Influence of enhanced Asian NOx emissions on ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in chemistry–climate model simulations

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) anticyclone is the most pronounced circulation pattern in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during northern hemispheric summer. ASM convection plays an important role in efficient vertical transport from the surface to the upper-level anticyclone. In this paper we investigate the potential impact of enhanced anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions on the distribution of ozone in the UTLS using the fully coupled aerosol–chemistry–climate model, ECHAM5-HAMMOZ. Ozone in the UTLS is influenced both by the convective uplift of ozone precursors and by the uplift of enhanced-NOx-induced tropospheric ozone anomalies. We performed anthropogenic NOx emission sensitivity experiments over India and China. In these simulations, covering the years 2000–2010, anthropogenic NOx emissions have been increased by 38 % over India and by 73 % over China with respect to the emission base year 2000. These emission increases are comparable to the observed linear trends of 3.8 % per year over India and 7.3 % per year over China during the period 2000 to 2010. Enhanced NOx emissions over India by 38 % and China by 73 % increase the ozone radiative forcing in the ASM anticyclone (15–40° N, 60–120° E) by 16.3 and 78.5 mW m−2 respectively. These elevated NOx emissions produce significant warming over the Tibetan Plateau and increase precipitation over India due to a strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation. However, increase in NOx emissions over India by 73 % (similar to the observed increase over China) results in large ozone production over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Tibetan Plateau. The higher ozone concentrations, in turn, induce a reversed monsoon Hadley circulation and negative precipitation anomalies over India. The associated subsidence suppresses vertical transport of NOx and ozone into the ASM anticyclone

The long-lived monsoon depressions of 2006 and their linkage with the Indian Ocean Dipole

A highlight of the 2006 boreal summer monsoon season was the enhanced activity of long-lived monsoon depressions and low-pressure systems (LPS) over the Indian region. Another important phenomenon during this period was the evolution of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (PIOD) event. Although previous studies have investigated the impact of PIOD on the large-scale monsoon response, their influence on monsoon LPS activity is not well understood. Based on detailed diagnostic analyses of monsoon LPS during 2006, as well as those associated with other PIOD events during 1958-2007, the present work addresses two specific issues concerning the roles of (a) PIOD-induced large-scale circulation changes and (b) internal feedbacks between latent heating and dynamics, in sustaining the monsoon LPS activity. The results show that PIOD conditions generally favour increased propensity of long-lived (>5 days) LPS with long westward tracks extending into northwest India. The average contribution of long-lived monsoon LPS to the total is found to be approximately 12 higher during PIOD episodes as compared to non-PIOD. The PIOD events showed two important large-scale elements conducive for enhancement of LPS activity: (a) strengthening of cross-equatorial moisture transport from south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean into the Bay of Bengal and (b) enrichment of barotropic instability of monsoon flow. Estimates of latent-heating profiles from TRMM-satellite products during the 2006 LPS showed heating in the mesoscale updrafts above 600 hPa with maximum approximately 400 hPa; while cooling prevailed in lower levels. Stratiform precipitation covered approximately 70-85 of rain area during the prolonged LPS; and the large-scale monsoon Hadley-type circulation was found to be intensified with strong mid-level inflows entering the stratiform rain region. The overall findings suggest that the PIOD-induced background circulation together with internal feedbacks between mesoscale convective systems and large-scale circulation can effectively enhance the longevity of monsoon LPS. These results should serve as important inputs for numerical weather forecasting of extreme rainfall events associated with the regional monsoon phenomenon

Assessment of the aerosol distribution over Indian subcontinent in CMIP5 models

This paper examines the aerosol distribution over Indian subcontinent as represented in 21 models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, wherein model simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) is compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite observations. The objective of the study is to provide an assessment of the capability of various global models, participating in CMIP5 project, in capturing the realistic spatial and temporal distribution of aerosol species over the Indian subcontinent. Results from our analysis show that majority of the CMIP5 models (excepting HADGEM2-ES, HADGEM2-CC) seriously underestimates the spatio-temporal variability of aerosol species over the Indian subcontinent, in particular over Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). Since IGP region is dominated by anthropogenic activities, high population density, and wind driven transport of dust and other aerosol species, MODIS observations reveal high AOD values over this region. Though the representation of black carbon (BC) loading in many models is fairly good, the dust loading is observed to be significantly low in majority of the models. The presence of pronounced dust activity over northern India and dust being one of the major constituent of aerosol species, the biases in dust loading has a great impact on the AOD of that region. We found that considerable biases in simulating the 850hPa wind field (which plays important role in transport of dust from adjacent deserts) would be the possible reason for poor representation of dust AOD and in turn total AOD over Indian region in CMIP5 models. In addition, aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) underestimated/overestimated in most of the models. However, spatial distribution of ARF in multi-model ensemble mean is comparable reasonably well with observations with bias in magnitudes. This analysis emphasizes the fundamental need to improve the representation of aerosol species in current state of the art climate models. As reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4), the level of scientific understanding (LOSU) of climatic impact of aerosols is medium-low. For better understanding of short and long term implications of changing concentrations of aerosol species on climate, it is imperative to have a realistic representation of aerosol distribution over regions with high aerosol loading

Double blanket effect caused by two layers of black carbon aerosols escalates warming in the Brahmaputra River Valley

First ever 3-day aircraft observations of vertical profiles of Black Carbon (BC) were obtained during the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) conducted on 30th August, 4th and 6th September 2009 over Guwahati (26°11′N, 91°44′E), the largest metropolitan city in the Brahmaputra River Valley (BRV) region. The results revealed that apart from the surface/near surface loading of BC due to anthropogenic processes causing a heating of 2 K/day, the large-scale Walker and Hadley atmospheric circulations associated with the Indian summer monsoon help in the formation of a second layer of black carbon in the upper atmosphere, which generates an upper atmospheric heating of ~2 K/day. Lofting of BC aerosols by these large-scale circulating atmospheric cells to the upper atmosphere (4–6 Km) could also be the reason for extreme climate change scenarios that are being witnessed in the BRV region

Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultra-high resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating