CliCrop: a Crop Water-Stress and Irrigation Demand Model for an Integrated Global Assessment Model Approach

http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/2264This paper describes the use of the CliCrop model in the context of climate change general assessment modeling. The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework is a global integrated assessment modeling framework that uses emission predictions and economic outputs from the MIT Emission Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model and earth system modeling predictions from the IGSM to drive a land system component, a crop model (CliCrop) and a Water Resource System (WRS) model. The global Agriculture and Water System are dependant upon and interlinked with the global climate system. As irrigated agriculture provides 60% of grains and 40% of all crop production on 20% of global crop lands and accounts for 80% of global water consumption, it is crucial that the agricultural-water linkage be properly modeled. Crop models are used to predict future yields, irrigation demand and to understand the effect of crop and soil type on food productivity and soil fertility. In the context of an integrated global assessment, a crop water-stress and irrigation demand model must meet certain specifications that are different for other crop models; it needs to be global, fast and generic with a minimal set of inputs. This paper describes how CliCrop models the physical and biological processes of crop growth and yield production and its use within the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, including the data inputs. This paper discusses the global data bases used as input to CliCrop and provides a comparison of the accuracy of CliCrop with the detailed biological-based crop model DSSAT as well as with measured crop yields over the U.S. at the country level using reanalyzed weather data. In both cases CliCrop performed well and the analysis validated its use for climate change impact assessment. We then show why correctly modeling the soil is important for irrigation demand calculation, especially in temperate areas. Finally, we discuss a method to estimate actual water withdrawal from modeled physical crop requirements using U.S. historical data.The initial funding for CliCrop was provided by USAID under a program on climate change adaptation in Niger. Further funding was provided by UN University World Institute for Development Economics Research for the Application and Development of CliCrop in Africa, the authors would like to particularly thank Prof. Finn Tarp, Prof. Channing Arndt and Dr. James Thurlow for their support. The authors also would like to thank Dr. Jawoo Koo of IFPRI for his review and contributions to the software development. The authors also gratefully acknowledge additional financial support for this work provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and Federal grants. Development of the IGSM applied in this research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science (DE-FG02-94ER61937); the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPRI, and other U.S. government agencies and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors

Dielectric Resonator Antenna Mounted on Cylindrical Ground Plane for Handheld RFID Reader at 5.8 GHz

Dielectric resonator antenna (DRA) mounted on cylindrical ground plane is investigated for handheld RFID reader applications at 5.8 GHz. The simplicity of the structure makes it practical in terms of cost, space, and ease of fabrication. The radiation characteristics of the antenna in free space and in the presence of a proposed compact reader device model and human hand are calculated. The antenna is circularly polarized and exhibits peak gain of 7.62 dB at 5.8 GHz with high front to back ratio of 15.5 dB. Using the same reader device model, a sequentially feeding 2×2 DRA array mounted on the same cylindrical ground plane is used for RFID reader antenna at 5.8 GHz. The array introduces high gain of 9.36 dB at 5.8 GHz with high front to back ratio of 10.48 dB. The 2×2 DRA array elements exhibit circular polarization over a frequency band of 1.1 GHz. The axial ratio is 1.1 dB at 5.8 GHz. The proposed reader model is simple and has a small size compared with that in the case of planar ground plane. The results are calculated using the finite element method (FEM) and compared with that calculated using the finite integral technique (FIT)

Radiation Characteristics Enhancement of Dielectric Resonator Antenna Using Solid/Discrete Dielectric Lenses

The radiation characteristics of the dielectric resonator antennas (DRA) is enhanced using different types of solid and discrete dielectric lenses. One of these approaches is by loading the DRA with planar superstrate, spherical lens, or by discrete lens (transmitarray). The dimensions and dielectric constant of each lens are optimized to maximize the gain of the DRA. A comparison between the radiations characteristics of the DRA loaded with different lenses are introduced. The design of the dielectric transmitarray depends on optimizing the heights of the dielectric material of the unit cell. The optimized transmitarray achieves 7 dBi extra gain over the single DRA with preserving the circular polarization. The proposed antenna is suitable for various applications that need high gain and focused antenna beam

Adverse pregnancy outcomes in sickle cell trait: a prospective cohort study evaluating clinical and haematological parameters in postpartum mothers and newborns

Background: Sickle cell trait (SCT) is a congenital condition caused by the inheritance of a single allele of the abnormal haemoglobin beta gene, HbS. Carriers of SCT are generally asymptomatic, and they do not manifest the clinical and haematological abnormalities of sickle cell anaemia (SCA). However, there is evidence that they display some symptoms in stressful situations. Pregnancy is a stressful physiological event, and it is not clear if SCT adversely affects pregnancy outcomes, particularly in those from developing countries where people regularly suffer from nutritional insufficiency. Objective: This study aims to investigate pregnancy outcomes in Sudanese women with SCT. Subjects and methods: Pregnant women with (HbAS, n=34) and without (HbAA, n=60) SCT were recruited during their first trimester at El Obeid Hospital, Kordofan, Western Sudan. Following appropriate ethical approval and informed consent from the participants, detailed anthropometric, clinical, haematological, obstetric, and birth outcome data were registered. In addition, blood samples were collected at enrolment and at delivery. Results: At enrolment in the first trimester, the SCT group did not manifest SCA symptoms, and there was no difference in the haematological parameters between the SCT and control groups. However, at delivery, the women with SCT, compared with the control group, had lower levels of hemoglobin (Hb, p=0.000), packed cell volume (PCV, p=0.000), mean corpuscular haemoglobin (MCH, p=0.002) and neutrophil counts (p=0.045) and higher mean corpuscular volume (MCV, p=0.000) and platelet counts (p=0.000). Similarly, at delivery, the babies of SCT women had lower birth weight (p=0.000), lower Hb (p=0.045), PCV (p=0.000), MCH (p=0.000), and higher neutrophil (p=0.004) and platelet counts (p=0.000) than the babies of the healthy control group. Additionally, there were more miscarriages, stillbirths, and admissions to the Special Care Baby Unit (SCBU) in the SCT group. Conclusions: The study revealed that SCT is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, including maternal and neonatal anaemia, low birth weight, and increased risk of stillbirth, miscarriage, and admission to SCBU. Therefore, pregnant women with SCT should be given appropriate pre-conceptual advice and multidisciplinary antenatal and postnatal care

Factors associated with quality of life of outpatients with breast cancer and gynecologic cancers and their family caregivers: a controlled study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Quality of life (QOL) issues are of interest in cancer because effective methods of treatment and detection have led to an increase in the number of long-term survivors. The objectives of the study were: to assess the subjective QOL of stable Sudanese women cancer outpatients and their family caregivers, using the WHO 26-item QOL Instrument; compare with matched general population groups, as well as diabetic and psychiatric patient groups; examine patient-caregiver concordance in ratings; and assess the variables associated with their QOL, with a view to identifying factors that can enhance quality of care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Responses of oncology outpatients with breast cancer (117), cervical cancer (46) and ovarian cancer (18) (aged 44.6, SD 11.5) were compared with those of their family caregivers and matched general population groups. Data were analyzed by univariate and multivariate statistics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The cancer groups had similar QOL domain scores, which were significantly lower than those of their caregivers, but higher than the control group as well as those of psychiatric and diabetic patients studied previously. Patients who were married, with higher education, better employment, and with longer duration of illness had higher QOL. Patients on radiotherapy and their caregivers had higher QOL scores. Correlations between patient's ratings and caregiver impression of patient's QOL were high. Caregiver impression was a significant predictor of patient's and caregiver's QOL. Other predictors for the patient were: currently feeling sick and duration of illness; for the caregiver: feeling sick, relationship to patient, and age.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Cancer patients in stable condition and with psychosocial support can hope to enjoy good QOL with treatment. The findings constitute an evidence base for the country's cancer care program, to boost national health education about prognosis in cancer. Families living with women cancer patients are vulnerable and need support if the patient is recently diagnosed, less educated, single, not formally employed; and the caregiver is female, parent, younger, less educated, unemployed and feels sick. Clinicians need to invest in the education and support of family caregivers. The patient-caregiver dyad should be regarded as a unit for treatment in cancer care.</p

Meta-GWAS Reveals Novel Genetic Variants Associated with Urinary Excretion of Uromodulin

Background Uromodulin, the most abundant protein excreted in normal urine, plays major roles in kidney physiology and disease. The mechanisms regulating the urinary excretion of uromodulin remain essentially unknown. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for raw (uUMOD) and indexed to creatinine (uUCR) urinary levels of uromodulin in 29,315 individuals of European ancestry from 13 cohorts. We tested the distribution of candidate genes in kidney segments and investigated the effects of keratin-40 (KRT40) on uromodulin processing. Results Two genome-wide significant signals were identified for uUMOD: a novel locus (P 1.24E-08) over the KRT40 gene coding for KRT40, a type 1 keratin expressed in the kidney, and the UMOD-PDILT locus (P 2.17E-88), with two independent sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms spread over UMOD and PDILT. Two genome-wide significant signals for uUCR were identified at the UMOD-PDILT locus and at the novel WDR72 locus previously associated with kidney function. The effect sizes for rs8067385, the index single nucleotide polymorphism in the KRT40 locus, were similar for both uUMOD and uUCR. KRT40 colocalized with uromodulin and modulating its expression in thick ascending limb (TAL) cells affected uromodulin processing and excretion. Conclusions Common variants in KRT40,WDR72, UMOD, and PDILT associate with the levels of uromodulin in urine. The expression of KRT40 affects uromodulin processing in TAL cells. These results, although limited by lack of replication, provide insights into the biology of uromodulin, the role of keratins in the kidney, and the influence of the UMOD-PDILT locus on kidney function

Electrocardiographic features of immune checkpoint inhibitor associated myocarditis

Background Myocarditis is a highly morbid complication of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) use that remains inadequately characterized. The QRS duration and the QTc interval are standardized electrocardiographic measures that are prolonged in other cardiac conditions; however, there are no data on their utility in ICI myocarditis. Methods From an international registry, ECG parameters were compared between 140 myocarditis cases and 179 controls across multiple time points (pre-ICI, on ICI prior to myocarditis, and at the time of myocarditis). The association between ECG values and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) was also tested. Results Both the QRS duration and QTc interval were similar between cases and controls prior to myocarditis. When compared with controls on an ICI (93±19 ms) or to baseline prior to myocarditis (97±19 ms), the QRS duration prolonged with myocarditis (110±22 ms, p<0.001 and p=0.009, respectively). In contrast, the QTc interval at the time of myocarditis (435±39 ms) was not increased compared with pre-myocarditis baseline (422±27 ms, p=0.42). A prolonged QRS duration conferred an increased risk of subsequent MACE (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.98 to 5.62, p<0.001). After adjustment, each 10 ms increase in the QRS duration conferred a 1.3-fold increase in the odds of MACE (95% CI 1.07 to 1.61, p=0.011). Conversely, there was no association between the QTc interval and MACE among men (HR 1.33, 95% CI 0.70 to 2.53, p=0.38) or women (HR 1.48, 95% CI 0.61 to 3.58, p=0.39). Conclusions The QRS duration is increased in ICI myocarditis and is associated with increased MACE risk. Use of this widely available ECG parameter may aid in ICI myocarditis diagnosis and risk-stratification

Novel Association Strategy with Copy Number Variation for Identifying New Risk Loci of Human Diseases

Copy number variations (CNV) are important causal genetic variations for human disease; however, the lack of a statistical model has impeded the systematic testing of CNVs associated with disease in large-scale cohort.Here, we developed a novel integrated strategy to test CNV-association in genome-wide case-control studies. We converted the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) signal to copy number states using a well-trained hidden Markov model. We mapped the susceptible CNV-loci through SNP site-specific testing to cope with the physiological complexity of CNVs. We also ensured the credibility of the associated CNVs through further window-based CNV-pattern clustering. Genome-wide data with seven diseases were used to test our strategy and, in total, we identified 36 new susceptible loci that are associated with CNVs for the seven diseases: 5 with bipolar disorder, 4 with coronary artery disease, 1 with Crohn's disease, 7 with hypertension, 9 with rheumatoid arthritis, 7 with type 1 diabetes and 3 with type 2 diabetes. Fifteen of these identified loci were validated through genotype-association and physiological function from previous studies, which provide further confidence for our results. Notably, the genes associated with bipolar disorder converged in the phosphoinositide/calcium signaling, a well-known affected pathway in bipolar disorder, which further supports that CNVs have impact on bipolar disorder.Our results demonstrated the effectiveness and robustness of our CNV-association analysis and provided an alternative avenue for discovering new associated loci of human diseases

The Spread of Tomato Yellow Leaf Curl Virus from the Middle East to the World

The ongoing global spread of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV; Genus Begomovirus, Family Geminiviridae) represents a serious looming threat to tomato production in all temperate parts of the world. Whereas determining where and when TYLCV movements have occurred could help curtail its spread and prevent future movements of related viruses, determining the consequences of past TYLCV movements could reveal the ecological and economic risks associated with similar viral invasions. Towards this end we applied Bayesian phylogeographic inference and recombination analyses to available TYLCV sequences (including those of 15 new Iranian full TYLCV genomes) and reconstructed a plausible history of TYLCV's diversification and movements throughout the world. In agreement with historical accounts, our results suggest that the first TYLCVs most probably arose somewhere in the Middle East between the 1930s and 1950s (with 95% highest probability density intervals 1905–1972) and that the global spread of TYLCV only began in the 1980s after the evolution of the TYLCV-Mld and -IL strains. Despite the global distribution of TYLCV we found no convincing evidence anywhere other than the Middle East and the Western Mediterranean of epidemiologically relevant TYLCV variants arising through recombination. Although the region around Iran is both the center of present day TYLCV diversity and the site of the most intensive ongoing TYLCV evolution, the evidence indicates that the region is epidemiologically isolated, which suggests that novel TYLCV variants found there are probably not direct global threats. We instead identify the Mediterranean basin as the main launch-pad of global TYLCV movements