Climate Related Business Continuity Model for Critical Infrastructures

Climate change is more and more nowadays acknowledged to be associated with the natural hazards for which the society, and its Critical Infrastructures, need to anticipate and plan. The impact the climate-related hazards have to the functionality of different Critical Infrastructures (CI) is being discussed, focusing on the minimization of the disruption time of their critical services. This is achieved by means of a Business Continuity plan that is based on Business Impact Analysis and Risk Assessment of projected weather-related hazards. Business continuity planning is essential part of the resilience framework of the CIs, which EU-CIRCLE project proposes with regards to climate change. Guidelines are presented in order to provide a planned and controlled method for anticipating and responding to events that are likely to interrupt key business activities (Business Continuity Model) and suggestions upon adaptation of CIs to climate change are also given. For this purpose, information was collected from CI operators with regards to existing BC plans and adaptation measurements, by means of questionnaires, which is also presented herein.</p

Giving life to the map can save more lives. Wildfire scenario with interoperable simulations

Abstract. In the Mediterranean region, drier and hotter summers are leading to more likely and severe wildfires. The authors propose an innovative approach for situational awareness by giving life to maps and exploiting interoperable GIS, hazard models, simulations, and interconnection analysis processes aimed to enhance preparedness and strengthen the resilience of responding organizations. The information related to a virtual city and its countryside has been implemented in the terrain of simulation systems. The TIGER wildfire model software has been adapted to a scenario where districts, refugee camps and critical infrastructures can be impacted by a fire and has been linked to a smoke dispersion model, and associated impacts to the electricity network and roads. The transfer of computed fire propagation and combustion data to the AI-powered SWORD simulation enable more accurate computing of damage and loss. In SWORD, civil protection, military assets and humanitarian actions can be performed for training and operation preparation. The simulation data about fire and assets' deployments can feed a web app map or a command and control system, thus providing situational awareness for optimal decision-making, and analysis about people in danger, network interconnections and potential service disruption. Disaster managers and commanders can interact with simulated assets performing their chosen courses of action and analyse the outcomes.In conclusion, tests in a wildfire case study demonstrated a high level of interoperability among those systems and the possibility to provide updated situational awareness leading to better emergency preparedness and critical infrastructure resilience building, finally contributing to save more lives.</p

APPLICATION OF ADJOINT CMAQ CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODEL IN THE ATHENS GREATER AREA: SENSITIVITIES STUDY ON OZONE CONCENTRATIONS

An operational meteorology and air quality forecasting system is currently under development by the Environmental Research Laboratory of NCSR “Demokritos”. The system is based on the meteorological model MM5, the in-house EMISLAB emissions processing system and the chemical transport model CMAQ. It is configured to apply on the Greater Athens Area with a 4-domains nested configuration focusing on a high spatial resolution (1x1 km2) inner domain. The system produces meteorological and air quality predictions for a 72-hours time horizon with 1 hour time step. This paper uses the output of the operational system to apply the CMAQ adjoint for ozone sensitivity calculations, focusing for the two days of 18 and 19 July 2005. In the current study, the calculated ground level ozone concentrations at certain defined locations and times are considered as the “response functional”. Sensitivities of the response functional with respect to the state variables (species concentrations on the grid points and species emissions, e.g., NOX, CO, VOCs) are calculated by running the adjoint model backwards in time (reverse mode). The distribution of the sensitivities in the computational domain, obtained for different times, provides essential information for the analysis: isosurfaces of sensitivities delineate influence regions, i.e., areas where perturbations in some concentrations will result in significant changes in the ozone concentrations in the area of interest at the final time

Transitions to food democracy through multilevel governance

status: publishe

Transitions to food democracy through multilevel governance

Food systems in Europe are largely unjust and not sustainable. Despite substantial negative consequences for individual health, the environment and public sector health and care services, large multi-national corporations continue to benefit from the way food systems are designed—perpetuating “Lose–Lose–Lose–Win” food systems that see these large corporations benefit at the expense of health, the environment and public sector finances. Transitioning to “Win–Win–Win–Win” food systems is challenging because of the heterogeneity, complexity and unpredictable nature of food systems—one-size fits-all solutions to correct imbalances and injustices cannot exist. To address these challenges, we propose the use of heuristics—solutions that can flexibly account for different contexts, preferences and needs. Within food systems, food democracy could be a heuristic solution that provides the processes and can form the basis for driving just transitions. However, ensuring that these transition processes are fair, equitable, sustainable and constructive, requires an approach that can be used across vertical and horizontal governance spheres to ensure the voices of key stakeholders across space, time and spheres of power are accounted for. In this manuscript we outline a new Horizon project, FEAST, that aims to use multilevel governance approaches across vertical and horizontal spheres of governance to realize constructive food democracy. We envisage this as a means to inform just processes that can be used to design and implement policies, in line with food democracy, to facilitate transitions to “Win–Win–Win–Win” food systems across Europe that makes it easy for every European to eat a healthy and sustainable diet

A Review of Climate Change Impacts to Oil Sector Critical Services and Suggested Recommendations for Industry Uptake

Climate change already has far-reaching impacts on the oil industry, putting the operation, reliability, and growth of the sector at risk. Oil infrastructure has multi-decadal lifetime projections; thus, climate change and extreme weather events such as extreme temperatures, hurricanes, high winds, lightning strikes, storm surges, flooding, etc., pose an extra challenge to the oil supply chain, from upstream to downstream. In this paper, we review the climate change risk assessment frameworks, the impacts of climate change on oil infrastructure, and we identify gaps in the current knowledge, also suggesting future search directions on adapting the oil sector to climate change. The work overviews linkages between climate and oil industry design, operational, and service thresholds in a comprehensive hazard threshold matrix. Existing risk assessment methodologies that account for existing regulatory frameworks and interdependencies with other infrastructures are studied, leading to mitigation, adaptation, and sector resilience recommendations

DOES THE APPLICATION OF INNOVATIVE INTERNAL MODELS DIMINISH REGULATORY CAPITAL?

The broad spectrum and the increased complexity of financial products that compose modern portfolios have forced credit and financial institutions to focus on innovative and more effective ways of estimating market risks. These new approaches, very often, prove to be more conservative compared to traditional approaches in terms of market risk quantification. On the other hand, according to the Basel Committee evaluation framework, this conservatism is rewarded with lower multiplication factors when calculations of capital requirements take place. The present study elaborates on the comparison of several Value-at-Risk (VaR) methodologies based on the capital requirements they provide according to the Basel Committee regulatory framework.Value-at-Risk, Basel Committee, Extreme Value Theory, historical simulation

PRIVATE AND GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION IN TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

This paper investigates the presence of the relationship between private and government consumption through panel data techniques. Using a panel from different transitional countries, from 1990 to 2003, it applies the panel cointegration and causality methodologies. The study finds statistical evidence for a long run relationship between the variables under study. The empirical findings do not support the Ricardian Equivalence, since government consumption affects private consumption negatively in both methodological approaches.Private & Government Consumption, Ricardian Equivalence, Transitional Economies, Panel Data