Overestimates of Survival after HAART: Implications for Global Scale-Up Efforts

Background: Monitoring the effectiveness of global antiretroviral therapy scale-up efforts in resource-limited settings is a global health priority, but is complicated by high rates of losses to follow-up after treatment initiation. Determining definitive outcomes of these lost patients, and the effects of losses to follow-up on estimates of survival and risk factors for death after HAART, are key to monitoring the effectiveness of global HAART scale-up efforts. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cohort study comparing clinical outcomes and risk factors for death after HAART initiation as reported before and after tracing of patients lost to follow-up was conducted in Botswana's National Antiretroviral Therapy Program. 410 HIV-infected adults consecutively presenting for HAART were evaluated. The main outcome measures were death or loss to follow-up within the first year after HAART initiation. Of 68 patients initially categorized as lost, over half (58.8%) were confirmed dead after tracing. Patient tracing resulted in reporting of significantly lower survival rates when death was used as the outcome and losses to follow-up were censored [1-year Kaplan Meier survival estimate 0.92 (95% confidence interval, 0.88–0.94 before tracing and 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.86) after tracing, log rank P<0.001]. In addition, a significantly increased risk of death after HAART among men [adjusted hazard ratio 1.74 (95% confidence interval, 1.05–2.87)] would have been missed had patients not been traced [adjusted hazard ratio 1.41 (95% confidence interval, 0.65–3.05)]. Conclusions/Significance: Due to high rates of death among patients lost to follow-up after HAART, survival rates may be inaccurate and important risk factors for death may be missed if patients are not actively traced. Patient tracing and uniform reporting of outcomes after HAART are needed to enable accurate monitoring of global HAART scale-up efforts

Outcomes of the Botswana national HIV/AIDS treatment programme from 2002 to 2010: a longitudinal analysis

Background Short-term mortality rates among patients with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub- Saharan Africa are higher than those recorded in high-income countries, but systematic long-term comparisons have not been made because of the scarcity of available data. We analysed the eff ect of the implementation of Botswana’s national ART programme, known as Masa, from 2002 to 2010. Methods The Masa programme started on Jan 21, 2002. Patients who were eligible for ART according to national guidelines had their data collected prospectively through a clinical information system developed by the Botswana Ministry of Health. A dataset of all available electronic records for adults (≥18 years) who had enrolled by April 30, 2010, was extracted and sent to the study team. All data were anonymised before analysis. The primary outcome was mortality. To assess the eff ect of loss to follow-up, we did a series of sensitivity analyses assuming varying proportions of the population lost to follow-up to be dead. Findings We analysed the records of 126 263 patients, of whom 102 713 had documented initiation of ART. Median follow-up time was 35 months (IQR 14–56), with a median of eight follow-up visits (4–14). 15 270 patients were deemed lost to follow-up by the end of the study. 63% (78 866) of the study population were women; median age at baseline was 34 years for women (IQR 29–41) and 38 years for men (33–45). 10 230 (8%) deaths were documented during the 9 years of the study. Mortality was highest during the fi rst 3 months after treatment initiation at 12·8 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 12·4–13·2), but decreased to 1·16 deaths per 100 person-years (1·12–1·2) in the second year of treatment, and to 0·15 deaths per 100 person-years (0·09–0·25) over the next 7 years of follow-up. In each calendar year after the start of the Masa programme in 2002, average CD4 cell counts at enrolment increased (from 101 cells/μL [IQR 44–156] in 2002, to 191 cells/μL [115–239] in 2010). In each year, the proportion of the total enrolled population who died in that year decreased, from 63% (88 of 140) in 2002, to 0·8% (13 of 1599) in 2010. A sensitivity analysis assuming that 60% of the population lost to follow-up had died gave 3000 additional deaths, increasing overall mortality from 8% to 11–13%. Interpretation The Botswana national HIV/AIDS treatment programme reduced mortality among adults with HIV to levels much the same as in other low-income or middle-income countries

Five-year follow up of genotypic resistance patterns in HIV-1 subtype C infected patients in Botswana after failure of thymidine analogue-based regimens

