An approach to represent time series forecasting via fuzzy numbers

This paper introduces a new approach for estimating the uncertainty in the forecast through the construction of Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFNs). The interval of the proposed TFN presentation is generated from a Fuzzy logic based Lower and Upper Bound Estimator (FLUBE). Here, instead of the representing the forecast with a crisp value with a Prediction Interval (PI), the level of uncertainty associated with the point forecasts will be quantified by defining TFNs (linguistic terms) within the uncertainty interval provided by the FLUBE. This will give the opportunity to handle the forecast as linguistic terms which will increase the interpretability. Moreover, the proposed approach will provide valuable information about the accuracy of the forecast by providing a relative membership degree. The demonstrated results indicate that the proposed FLUBE based TFN representation is an efficient and useful approach to represent the uncertainty and the quality of the forecast

An enhanced fuzzy linguistic term generation and representation for time series forecasting

This paper introduces an enhancement to linguistic forecast representation using Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFNs) called Enhanced Linguistic Generation and Representation Approach (ElinGRA). Since there is always an error margin in the predictions, there is a need to define error bounds in the forecast. The interval of the proposed presentation is generated from a Fuzzy logic based Lower and Upper Bound Estimator (FLUBE) by getting the models of forecast errors. Thus, instead of a classical statistical approaches, the level of uncertainty associated with the point forecasts will be defined within the FLUBE bounds and these bound can be used for defining fuzzy linguistic terms for the forecasts. Here, ElinGRA is proposed to generate triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) for the predictions. In addition to opportunity to handle the forecast as linguistic terms which will increase the interpretability, ElinGRA improved forecast accuracy of constructed TFNs by adding an extra correction term. The results of the experiments, which are conducted on two data sets, show the benefit of using ElinGRA to represent the uncertainty and the quality of the forecast

Evaluation of paraoxonase, malondialdehyde, and lipoprotein levels in patients with asymptomatic cholelithiasis

Background/Aim: To compare lipoprotein and malondialdehyde levels and paraoxonase-1 activity between subjects with asymptomatic cholelithiasis and controls. Patients and Methods: Eighty subjects with asymptomatic cholelithiasis (55 women, 25 men, mean age: 51, SD 14 years) and 40 control subjects without cholelithiasis (25 women, 25 men, mean age: 51, SD 12 years) were enrolled to the study. Serum paraoxonase activity, lipoproteins, and malondialdehyde were measured. Results: In the cholelithiasis group, serum total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and malondialdehyde were significantly higher and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and paraoxonase-1 were significantly lower than the controls. In cholelithiasis patients with serum glucose level > 100 mg/dL, body mass index, serum total cholesterol, triglyceride (TG), and malondialdehyde levels were significantly higher than cholelithiasis patients with serum glucose level 100 mg/dL. In cholelithiasis patients with TG > 150 mg/dL, mean age, body mass index, glucose, total cholesterol, and malondialdehyde were significantly higher than in cholelithiasis patients with TG 150 mg/dL, HDL-C level and paraoxonase-1 activity were lower than in the cholelithiasis subgroup with TG < 150 mg/dL. All of the above comparisons were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Patients with asymptomatic cholelithiasis have evidence of increased lipid peroxidation and decreased antioxidant capacity. Patients with asymptomatic cholelithiasis with components of the metabolic syndrome have more lipid peroxidation and less antioxidant capacity than patients with asymptomatic cholelithiasis but without the components of the metabolic syndrome

Prognostic Significance of DR-70 Levels in Dysplastic Colorectal Polyps

Background. To investigate the relationship between DR-70 serum levels and dysplastic colon polyps. Materials and Methods. A total of 130 patients with adenomatous polyps detected by colonoscopy and divided into two groups including low versus high grade polyp, along with 50 healthy blood donors were included in the study. Blood samples from each participant were analyzed for serum CEA and DR-70 levels. Results. No statistically significant differences were observed between the two groups in terms of age or gender. The median DR-70 level was 0.5 μg/mL in the healthy control group and 1.1 μg/mL in group 1b (i.e., the high grade polyp) (P<0.001). DR-70 was higher in group 1b as compared to group 1a (P<0.001). However, the median DR-70 values for the low grade polyp group (i.e., group 1a) and the control group were similar (P=0.067). In order to determine independent predictors of high grade dysplasia, CEA, DR-70, polyp size, and age parameters were subjected to multiple logistical regression analyses via the Enter method; the model was statistically significant (P<0.001). Conclusions. DR-70, a marker used to measure FDP, which is generated by all major cancers, is a potential marker to identify patients with advanced adenomatous polyps, that is, precursors of colorectal cancer