How Effective is Public Spending? Public Investment Composition and Rural Welfare in Ethiopia

One of the most important policy tools in developing countries for affecting economic growth and poverty reduction is expenditure policy. As governments decide how to allocate public spending, they need a clear understanding of how public investments translate into development outcomes. Using regional, zonal, and household-level data from Ethiopia, this paper analyses the relative returns, in terms of rural welfare, to different forms of public investment, including investment in agriculture, health, education, road infrastructure, and health.Public Economics,

Producer price and price transmission in a deregulated Ethiopian coffee market

Coffee producers in Ethiopia have historically received a very small share of the export price of green coffee. Reasons that are often mentioned are heavy government intervention and high marketing and processing costs. Prior to 1992, government regulation of the domestic coffee market in the form of fixed producer prices and the monopoly power of the Ethiopian Coffee Marketing Corporation put a substantial wedge between the producer price and the world price of coffee by imposing an implicit tax on producers. The domestic coffee marketing system in Ethiopia was liberalised after 1992, which was envisaged to have a positive effect on producer prices and price transmission signals from world markets to producers. This paper, with the help of Cointegration and Error-Correction Model (ECM), attempts to analyse its impact. As findings indicate, the reforms induced stronger long-run relationships among grower, wholesaler and exporter prices. The estimation of the ECM shows that the short-run transmission of price signals from world to domestic markets has improved, but has remained weak in both auction-to-world and producer-to-auction markets. This might be explained by the weak institutional arrangement coordinating the domestic coffee system and contract enforcement. In general, the domestic price adjusts more rapidly to world price changes today than it did prior to the reforms. However, there is an indication that negative price changes transmit much faster than positive ones.market deregulation, producer price, price transmission, price asymmetry,

Investigating economywide and household-level impacts of sector-specific shocks in a poor country: The case of avian flu in Ethiopia

Do the economic effects of potential avian flu outbreaks justify policy attention and resource allocation in a poor country like Ethiopia? We address this question by assessing both economywide (macro-level) economic impacts and household (micro-level) livelihood impacts that might be caused by an avian flu outbreak in Ethiopia. Because 1) the prevalent traditional poultry sector is weakly linked to other sectors, 2) livelihoods of the poultry-producing households are diversified, and 3) shocks are idiosyncratic in nature, the study finds that the impacts of an avian flu outbreak are likely to be small and limited to producers who keep larger flocks. Therefore, allotment of funds to prevent the disease must be justified on the grounds of preventing spread of the disease to human populations in Ethiopia and in other countries where it might have more severe economic and health effects. In other words, resource allocation must be justified as a global public good.avian flu, Livelihoods, multimarket model, simulations, probit, zero-inflated negative binomial, Propensity score matching,

Investigating the Role of Poultry in Livelihoods and the Impact of HPAI on Livelihoods Outcomes in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria

In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in the livelihoods portfolios of households and the impact of supply and demand shocks that may be caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on various livelihoods outcomes of households in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries in terms of disease status, role of poultry sector and means of disease spread. By using nationally representative household level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit model and zero inflated negative binomial model) we profile the household, farm and regional characteristics of those households who are most likely to keep poultry, and those who are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production, i.e., keep larger household flocks. We estimate the impact of the disease outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihood outcomes by using matching methods (i.e., propensity score matching). The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry producing households and the livelihood impacts of HPAI induced demand and supply shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted and hence efficient and effective HPAI control and mitigation policies.Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), demand shock, supply shock, livelihoods, probit model, zero inflated negative binomial model, propensity score matching, Livestock Production/Industries,

Performance of QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFTGIT) for the diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection in Afar Pastoralists, Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Currently, T-cell based gamma interferon (IFNγ) release assays (IGRAs) are acknowledged as the best methods available for the screening of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and also as aid for the diagnosis of active tuberculosis (TB). To our information, the performance of these diagnostic tests has not been evaluated in Ethiopia. Therefore, the intent of this study was to evaluate the performance of QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFTGIT) in patients clinically suspected of active pulmonary TB (PTB) as well as in healthy subjects prior to its utilization for the epidemiological study of active TB and LTBI in Afar pastoralists.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The sensitivity of QFTGIT was evaluated in 140 subjects who were clinically suspected of PTB using the cut-off value recommended by the manufacturer (≥ 0.35 IU/ml) and disease-specific cut-off value. Sputum culture result was used as a gold standard. The specificity of the test was evaluated both in patients and in 55 tuberculin skin test (TST) negative healthy subjects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Out of the 140 study participants, 37 (26.4%) were positive for active PTB by culture. Out of the 37 subjects who had positive results by culture, 6 individuals were HIV-seropositive. Out of the 103 subjects who were negative by culture, 6 subjects had indeterminate results and 21 were HIV-seropositive. The performance of the test was assessed using data from 107 (31 culture positive and 76 culture negative) individuals who were clinically suspected of PTB and HIV-seronegatives. Using the manufacturer recommended cut-off value, the sensitivity of the test was 64.5% (20/31), while its specificity was 36.8% (28/76). The sensitivity of the test was increased to 77.4%, while the specificity was reduced to 23.7% using a cut-off value ≥ 0.1 IU/ml of IFNγ as disease-specific cut-off value. In TST negative healthy subjects, the specificity of the test was 58.2%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings revealed a low sensitivity of QFTGIT in the diagnosis of <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) </it>infection in the present study area using the cut-off value recommended by the manufacturer. Nevertheless, the sensitivity increased from 64.5% to 77.4% by lowering the cut-off value recommended by the manufacturer to ≥ 0.1 IU/ml of IFNγ level. Hence, it is of practical importance to evaluate the performance of QFTGIT in population under different settings prior to its application either for the diagnosis of active TB or LTBI.</p

Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Ethiopia

Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reforms, national agricultural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,