Noise-precision tradeoff in predicting combinations of mutations and drugs.

Many biological problems involve the response to multiple perturbations. Examples include response to combinations of many drugs, and the effects of combinations of many mutations. Such problems have an exponentially large space of combinations, which makes it infeasible to cover the entire space experimentally. To overcome this problem, several formulae that predict the effect of drug combinations or fitness landscape values have been proposed. These formulae use the effects of single perturbations and pairs of perturbations to predict triplets and higher order combinations. Interestingly, different formulae perform best on different datasets. Here we use Pareto optimality theory to quantitatively explain why no formula is optimal for all datasets, due to an inherent bias-variance (noise-precision) tradeoff. We calculate the Pareto front of log-linear formulae and find that the optimal formula depends on properties of the dataset: the typical interaction strength and the experimental noise. This study provides an approach to choose a suitable prediction formula for a given dataset, in order to best overcome the combinatorial explosion problem

Prediction of drug cocktail effects when the number of measurements is limited.

Cocktails of drugs can be more effective than single drugs, because they can potentially work at lower doses and avoid resistance. However, it is impossible to test all drug cocktails drawn from a large set of drugs because of the huge number of combinations. To overcome this combinatorial explosion problem, one can sample a relatively small number of combinations and use a model to predict the rest. Recently, Zimmer and Katzir et al. presented a model that accurately predicted the effects of cocktails at all doses based on measuring pairs of drugs. This model requires measuring each pair at several different doses and uses interpolation to reduce experimental noise. However, often, it is not possible to measure each pair at multiple doses (for example, in scarce patient-derived tumor material or in large screens). Here, we ask whether measurements at only a single dose can also predict high-order drug cocktails. To address this, we present a fully factorial experimental dataset on all drug cocktails built of 6 chemotherapy drugs on 2 cancer cell lines. We develop a formula that uses only pair measurements at a single dose to predict much of the variation up to 6-drug cocktails in the present data, outperforming commonly used Bliss independence and regression approaches. This model, called the pairs model, is an extension of the Bliss independence model to pairs: For M drugs, it equals the product of all pair effects to the power 1/(M-1). The pairs model also shows good agreement with previously published data on antibiotic triplets and quadruplets. The present model can only predict combinations at the same doses in which the pairs were measured and is not able to predict effects at other doses. This study indicates that pair-based approaches might be able to usefully predict and prioritize high-order combinations, even in large screens or when material for testing is limited

Fold-change Response of Photosynthesis to Step Increases of Light Level

Summary: Plants experience light intensity over several orders of magnitude. High light is stressful, and plants have several protective feedback mechanisms against this stress. Here we asked how plants respond to sudden rises at low ambient light, far below stressful levels. For this, we studied the fluorescence of excited chlorophyll a of photosystem II in Arabidopsis thaliana plants in response to step increases in light level at different background illuminations. We found a response at low-medium light with characteristics of a sensory system: fold-change detection (FCD), Weber law, and exact adaptation, in which the response depends only on relative, and not absolute, light changes. We tested various FCD circuits and provide evidence for an incoherent feedforward mechanism upstream of known stress response feedback loops. These findings suggest that plant photosynthesis may have a sensory modality for low light background that responds early to small light increases, to prepare for damaging high light levels. : Biological Sciences; Systems Biology; Plant Biology Subject Areas: Biological Sciences, Systems Biology, Plant Biolog

Major depressive disorder and bistability in an HPA-CNS toggle switch.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is the most common psychiatric disorder. It has a complex and heterogeneous etiology. Most treatments take weeks to show effects and work well only for a fraction of the patients. Thus, new concepts are needed to understand MDD and its dynamics. One of the strong correlates of MDD is increased activity and dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis which produces the stress hormone cortisol. Existing mathematical models of the HPA axis describe its operation on the scale of hours, and thus are unable to explore the dynamic on the scale of weeks that characterizes many aspects of MDD. Here, we propose a mathematical model of MDD on the scale of weeks, a timescale provided by the growth of the HPA hormone glands under control of HPA hormones. We add to this the mutual inhibition of the HPA axis and the hippocampus and other regions of the central nervous system (CNS) that forms a toggle switch. The model shows bistability between euthymic and depressed states, with a slow timescale of weeks in its dynamics. It explains why prolonged but not acute stress can trigger a self-sustaining depressive episode that persists even after the stress is removed. The model explains the weeks timescale for drugs to take effect, as well as the dysregulation of the HPA axis in MDD, based on gland mass changes. This understanding of MDD dynamics may help to guide strategies for treatment

Creative foraging: An experimental paradigm for studying exploration and discovery

Creative exploration is central to science, art and cognitive development. However, research on creative exploration is limited by a lack of high-resolution automated paradigms. To address this, we present such an automated paradigm, the creative foraging game, in which people search for novel and valuable solutions in a large and well-defined space made of all possible shapes made of ten connected squares. Players discovered shape categories such as digits, letters, and airplanes as well as more abstract categories. They exploited each category, then dropped it to explore once again, and so on. Aligned with a prediction of optimal foraging theory (OFT), during exploration phases, people moved along meandering paths that are about three times longer than the shortest paths between shapes; when exploiting a category of related shapes, they moved along the shortest paths. The moment of discovery of a new category was usually done at a non-prototypical and ambiguous shape, which can serve as an experimental proxy for creative leaps. People showed individual differences in their search patterns, along a continuum between two strategies: a mercurial quick-to-discover/quick-to-drop strategy and a thorough slow-to-discover/slow-to-drop strategy. Contrary to optimal foraging theory, players leave exploitation to explore again far before categories are depleted. This paradigm opens the way for automated high-resolution study of creative exploration