Optimizing Tobacco Advertising Bans in Seven Latin American Countries: Microsimulation Modeling of Health and Financial Impact to Inform Evidence-Based Policy

Introduction: In Latin America, tobacco smoking prevalence is between 6.4% and 35.2%. Governments have been making efforts to support the regulation of advertising and, in many cases, banning advertising and promotion of tobacco altogether. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact on health and economic outcomes of optimizing a ban on tobacco advertising and sponsorship in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. Methods: We built a probabilistic microsimulation model, considering natural history, direct health system costs, and quality of life impairment associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes on an annual basis to obtain aggregated 10-year population health outcomes (deaths, events, healthy years of life) and costs. To populate the model, we performed a rapid review of literature to calculate intervention effectiveness. Results: With current policies, over 10 years, in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia a total of 50,000 deaths and 364,000 disease events will be averted, saving $7.2 billion. If the seven countries strength-ened their policies and implemented a comprehensive ban with 100$15 billion in healthcare costs. Conclusions: Optimizing a ban on tobacco advertising and sponsorship would substantially reduce deaths, diseases, and health care costs attributed to smoking. Latin American countries should not delay the full implementation of this strategy.Fil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Alcaraz, Andrea. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Roberti, Javier Eugenio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Ciapponi, Agustín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Pichón-riviere, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentin

Eliminating artificial trans fatty acids in Argentina: estimated effects on the burden of coronary heart disease and costs

Objective: To estimate the impact of Argentine policies to reduce trans fatty acids (TFA) on coronary heart disease (CHD), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and associated health-care costs. Methods: We estimated the baseline intake of TFA before 2004 to be 1.5% of total energy intake. We built a policy model including baseline intake of TFA, the oils and fats used to replace artificial TFAs, the clinical effect of reducing artificial TFAs and the costs and DALYs saved due to averted CHD events. To calculate the percentage of reduction of CHD, we calculated CHD risks on a population-based sample before and after implementation. The effect of the policies was modelled in three ways, based on projected changes: (i) in plasma lipid profiles; (ii) in lipid and inflammatory biomarkers; and (iii) the results of prospective cohort studies. We also estimated the present economic value of DALYs and associated health-care costs of coronary heart disease averted. Findings: We estimated that projected changes in lipid profile would avert 301 deaths, 1066 acute CHD events, 5237 DALYs and 17 million United States dollars (US$) in health-care costs annually. Based on the adverse effects of TFA intake reported in prospective cohort studies, 1517 deaths, 5373 acute CHD events, 26 394 DALYs and US$ 87 million would be averted annually. Conclusion: Even under the most conservative scenario, reduction of TFA intake had a substantial effect on public health. These findings will help inform decision-makers in Argentina and other countries on the potential public health and economic impact of this policy.Fil: Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Elorriaga, Natalia. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Garay, Ulises. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Poggio, Rosana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Caporale, Joaquin. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Matta, Maria Gabriela. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Pichón-Riviere, Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Mozaffarian, Dariush. Tufts University; Estados Unido

Essential parameters for use in epidemiological models of COVID-19 in Argentina: a rapid review