Objective: Our objective was to establish genotypic resistance profiles among the 4% of Batswana patients who experienced virologic failure while being followed within Botswana's National Antiretroviral Treatment Program between 2002 and 2007. Methods: At the beginning of the national program in 2002, almost all patients received stavudine (d4T), together with didanosine (ddI), as part of their first nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI)-based regimen (Group 1). In contrast, the standard of care for all patients subsequently enrolled (2002-2007) included zidovudine/lamivudine (ZDV/3TC) (Group 2). Genotypes were analyzed in 26 patients from Group 1 and 37 patients from Group 2. Associations between mutations were determined using Pearson's correlation coefficient and Jaccard's coefficient of similarity. Results: Seventy-eight percent of genotyped patients possessed mutations associated with protease inhibitor (PI) resistance while 87% and 90%, respectively, exhibited mutations associated with NRTIs and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs). The most frequent PI mutations involving resistance to NFV were L90M (25.2%) and D30N (16.2%), but mutations at positions K45Q and D30N were often observed in tandem (P = 60.5, J = 50; p = 0.002; Group 2) alongside Q61E in 42.8% of patients who received ZDV/3TC. Both major patterns of thymidine analogue mutations, TAM 1 (48%) and TAM 2 (59%), were represented in patients from Group 1 and 2, although M184V was higher among individuals who had initially received ddI (61% versus 40.5%). In contrast, L74V was more frequent among individuals from Group 2 (16.2% versus 7.7%). Differences in regard to NNRTI mutations were also observed between Group 1 and Group 2 patients. Conclusion: Despite a low rate of therapeutic failure (4%) among these patients, those who failed possessed high numbers of resistance mutations as well as novel resistance mutations and/or polymorphisms at sites within reverse transcriptase and protease

Five years after Treat All implementation: Botswana's HIV response and future directions in the era of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: As the relentless coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread across Africa, Botswana could face challenges maintaining the pathway towards control of its HIV epidemic. OBJECTIVE: Utilising the Spectrum GOALS module (GOALS-2021), the 5-year outcomes from the implementation of the Treat All strategy were analysed and compared with the original 2016 Investment Case (2016-IC) projections. Future impact of adopting the new Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Global AIDS Strategy (2021-2026) targets and macroeconomic analysis estimating how the financial constraints from the COVID-19 pandemic could impact the available resources for Botswana's National HIV Response through 2030 were also considered. METHOD: Programmatic costs, population demographics, prevention and treatment outputs were determined. Previous 2016-IC data were uploaded for comparison, and inputs for the GOALS, AIM, DemProj, Resource Needs and Family Planning modules were derived from published reports, strategic plans, programmatic data and expert opinion. The economic projections were recalibrated with consideration of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Decreases in HIV infections, incidence and mortality rates were achieved. Increases in laboratory costs were offset by estimated decreases in the population of people living with HIV (PLWH). Moving forward, young women and others at high risk must be targeted in HIV prevention efforts, as Botswana transitions from a generalised to a more concentrated epidemic. CONCLUSION: The Treat All strategy contributed positively to decreases in new HIV infections, mortality and costs. If significant improvements in differentiated service delivery, increases in human resources and HIV prevention can be realised, Botswana could become one of the first countries with a previously high-burdened generalised HIV epidemic to gain epidemic control, despite the demands of the COVID-19 pandemic

Four-class drug-resistant HIV-1 subtype C in a treatment experienced individual on dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy in Botswana.

: There are limited data on the effectiveness of dolutegravir (DTG)-based combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in real-life settings in southern Africa where HIV-1 subtype C predominates. We report a patient infected with HIV-1 subtype C on DTG-based ART previously exposed to raltegravir who developed multidrug resistance mutations to four antiretroviral classes. There is need for drug resistance monitoring and clinical vigilance to ensure effectiveness of HIV treatment programs even in the era of DTG-based ART

Strengthening Healthcare Capacity Through a Responsive, Country-Specific, Training Standard: The KITSO AIDS Training Program’s Sup-port of Botswana’s National Antiretroviral Therapy Rollout

In parallel with the rollout of Botswana’s national antiretroviral therapy (ART) program, the Botswana Ministry of Health established the KITSO AIDS Training Program by entering into long-term partnerships with the Botswana–Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership for HIV Research and Education and others to provide standardized, country-specific training in HIV/AIDS care. The KITSO training model has strengthened human capacity within Botswana’s health sector and been indispensable to successful ART rollout. Through core and advanced training courses and clinical mentoring, different cadres of health care workers have been trained to provide high-quality HIV/AIDS care at all ART sites in the country. Continuous and standardized clinical education will be crucial to sustain the present level of care and successfully address future treatment challenges

Tracking cryptococcal meningitis to monitor HIV program success during the Treat-All era: an analysis of national data in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal meningitis causes substantial mortality in high-HIV prevalence African countries despite advances in disease management and increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage. Reliable diagnosis of cryptococcal meningitis is cheap and more accessible than other indicators of AHD burden such as CD4 testing or investigation for disseminated tuberculosis; therefore, monitoring cryptococcal meningitis incidence has the potential to serve as a valuable metric of HIV programmatic success. METHODS: Botswana national meningitis surveillance data from 2015 to 2022 were obtained from electronic health records. All electronic laboratory records from cerebrospinal fluid samples analysed within government healthcare facilities in Botswana were extracted from a central online repository. Adjustments for missing data were made through triangulation with prospective cohort study datasets. Cryptococcal meningitis case frequency was enumerated using a case definition and incidence calculated using national census data. RESULTS: A total of 1,744 episodes of cryptococcal meningitis were identified; incidence declined from 15.0 (95% CI 13.4-16.7) cases/100,000 person-years in 2015 to 7.4 (95% CI 6.4-8.6) cases/100,000 person-years in 2022. However, the rate of decline slowed following the introduction of universal treatment in 2016. The highest incidence was observed in men and individuals aged 40-44. The proportion of cases diagnosed through cryptococcal antigen testing increased from 35.5% to 86.3%. CONCLUSION: Cryptococcal meningitis incidence has decreased in Botswana following expansion of ART coverage but persists at a stubbornly high incidence. Most cases are now diagnosed through the cheap and easy-to-use cryptococcal antigen test highlighting the potential of using cryptococcal meningitis as key metric of programme success in the Treat All era

Discussing matters of sexual health with children: what issues relating to disclosure of parental HIV status reveal.

Little is published about the disclosure of parents' own HIV status to their children in Africa. Research shows that keeping family secrets from children, including those related to a parent's HIV status, can be detrimental to their psychological well-being and to the structure of the family. Further, children with HIV-positive parents have been shown to be more vulnerable to poorer reproductive health outcomes. This qualitative study in Botswana conducted in-depth interviews among 21 HIV-positive parents on antiretroviral therapy. The data revealed that parents found discussing the issue of HIV with children difficult, including disclosing their own HIV status to them. Reasons for disclosing included: children being HIV positive, the rest of the family knowing, or the parent becoming very sick. Reasons for not disclosing included: believing the child to be too young, not knowing how to address the issue of HIV, that it would be "too painful" for the child/ren. Concern that other people might find out about their status or fear of children experiencing stigmatising behaviour. Interviews elucidated the difficulty that parents have in discussing their own HIV status and more general sexual health issues with their children. Parents and other guardians require support in managing age-appropriate disclosure to their children. This may further enable access to forums that can help children cope with their fears about the future and develop life skills in preparation for dealing with relationships of a sexual nature and sexual health as children move into adulthood. In developing such support mechanisms, changing family roles in Botswana need to be taken into consideration and the role of other family members in the upbringing of children in Tswana society need to be recognised and utilised

Implementing HIV-1 genotypic resistance testing in antiretroviral therapy programs in Africa: needs, opportunities, and challenges.

Tremendous progress has been made with the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in Africa, with an estimated seven million people now receiving antiretroviral therapy in the region. The long-term success of antiretroviral therapy programs depends on appropriate strategies to deal with potential threats, one of which is the emergence and spread of antiretroviral drug resistance. Whilst public health surveillance forms the mainstay of the World Health Organization approach to antiretroviral drug resistance, there is likely to be increasing demand for access to drug resistance testing as programs mature and as HIV clinical management becomes more complex. African-owned research initiatives have helped to develop affordable resistance testing appropriate for use in the region, and have developed delivery models for resistance testing at different levels of the public health system. Some upper-middle-income countries such as Botswana and South Africa have introduced drug resistance testing for selected patient groups to guide clinical management. The scale-up of resistance testing will require substantial expansion of clinical and laboratory capacity in the region, but the expertise and resources exist in Africa to support this. The long-term population health impact and cost-effectiveness of resistance testing in the region will also require further investigation

The relationship of acceptance or denial of HIV-status to antiretroviral adherence among adult HIV patients in urban Botswana.

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV patients is the most important patient-enabled factor related to virological failure and can lead to drug resistance. It is important to avoid virological failure, especially in resource-limited settings where treatment options are limited and the effects of treatment failure are profound. This qualitative study aimed to identify the psycho-social factors related to adherence behaviour in Gaborone, Botswana, a high prevalence setting in southern Africa. One-to-one, in-depth interviews were conducted with adult antiretroviral patients in the private and public health sectors who had been on antiretroviral therapy for a minimum of 6 months. A grounded theory approach was adopted and patients were selected purposively and theoretical sampling determined the final sample size. Thirty-two patients were interviewed, 22 from the public-sector, the mean age was 9.5 years and 53% were women. We found that acceptance of HIV-status, the ability to avoid internalising stigmatising attitudes and identification of an encouraging confidante were key factors related to good adherence. Encouraging confidantes (including clinicians) and contributed to promoting hope and acceptance of HIV-status, enabling patients to develop a positive therapeutic relationship with their antiretrovirals and make lifestyle changes that promoted adherence. Active participation in a social network and a desire to avoid being thin and visibly identifiable as HIV-positive were also adherence-motivating factors. Conversely, participants who expressed some degree of denial about their HIV-status tended to express emotions associated with depression, and internalised stigma that inhibited the development of a relationship with a confidante. We feel it is important to identify individuals with HIV who are still in some degree of denial about their status and to identify depression among patients on antiretrovirals. This will enable more targeted, individualised support in the management of individuals' HIV disease