Epidemiological impact of travel enhancement on the inter-prefectural importation dynamics of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020

Mobility restrictions were widely practiced to reduce contact with others and prevent the spatial spread of COVID-19 infection. Using inter-prefectural mobility and epidemiological data, a statistical model was devised to predict the number of imported cases in each Japanese prefecture. The number of imported cases crossing prefectural borders in 2020 was predicted using inter-prefectural mobility rates based on mobile phone data and prevalence estimates in the origin prefectures. The simplistic model was quantified using surveillance data of cases with an inter-prefectural travel history. Subsequently, simulations were carried out to understand how imported cases vary with the mobility rate and prevalence at the origin. Overall, the predicted number of imported cases qualitatively captured the observed number of imported cases over time. Although Hokkaido and Okinawa are the northernmost and the southernmost prefectures, respectively, they were sensitive to differing prevalence rate in Tokyo and Osaka and the mobility rate. Additionally, other prefectures were sensitive to mobility change, assuming that an increment in the mobility rate was seen in all prefectures. Our findings indicate the need to account for the weight of an inter-prefectural mobility network when implementing countermeasures to restrict human movement. If the mobility rates were maintained lower than the observed rates, then the number of imported cases could have been maintained at substantially lower levels than the observed, thus potentially preventing the unnecessary spatial spread of COVID-19 in late 2020

A novel one-dimensional electronic state at IrTe2 Surface

Highly one-dimensional (1D) Fermi sheets are realized at the surface of a layered Ir telluride IrTe2 which exhibits a stripe-type charge and orbital order below ∼280 K. The 1D Fermi sheets appear in the low temperature range where the stripe order is well established. The 1D Fermi sheets are truncated by the bulk Fermi surfaces, and the spectral weight suppression at the Fermi level deviates from the typical Tomonaga–Luttinger behavior. The 1D band runs along the stripe and is accompanied by several branches which can be derived from the quantization in the perpendicular direction

Development of a novel artificial intelligence algorithm to detect pulmonary nodules on chest radiography

Background: In this study, we aimed to develop a novel artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm to support pulmonary nodule detection, which will enable physicians to efficiently interpret chest radiographs for lung cancer diagnosis. Methods: We analyzed chest X-ray images obtained from a health examination center in Fukushima and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Chest X-ray 14 dataset. We categorized these data into two types: type A included both Fukushima and NIH datasets, and type B included only the Fukushima dataset. We also demonstrated pulmonary nodules in the form of a heatmap display on each chest radiograph and calculated the positive probability score as an index value. Results: Our novel AI algorithms had a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of 0.74, a sensitivity of 0.75, and a specificity of 0.60 for the type A dataset. For the type B dataset, the respective values were 0.79, 0.72, and 0.74. The algorithms in both the type A and B datasets were superior to the accuracy of radiologists and similar to previous studies. Conclusions: The proprietary AI algorithms had a similar accuracy for interpreting chest radiographs when compared with previous studies and radiologists. Especially, we could train a high quality AI algorithm, even with our small type B data set. However, further studies are needed to improve and further validate the accuracy of our AI algorithm

Transdisciplinary Joint Seminar Studies: Conflits et Interprétations

This report details the research activity carried out from 2009 to date under the Transdisciplinary Joint Seminar Studies of the universities of Aoyama Gakuin, Franche-Comté and Tsukuba. Through study sessions and conferences as well as individual research papers, the issue of conflict and interpretation is addressed across the specific fields of study from the three distinct considerations of circulation, representation and language. 要旨本報告は2009年から現在まで「青山学院大学・フランシュコンテ大学・筑波大学異分野共同セミナー」において行われた研究活動をまとめたものである。分科会、講演、ならびに個々の論文において論じられた「循環」「表象」「言語」の考察を通じて、「衝突」と「解釈」をめぐる諸問題が検証される

Validation of U.S. mortality prediction models for hospitalized heart failure in the United Kingdom and Japan: Validation of risk models in decompensated heart failure

Aims: Prognostic models for hospitalised heart failure (HHF) were developed predominantly for patients of European origin in the United States of America; it is unclear whether they perform similarly in other health-care systems or for different ethnicities. We sought to validate published prediction models for HHF in the United Kingdom (UK) & Japan.Methods and Results: Patients in the UK (894) and Japan (3,158) were prospectively enrolled and similar in terms of sex (~60% men) and median age (~77 years). Models predicted that British patients would have a higher mortality than Japanese, which was indeed true both for in-hospital [4.8% vs 2.5%] and 180-day [20.7% vs 9.5%] mortality. The model c-statistics for the published/derivation [range 0.70-0.76] and Japanese [range 0.75-0.77] cohorts were similar and higher than for the UK [0.62-0.75] but models consistently over-estimated mortality in Japan. For in-hospital mortality, OPTIMIZE-HF performed best, providing similar discrimination in published/derivation, UK and Japanese cohorts [c-indices: 0.75 (0.74-0.77); 0.75 (0.68 - 0.81) and 0.77 (0.70 - 0.83)], and least over-estimated mortality in Japan. For 180-day mortality, the cstatistics for ASCEND-HF were similar in published/derivation [0.70] and UK [0.69 (0.64 - 0.74)] cohorts but higher in Japan [0.75 (0.71 - 0.79)]; calibration was good in the UK but again over-estimated mortality in Japan.Conclusion: Calibration of published prediction models appear moderately accurate and unbiased when applied to British patients but consistently overestimate mortality in Japan. Identifying the reason why patients in Japan have a better than predicted prognosis is of great interest

Rationale and design of a randomized trial to test the safety and non‑inferiority of canagliflozin in patients with diabetes with chronic heart failure : the CANDLE trial

Background: Because type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated strongly with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases, the number of patients with diabetes with chronic heart failure is increasing steadily. However, clinical evidence of therapeutic strategies in such patients is still lacking. A recent randomized, placebo-controlled trial in patients with type 2 diabetes with high cardiovascular risk demonstrated that the SGLT2 inhibitor, empagliflozin, reduced the incidence of hospitalization for heart failure. Because SGLT2 inhibitors cause a reduction in body weight and blood pressure in addition to improving glycemic control, they have the potential to exert beneficial effects on the clinical pathophysiology of heart failure. The aim of the ongoing CANDLE trial is to test the safety and non-inferiority of canagliflozin, another SGLT2 inhibitor, compared with glimepiride, a sulfonylurea agent, in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic heart failure. Methods: A total of 250 patients with type 2 diabetes who are drug-naïve or taking any anti-diabetic agents and suffering from chronic heart failure with a New York Heart Association classification I to III will be randomized centrally into either canagliflozin or glimepiride groups (1: 1) using the dynamic allocation method stratified by age (<65, ≥65 year), HbA1c level (<6.5, ≥6.5 %), and left ventricular ejection fraction (<40, ≥40 %). After randomization, all the participants will be given the add-on study drug for 24 weeks in addition to their background therapy. The primary endpoint is the percentage change from baseline in NT-proBNP after 24 weeks of treatment. The key secondary endpoints after 24 weeks of treatment are the change from baseline in glycemic control, blood pressure, body weight, lipid profile, quality of life score related to heart failure, and cardiac and renal function. Discussion: The CANDLE trial is the first to assess the safety and non-inferiority of canagliflozin in comparison with glimepiride in patients with type 2 diabetes with chronic heart failure. This trial has the potential to evaluate the clinical safety and efficacy of canagliflozin on heart failure

Effects of elasticity on wall shear stress in patient-specific aneurysm of cerebral artery

The behavior of wall shear stress (WSS) was previously reported in a deformable aneurysm model using fluid-structure interactions. However, these findings have not been validated. In the present study, we examined the effect of elasticity (i.e. , deformation) on wall shear stress inside a cerebral aneurysm at the apex of a bifurcation using particle image velocimetry in vitro. The flow model simulated a human patient-specific aneurysm at the apex of the bifurcation of the middle cerebral artery. Flow characteristics by wall elasticity were examined for both elastic and non-deformable aneurysm models with pulsatile blood flow. The absolute temporally- and spatially-averaged WSS along the bleb wall was smaller in the elastic model than that in the non-deformable model. This small WSS may be related to attenuation of the WSS. Further, the WSS gradient had a finite value near the stagnation point of the aneurysm dome. Finally, the WSS gradient near the stagnation point was slightly smaller in the elastic model than that in the non-deformable model. These data suggest that elasticity of the aneurysm wall can affect the progression and rupture of aneurysms via hemodynamic stress

Mortality after admission for heart failure in the UK compared with Japan

Objective Mortality amongst patients hospitalised for heart failure (HHF) in Western and Asian countries may differ, but this has not been investigated using individual patient-level data (IPLD). We sought to remedy this through rigorous statistical analysis of HHF registries and variable selection from a systematic literature review.Methods and results IPLD from registries of HHF in Japan (n=3781) and the UK (n=894) were obtained. A systematic literature review identified 23 models for predicting outcome of HHF. Five variables appearing in 10 or more reports were strongly related to prognosis (systolic blood pressure, serum sodium concentration, age, blood urea nitrogen and creatinine). To compare mortality in the UK and Japan, variables were imputed in a propensity model using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and IPTW with logistic regression (doubly robust IPTW). Overall, patients in the UK were sicker and in-patient and post-discharge mortalities were greater, suggesting that the threshold for hospital admission was higher. Covariate-adjusted in-hospital mortality was similar in the UK and Japan (IPTW OR: 1.14, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.86), but 180-day postdischarge mortality was substantially higher in the UK (doubly robust IPTW OR: 2.33, 95% CI 1.58 to 3.43).Conclusions Despite robust methods to adjust for differences in patient characteristics and disease severity, HHF patients in the UK have roughly twice the mortality at 180 days compared with those in Japan. Similar analyses should be done using other data sets and in other countries to determine the consistency of these findings and identify factors that might inform healthcare policy and improve outcomes