INTRODUCCIÓN: Los modelos de simulación para COVID-19 requieren una serie de parámetros epidemiológicos que varían en base a cuestiones propias de cada región y al momento de la pandemia que se esté atravesando. OBJETIVO: Esta revisión rápida presenta los parámetros epidemiológicos esenciales potencialmente utilizables en Argentina. MÉTODOS: Se realizó una búsqueda en las principales bases de datos y en buscadores de artículos en estado de preimpresión (preprints) de parámetros relacionados con la propagación del virus y evolución de la enfermedad, y el uso del sistema de salud. Para revisar los artículos seleccionados se utilizó una herramienta de evaluación de calidad apropiada al diseño del estudio. RESULTADOS: De las variables relacionadas con la propagación y evolución; el período de incubación es de 5,8 días (intervalos de confianza [IC95%]: 4,83-6,85), el período de infecciosidad es de 6,25 días (IC95%: 5,09-7,51), el número básico de reproducción es de 3,32 (IC95%: 3,24-3,39), y la tasa de fatalidad en pacientes infectados fue de 0,64% (IC95%: 0,5-0,78). De las variables relacionadas con el uso del sistema de salud, el tiempo de internación hospitalaria es de 5 días (rango intercuartílico [RIC]: 3-9), el tiempo de internación en una unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI) es de 7 días (RIC: 4-11), el porcentaje de pacientes internados que requieren de UCI es de 26% (IC95%: 20-33) y, de estos, el porcentaje que requieren de ventilación mecánica es de 69% (IC95%: 61-75). DISCUSIÒN: Estudios recientes y datos de acceso públicos a nivel nacional muestran valores distintos a los relevados de la bibliografía internacional. La información recolectada en este trabajo puede contribuir a informar futuros modelamientos y tableros de control para predecir la dinámica de la epidemia en Argentina.INTRODUCTION: Simulation models for COVID-19 require a set of epidemiological parameters that vary according to regional issues and the timing of the pandemic. OBJECTIVE: This rapid review presents the essential epidemiological parameters potentially usable in Argentina. METHODS: A search of the main databases and search engines for articles in preprint status (preprints) of parameters related to the spread of the virus and evolution of the disease, and the use of the health system was carried out. A quality assessment tool appropriate to the study design was used to review the selected articles. RESULTS: Of the variables related to the spread and evolution; the incubation period is 5.8 days (confidence intervals [CI95%]: 4.83-6.85), the infectious period is 6.25 days (CI95%: 5.09-7.51), the basic reproduction number is 3.32 (CI95%: 3.24-3.39), and the fatality rate in infected patients was 0.64% (CI95%: 0.5-0.78). Of the variables related to health system use, the length of hospital stay was 5 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 3-9), the length of stay in an intensive care unit (ICU) was 7 days (IQR: 4-11), the percentage of hospitalized patients requiring ICU was 26% (CI95%: 20-33) and, of these, the percentage requiring mechanical ventilation was 69% (CI95%: 61-75). DISCUSSION: Recent studies and publicly available data at the national level show values different from those reported in the international literature. The information collected in this work may contribute to inform future modeling and dashboards to predict the dynamics of the epidemic in Argentina.Fil: Argento, Fernando Javier. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Rodriguez Cairoli, Federico. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Perelli, Lucas. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Pichon Riviere, Andrés. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentin

Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models

Background: Around 184,000 deaths per year could be attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption worldwide. Epidemiological and decision models are important tools to estimate disease burden. The purpose of this study was to identify models to assess the burden of diseases attributable to SSBs consumption or the potential impact of health interventions. Methods: We carried out a systematic review and literature search up to August 2018. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted, and assessed the quality of the included studies through an exhaustive description of each model’s features. Discrepancies were solved by consensus. The inclusion criteria were epidemiological or decision models evaluating SSBs health interventions or policies, and descriptive SSBs studies of decision models. Studies published before 2003, cost of illness studies and economic evaluations based on individual patient data were excluded. Results: We identified a total of 2766 references. Out of the 40 included studies, 45% were models specifically developed to address SSBs, 82.5% were conducted in high-income countries and 57.5% considered a health system perspective. The most common model’s outcomes were obesity/overweight (82.5%), diabetes (72.5%), cardiovascular disease (60%), mortality (52.5%), direct medical costs (57.35%), and healthy years -DALYs/QALYs- (40%) attributable to SSBs. 67.5% of the studies modelled the effect of SSBs on the outcomes either entirely through BMI or through BMI plus diabetes independently. Models were usually populated with inputs from national surveys -such us obesity prevalence, SSBs consumption-; and vital statistics (67.5%). Only 55% reported results by gender and 40% included children; 30% presented results by income level, and 25% by selected vulnerable groups. Most of the models evaluated at least one policy intervention to reduce SSBs consumption (92.5%), taxes being the most frequent strategy (75%). Conclusions: There is a wide range of modelling approaches of different complexity and information requirements to evaluate the burden of disease attributable to SSBs. Most of them take into account the impact on obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, mortality, and economic impact. Incorporating these tools to different countries could result in useful information for decision makers and the general population to promote a deeper implementation of policies to reduce SSBs consumption.Fil: Alcaraz, Andrea. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Pichón-riviere, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Palacios, Alfredo. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Balan, Dario Javier. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Perelli, Lucas. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Ciapponi, Agustín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentin

Identification and selection of health technologies for assessment by agencies in support of reimbursement decisions in Latin America

OBJECTIVE: There is no health system that has the resources to evaluate all technologies. The presence of a clear process to prioritize health technologies for assessment by health technology assessment (HTA) agencies is a good practice principle recognized at the international level. The objective of Health Technology Assessment International's 2020 Latin American Policy Forum (LatamPF) was to explore how to improve the way HTA agencies in Latin America identify and prioritize technologies for assessment. METHODS: This paper is based on a background document, a survey, and the deliberations of the members of the LatamPF (forty-six participants from eleven countries) using a design thinking methodology. RESULTS: Participants agreed that a lack of clear prioritization mechanisms results in HTA processes and decisions that are perceived to be of low transparency and overly exposed to political or interest group pressures. The LatamPF identified barriers and recommended actions to improve HTA prioritization mechanisms in Latin America. The criteria identified as the most important to be taken into consideration by HTA agencies in the region when prioritizing a technology for assessment were: the burden of illness, the potential clinical benefit, the alignment with national health priorities, the potential impact on equity, a lack of treatment alternatives for patients, and the potential economic impact. CONCLUSIONS: Forum participants agreed that the establishment of transparent prioritization processes is a key element for all health systems. Improvements in these processes will strengthen HTA and provide greater legitimacy to decision making.Fil: Pichón-riviere, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: García Martí, Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Alcaraz, Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Alfie, Verónica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Sampietro Colom, Laura. Hospital Clinic de Barcelona; Españ

Alcohol consumption’s attributable disease burden and cost-effectiveness of targeted public health interventions: a systematic review of mathematical models

Background: Around 6% of total deaths are related to alcohol consumption worldwide. Mathematical models are important tools to estimate disease burden and to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions to address this burden. Methods: We carried out a systematic review on models, searching main health literature databases up to July 2017. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted data and assessed the quality of the included studies. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. We selected those models exploring: a) disease burden (main metrics being attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life years, quality-adjusted life years) or b) economic evaluations of health interventions or policies, based on models including the aforementioned outcomes. We grouped models into broad families according to their common central methodological approach. Results: Out of 4295 reports identified, 63 met our inclusion criteria and were categorized in three main model families that were described in detail: 1) State transition-i.e Markov-models, 2) Life Table-based models and 3) Attributable fraction-based models. Most studies pertained to the latter one (n = 29, 48.3%). A few miscellaneous models could not be framed into these families. Conclusions: Our findings can be useful for future researchers and decision makers planning to undertake alcohol-related disease burden or cost-effectiveness studies. We found several different families of models. Countries interested in adopting relevant public health measures may choose or adapt the one deemed most convenient, based on the availability of existing data at the local level, burden of work, and public health and economic outcomes of interest.Fil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Alcaraz, Andrea Olga. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Ciapponi, Agustín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Garay, Osvaldo Ulises. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Pichón-riviere, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Palacios, Alfredo. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Cremonte, Mariana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Psicología Básica, Aplicada y Tecnología. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Psicología. Instituto de Psicología Básica, Aplicada y Tecnología; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentin

Impact assessment of the incorporation of the rotavirus vaccine in the province of San Luis – Argentina

Rotavirus (RV) is the main cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in young children. The San Luis province of Argentina introduced RV vaccination in May 2013. We estimate vaccine impact (RVI) using real-world data. Data on all-cause AGE cases and AGE-related hospitalisations for San Luis and the adjacent Mendoza province (control group) were obtained and analysed by interrupted time-series methods. Regardless of the model used for counterfactual predictions, we estimated a reduction in the number of all-cause AGE cases of 20-25% and a reduction in AGE-related hospitalisations of 55-60%. The vaccine impact was similar for each age group considered (<1 year, <2 years and <5 years). RV vaccination was estimated to have reduced direct medical costs in the province by about 4.5 million pesos from May 2013 to December 2014. Similar to previous studies, we found a higher impact of RV vaccination in preventing severe all-cause AGE cases requiring hospitalisation than in preventing all-cases AGE cases presenting for medical care. An assessment of the economic value of RV vaccination could take other benefits into account in addition to the avoided medical costs and the costs of vaccination.Fil: García Martí, Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Gibbons, Luz. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Loggia, V.. No especifíca;Fil: Lepetic, A.. No especifíca;Fil: Gómez, J.A.. No especifíca;Fil: Pichón-riviere, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentin

Cost-Effectiveness of a Comprehensive Approach for Hypertension Control in Low-Income Settings in Argentina: Trial-Based Analysis of the Hypertension Control Program in Argentina

