Impact of the atmospheric circulation on the Arctic snow cover and ice thickness variability

The Arctic sea ice cover and thickness have significantly declined since the 1970s, while exhibiting large interannual variability. Snow cover on sea ice, acting as an insulating barrier, was shown to be instrumental in driving the variability and trends in sea-ice thickness. Yet, the Arctic snow depth remains scarcely measured and overlooked in climate models, which translates to “very limited predictive skill” according to the IPCC (Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate). Moreover, sea-ice thickness initialization has been shown to be an important element for skilful sea-ice forecasts, and it appears plausible that the same holds for the snow layer on top. Here, we investigate the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies in shaping the Arctic snow-cover and sea-ice thickness anomalies. In this preparatory work, spectral nudging of the large-scale atmospheric circulation towards ERA5 reanalysis data is applied to the fully coupled AWI Climate Model (AWI-CM-3). We examine the variability and trends of Arctic snowfall, snow depth, sea ice cover and thickness over a 42-year period (1979-2021), and in particular the reproduction of observed anomalies. Two nudging configurations are used, differing in strength by their relaxation timescale τ and spectral truncation wavenumber T (namely τ=24 h, T20 and τ=1 h, T159). We demonstrate the importance of atmospheric circulation anomalies in shaping variations of snow and ice thickness at sub-seasonal to interannual scales, and discuss the potential of spectral nudging as a tool to improve the initialization of sea ice forecasts

Atlantic Water Modification North of Svalbard in the Mercator Physical System From 2007 to 2020

The Atlantic Water (AW) inflow through Fram Strait, largest oceanic heat source to the Arctic Ocean, undergoes substantial modifications in the Western Nansen Basin (WNB). Evaluation of the Mercator system in the WNB, using 1,500 independent temperature‐salinity profiles and five years of mooring data, highlighted its performance in representing realistic AW inflow and hydrographic properties. In particular, favorable comparisons with mooring time‐series documenting deep winter mixed layers and changes in AW properties led us to examine winter conditions in the WNB over the 2007–2020 period. The model helped describe the interannual variations of winter mixed layers and documented several processes at stake in modifying AW beyond winter convection: trough outflows and lateral exchange through vigorous eddies. Recently modified AW, either via local convection or trough outflows, were identified as homogeneous layers of low buoyancy frequency. Over the 2007–2020 period, two winters stood out with extreme deep mixed layers in areas that used to be ice‐covered: 2017/18 over the northern Yermak Plateau‐Sofia Deep; 2012/13 on the continental slope northeast of Svalbard with the coldest and freshest modified AW of the 12‐year time series. The northern Yermak Plateau‐Sofia Deep and continental slope areas became “Marginal Convection Zones” in 2011 with, from then on, occasionally ice‐free conditions, 50‐m‐ocean temperatures always above 0 °C and highly variable mixed layer depths and ocean‐to‐atmosphere heat fluxes. In the WNB where observations require considerable efforts and resources, the Mercator system proved to be a good tool to assess Atlantic Water modifications in winter

Nudging allows direct evaluation of coupled climate models with in situ observations: a case study from the MOSAiC expedition

Comparing the output of general circulation models to observations is essential for assessing and improving the quality of models. While numerical weather prediction models are routinely assessed against a large array of observations, comparing climate models and observations usually requires long time series to build robust statistics. Here, we show that by nudging the large-scale atmospheric circulation in coupled climate models, model output can be compared to local observations for individual days. We illustrate this for three climate models during a period in April 2020 when a warm air intrusion reached the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in the central Arctic. Radiosondes, cloud remote sensing and surface flux observations from the MOSAiC expedition serve as reference observations. The climate models AWI-CM1/ECHAM and AWI-CM3/IFS miss the diurnal cycle of surface temperature in spring, likely because both models assume the snowpack on ice to have a uniform temperature. CAM6, a model that uses three layers to represent snow temperature, represents the diurnal cycle more realistically. During a cold and dry period with pervasive thin mixed-phase clouds, AWI-CM1/ECHAM only produces partial cloud cover and overestimates downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface. AWI-CM3/IFS produces a closed cloud cover but misses cloud liquid water. Our results show that nudging the large-scale circulation to the observed state allows a meaningful comparison of climate model output even to short-term observational campaigns. We suggest that nudging can simplify and accelerate the pathway from observations to climate model improvements and substantially extends the range of observations suitable for model evaluation

Predicting the Sea-Ice and Ocean State by Combining Sea-Ice and Ocean Data Assimilation with Atmospheric Wind Nudging

An oral presentation at () ISDA online event. Topic: Ocean Data Assimilatio

Changes in Arctic Halocline Waters along the East Siberian Slope and in the Makarov Basin from 2007 to 2020

The Makarov Basin halocline receives contributions from diverse water masses of Atlantic, Pacific, and East Siberian Sea origin. Changes in surface circulation (e.g., in the Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre) have been documented since the 2000s, while the upper ocean column in the Makarov Basin has received little attention. The evolution of the upper and lower halocline in the Makarov Basin and along the East Siberian Sea slope was examined combining drifting platforms observations, shipborne hydrographic data, and modelled fields from a global operational physical model. In 2015, the upper halocline in the Makarov Basin was warmer, fresher, and thicker compared to 2008 and 2017, likely resulting from the particularly westward extension of the Beaufort Gyre that year. From 2012-onwards, cold Atlantic-derived lower halocline waters, previously restricted to the Lomonosov Ridge area, progressed eastward along the East Siberian slope, with a sharp shift from 155 to 170°E above the 1000 m isobath in winter 2011-2012, followed by a progressive eastward motion after winter 2015-2016 and reached the western Chukchi Sea in 2017. In parallel, an active mixing between upwelled Atlantic water and shelf water along the slope, formed dense warm water which also supplied the Makarov Basin lower halocline. The progressive weakening of the halocline, together with shallower Atlantic Waters, is emblematic of a new Arctic Ocean regime that started in the early 2000s in the Eurasian Basin. Our results suggest that this new Arctic regime now may extend toward the Amerasian Basin

Changes in Atlantic Water circulation patterns and volume transports North of Svalbard over the last 12 years (2008-2020)

Atlantic Water (AW) enters the Arctic through Fram Strait as the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC). When reaching the south of Yermak Plateau, the WSC splits into the Svalbard, Yermak Pass and Yermak Branches. Downstream of Yermak Plateau, AW pathways remain unclear and uncertainties persist on how AW branches eventually merge and contribute to the boundary current along the continental slope. We took advantage of the good performance of the 1/12° Mercator Ocean model in the Western Nansen Basin (WNB) to examine the AW circulation and volume transports in the area. The model showed that the circulation changed in 2008-2020. The Yermak Branch strengthened over the northern Yermak Plateau, feeding the Return Yermak Branch along the eastern flank of the Plateau. West of Yermak Plateau, the Transpolar Drift likely shifted westward while AW recirculations progressed further north. Downstream of the Yermak Plateau, an offshore current developed above the 3800 m isobath, fed by waters from the Yermak Plateau tip. East of 18°E, enhanced mesoscale activity from the boundary current injected additional AW basin-ward, further contributing to the offshore circulation. A recurrent anticyclonic circulation in Sofia Deep developed, which also occasionally fed the western part of the offshore flow. The intensification of the circulation coincided with an overall warming in the upper WNB (0-1000 m), consistent with the progression of AW. This regional description of the changing circulation provides a background for the interpretation of upcoming observations

AWI-CM3 coupled climate model: Description and evaluation experiments for a prototype post-CMIP6 model

We developed a new version of the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM3), which has higher skills in representing the observed climatology and better computational efficiency than its predecessors. Its ocean component FESOM2 has the multi-resolution functionality typical for unstructured-mesh models while still featuring a scalability and efficiency similar to regular-grid models. The atmospheric component OpenIFS (CY43R3) enables the use of latest developments in the numerical weather prediction community in climate sciences. In this paper we describe the coupling of the model components and evaluate the model performance on a variable resolution (25–125 km) ocean mesh and a 61 km atmosphere grid, which serves as a reference and starting point for other on-going research activities with AWI-CM3. This includes the exploration of high and variable resolution, the development of a full Earth System Model as well as the creation of a new sea ice prediction system. At this early development stage and with the given coarse to medium resolutions, the model already features above CMIP6-average skills in representing the climatology and competitive model throughput. Finally we identify remaining biases and suggest further improvements to be made to the model

Overview of the MOSAiC expedition: Physical oceanography

Arctic Ocean properties and processes are highly relevant to the regional and global coupled climate system, yet still scarcely observed, especially in winter. Team OCEAN conducted a full year of physical oceanography observations as part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), a drift with the Arctic sea ice from October 2019 to September 2020. An international team designed and implemented the program to characterize the Arctic Ocean system in unprecedented detail, from the seafloor to the air-sea ice-ocean interface, from sub-mesoscales to pan-Arctic. The oceanographic measurements were coordinated with the other teams to explore the ocean physics and linkages to the climate and ecosystem. This paper introduces the major components of the physical oceanography program and complements the other team overviews of the MOSAiC observational program. Team OCEAN’s sampling strategy was designed around hydrographic ship-, ice- and autonomous platform-based measurements to improve the understanding of regional circulation and mixing processes. Measurements were carried out both routinely, with a regular schedule, and in response to storms or opening leads. Here we present along-drift time series of hydrographic properties, allowing insights into the seasonal and regional evolution of the water column from winter in the Laptev Sea to early summer in Fram Strait: freshening of the surface, deepening of the mixed layer, increase in temperature and salinity of the Atlantic Water. We also highlight the presence of Canada Basin deep water intrusions and a surface meltwater layer in leads. MOSAiC most likely was the most comprehensive program ever conducted over the ice-covered Arctic Ocean. While data analysis and interpretation are ongoing, the acquired datasets will support a wide range of physical oceanography and multi-disciplinary research. They will provide a significant foundation for assessing and advancing modeling capabilities in the Arctic Ocean

AWI-CM3 coupled climate model: description and evaluation experiments for a prototype post-CMIP6 model

We developed a new version of the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM3), which has higher skills in representing the observed climatology and better computational efficiency than its predecessors. Its ocean component FESOM2 (Finite-volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model) has the multi-resolution functionality typical of unstructured-mesh models while still featuring a scalability and efficiency similar to regular-grid models. The atmospheric component OpenIFS (CY43R3) enables the use of the latest developments in the numerical-weather-prediction community in climate sciences. In this paper we describe the coupling of the model components and evaluate the model performance on a variable-resolution (25-125 km) ocean mesh and a 61 km atmosphere grid, which serves as a reference and starting point for other ongoing research activities with AWI-CM3. This includes the exploration of high and variable resolution and the development of a full Earth system model as well as the creation of a new sea ice prediction system. At this early development stage and with the given coarse to medium resolutions, the model already features above-CMIP6-average skills (where CMIP6 denotes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) in representing the climatology and competitive model throughput. Finally we identify remaining biases and suggest further improvements to be made to the model