCG, progesteron, estradiol) istemek doğru olacaktır

Demand-supply imbalance risk and long-term swap spreads

We develop a model in which long-term swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for swaps, constrained dealers' supply of swaps, and the risk of future imbalances between demand and supply. Exploiting the sign restrictions implied by our model, we estimate these unobserved demand and supply factors using data on swap spreads and a proxy for dealers' swap arbitrage positions. We find that demand and supply play equally important roles in driving the observed variation in swap spreads. Yet, as predicted by the model, demand plays a more important role in shaping the expected returns on swap spread arbitrage, which embed a premium for bearing future demand-supply imbalance risk. Hedging activity from mortgage investors seems to play a key role in driving the demand for swaps. By contrast, the supply of swaps is closely linked to proxies for the tightness of dealers' constraints. Finally, our analysis helps explain the relationship between swap spreads and other no-arbitrage violations

Strategy-proof stochastic assignment

I study strategy-proof assignment mechanisms where the agents reveal their preference rankings over the available objects. A stochastic mechanism returns lotteries over deterministic assignments, and mechanisms are compared according to first-order stochastic dominance. I show that non-wasteful strategy-proof mechanisms are not dominated by strategy-proof mechanisms, however non-wastefulness is highly restrictive when the mechanism involves randomization. Infact, the Random Priority mechanism (i.e.,the Random Serial Dictatorship), and a recently adopted school choice mechanism, Deferred Acceptance with Random Tie-breaking, are wasteful. I find that both these mechanisms are dominated by strategy-proof mechanisms. In general, strategy proof improvement cannot be due to merely reshuffling objects, and therefore must involve assigning more objects

A novel approach for planning of shipbuilding processes

Shipbuilding is acknowledged as an uncertain, complex, and unique industrial effort that yields massive products consisting of numerous parts and is vulnerable to unexpected events. The industry is also dominated by customer requirements through designs tailor-made for a specific ship. Planning in shipbuilding is therefore considered a formidable process. Consequently, many studies have been conducted to develop a planning framework for the industry to efficiently handle planning process. Yet none of these studies are deemed substantial enough to be regarded as holistic, straightforward, well-accepted, and compatible with the nature of shipbuilding. This study is therefore an important contribution by presenting a novel, hybrid, and integrated general-purpose planning framework applicable to all shipbuilding processes. The novel method exploits historical ship construction scheduling data, synthesizing hierarchical planning, dynamic scheduling, and discrete-event simulation, which is validated through an empirical study in this paper