Background: A recent cluster randomized trial evaluating a multicomponent intervention showed significant reductions in blood pressure in low-income hypertensive subjects in Argentina. Objectives: To assess the cost-effectiveness of this intervention. Methods: A total of 1432 hypertensive participants were recruited from 18 primary health care centers. The intervention included home visits led by community health workers, physician education, and text messaging. Resource use and quality of life data using the three-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire were prospectively collected. The study perspective was that of the public health care system, and the time horizon was 18 months. Intention-to-treat analysis was used to analyze cost and health outcomes (systolic blood pressure [SBP] change and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]). A 1 time gross domestic product per capita per QALY was used as the cost-effectiveness threshold (US $14,062). Results: Baseline characteristics were similar in the two arms. QALYs significantly increased by 0.06 (95$304 in the intervention group and US $154 in the control group (adjusted difference of US$140.18; 95% CI US $75.41–US$204.94). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $3299 per QALY (95$26 per mm Hg of SBP (95% credible interval 13–46). Subgroup analysis showed that the intervention was cost-effective in all prespecified subgroups (age, sex, cardiovascular risk, and body mass index). Conclusions: The multicomponent intervention was cost-effective for blood pressure control among low-income hypertensive patients.Fil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Chaparro, Martin. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Palacios, Alfredo. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Shi, Lizheng. University of Tulane; Estados UnidosFil: Beratarrechea, Andrea Gabriela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Irazola, Vilma. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Mills, Katherine. University of Tulane; Estados UnidosFil: He, Jiang. University of Tulane; Estados UnidosFil: Pichón-Riviere, Andrés. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Improving the monitoring of chronic heart failure in Argentina: is the implantable pulmonary artery pressure with CardioMEMS Heart Failure System cost-effective?

Background: The CardioMEMS® sensor is a wireless pulmonary artery pressure device used for monitoring symptomatic heart failure (HF). The use of CardioMEMS was associated with a reduction of hospitalizations of HF patients, but the acquisition cost could be high in low-and-middle income countries. Evidence of cost-effectiveness is needed to help decision-makers to allocate resources according to “value for money”. This study is aimed at estimating the cost-effectiveness of CardioMEMS used in HF patients from the third-party payer perspective -Social Security (SS) and Private Sector (PS)- in Argentina. Methods: A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of CardioMEMS versus usual medical care over a lifetime horizon. The model was applied to a hypothetical population of patients with HF functional class III with at least one hospitalization in the previous 12 months. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). To populate the model we retrieved clinical, epidemiological and utility parameters from the literature, whilst direct medical costs were estimated through a micro-costing approach (exchange rate USD 1 = ARS 76.95). Uncertainties in all parameters were assessed by deterministic, probabilistic and scenario sensitivity analysis. Results: Compared with the usual medical care, CardioMEMS increased quality-adjusted life years (QALY) by 0.37 and increased costs per patient by ARS 1,081,703 for SS and ARS 919,051 for PS. The resultant ICER was ARS 2,937,756 per QALY and ARS 2,496,015 per QALY for SS and PS, respectively. ICER was most sensitive to the hazard ratio of HF hospital admission and the acquisition price of CardioMEMS. The probability that CardioMEMS is cost-effective at one (ARS 700,473), three (ARS 2,101,419,) and five (ARS 3,502,363) Gross Domestic Product per capita is 0.6, 17.9 and 64.1% for SS and 5.4, 33.3 and 73.2% for PS. Conclusions: CardioMEMS was more effective and more costly than usual care in class III HF patients. Since in Argentina there is no current explicit threshold, the final decision to determine its cost-effectiveness will depend on the willingness-to-pay for QALYs in each health subsector.Fil: Alcaraz, Andrea. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Rojas Roque, Carlos. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Prina, Daniela Luciana. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: González, Juan Martín. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Pichón-riviere, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Palacios, Alfredo. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentin

An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina

We added a multi-sectoral economic framework to a SVEIR epidemiological model, combining the economic rationale of the DAEDALUS model with a detailed treatment of lockdown fatigue and declining compliance with Public Health and Social Measures reported in recent empirical work, to quantify the epidemic and economic benefits and costs of alternative lockdown and PHSM policies, both in terms of intensity and length. Our calibration replicates key features of the case and death-curves and economic cost for Argentina in 2021. The model allows us to quantify the short-term policy trade-off between lives and livelihoods and show that it can be significantly improved with targeted pharmaceutical policies such as vaccine rollout to reduce mainly severe disease and the death toll from COVID-19, as has been highlighted by previous studies.Fil: Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Levy Yeyati, Eduardo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; ArgentinaFil: López Osornio, Alejandro. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Filippini, Federico. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; ArgentinaFil: Santoro, Adrián. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Cejas, Cintia. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Palacios, Alfredo. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Argento, Fernando J.. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Balivian, Jamile. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Pichón-riviere, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentin