Modélisation prospective et spécificités de la politique énergétique française

Cet article, avant relecture et correction pour la revue J3EA, a fait l'objet d'une communication aux journées 2007 de la section électrotechnique sur le thème Energie et Développement Durable à l'antenne de Bretagne de l'ENS de Cachan les 14 et 15 mars 2007.International audienceLes stratèges qui se préoccupent des questions liées à l'Energie, doivent, dans un contexte international complexe, se doter d'outils normatifs performants pour faire face à des contraintes multiformes (quotas d'émissions, taxes, ouverture des marchés, raréfaction de la ressource). Dans cet article, nous montrerons comment une optimisation technico-économique de la chaîne énergétique, au moyen du modèle MARKAL-France, permet à l'horizon 2050, une approche prospective pertinente des conséquences environnementales de différentes options de la politique énergétique française. En particulier, l'impact environnemental de ces choix sera évalué à travers le niveau des émissions de CO2

Energy Efficiency And The "triple 20" European Policy: Lessons Drawn From The French Case

http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/proceedingssearch.aspx?conference=Istanbul%2031st%20IAEE%20International%20ConferenceInternational audienceThis paper questions the relevance of the announced energy efficiency target (i.e. translated as energy consumption savings) as leverage for the GHG mitigation in the French case. We explore the impact of both primary and final energy consumption savings, when combined with a 20% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2020. This is done through long-term planning exercises using Markal/Times modeling tool for France. The results show the impact of energy consumption savings on the future energy mix. This is discussed through the “French model” framework, where a unique energy policy has lead the country to rely on the highest nuclear power share worldwide

Industrial and Environmental Impacts of an Expanding Bio-Energy Sector

Available on: http://www.iiis.org/CDs2011/CD2011SCI/EEEP_2011/PapersPdf/JA919AE.pdfInternational audienceIn the context of mitigating climate change and increasing energy security, the use of bio-energy production is expected to play a major role. However, an increased use of woody biomass sources for bio-energy production has in Sweden induced pressure on the woody biomass sources available and influenced forestry management. In this paper we analyze the competition of biomass sources and changes in management of woody resources induced by the joint expansion of the bioenergy sector and forest industries. Results show that increased demand of biomass sources may induce a short-term increase of forest harvesting. However, in the long-term, adequate biomass sources was found to be available to fulfill the joint demand of biomass sources for the production of bioenergy and woody produc

Power system and carbon capture under climate policy: a water impact analysis with TIAM-FR

International audienceAn increasing body of literature assesses the attainability of stringent CO2 mitigation targets (e.g. van Vuuren et al., 2007), depending on a wide range of different reduction options, and the technology 'readiness' of advanced technologies, in particular the industrial scale of carbon capture and storage (CCS)and the combination of bio-energy, carbon capture and geologic storage (BECCS). Introducing CCS to abate emissions appears more and more as incontrovertible to reduce future CO2 emissions in line with the consensual limit of 2°C temperature increase (IPCC, 2007b). This all the more if we consider that fossil fuels will remain the dominant sources of energy over the next decades and that, as a result, CO2 emissions will drastically increase to reach unsustainable levels. Furthermore, among the technological options to mitigate CO2 emissions, BECCS is gaining increasing attention, as this alternative offers a unique opportunity for a net carbon removal from the atmosphere while fulfilling energy needs (Herzog et al., 2005;Azaret al., 2006;van Vuuren et al., 2007; Katofsky et al., 2010)

Long term planning tools and reliability needs: focusing on the Reunion Island

http://ab3e.org.br/rio2010/conference-program/concurrent-sessions/june07/International audienceIn this paper, we tackle the issue of reliability of supply in future power systems. To build plausible options for future energy systems, long-term planning models such as the Markal/TIMES family of models must address the technological and economical feasibility of these options. This paper focuses on the electricity sector and how to take reliability into account when designing future power systems in long-term planning exercises. This approach is implemented and demonstrated through the development of a TIMES model for the Reunion Islan

Flexibility and reliability in long-term planning exercices dedicated to the electricity sector

Disponible sur le site du World Energy Council : http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/congresspapers/363.pdfInternational audienceLong-term planning models are useful to build plausible options for future energy systems and must consequently address the technological feasibility and associated cost of these options. This paper focuses on the electricity sector and on problems of exibility and reliability in power systems in order to improve results provided by long-term planning exercises: exibility needs are integrated as an additional criterion for new investment decisions and, reliability requirements are assessed through the level of electrical losses they induced and a related cost. These approaches are implemented in a long-term planning model and demonstrated through a study of the Reunion Island

Post-Kyoto policy implications on the energy system: A TIAM-FR long-term planning exercise

World Energy Council : http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/congresspapers/366.pdfInternational audienceThe aim of this study is to discuss the long term analysis of post-Kyoto commitments, with the modelling tool ETSAP-TIAM-FR. Through the specification of CO2 mitigation targets scenarios covering the period 2000-2050, this analysis focuses on the effects of these carbon constraints on several indicators such as global and regional CO2 emissions, the cost of the climate policy, carbon marginal costs, the primary energy consumption and the energy mix. This paper compares global efforts of CO2 mitigation with the cost of carbon and finally discusses the development of CCS technologies

TIMES model for the Reunion Island: addressing reliability of electricity supply

International audienceThe Reunion Island aims to have in 2030 an energy consumption based to 100% on renewable energy sources. In 2008, the total primary energy consumption was 1295 ktoe, and as most of small islands, the Reunion Island was highly dependent on fossil fuel imports (86.5%). This paper focuses on the target applied to the electricity sector, where the current use of renewable energy sources is 36%. To build plausible options for future energy systems, we rely on long-term planning models { such as the MARKAL/TIMES family of models. The MARKAL/TIMES models optimize energy systems in the long-term with an explicit bottom-up approach through a description of individual technologies. In this paper, we present the results obtained with a TIMES model dedicated to the supply and power sectors of the Reunion Island. We also tackle the technological and economical feasibilities of electricity systems provided by this model, considering in particular the incentives' system and the reliability of electricity supply

The cost of reliability of supply in future power systems

http://ab3e.org.br/rio2010/conference-program/concurrent-sessions/june-09/International audienceIn order to build plausible options for future energy systems, long-term planning models must consequently address the technological feasibility and associated cost of these options. This paper focuses on the electricity sector and on problems of reliability of supply for future power systems. We propose a methodology for assessing the reliability of power systems based on a number of aggregated physical properties. Our aim is to take reliability into account when designing future power systems and to improve results provided by long-term planning exercises

Shift from oil fueled cars for future sustainable mobilities

http://www.aaee.at/2009-IAEE/details.phpInternational audienceOver a 50 years period (2000-2050), required demands for energy services including mobility- differentiated in short and long distance travels- have to be satisfied simultaneously with a strong constraint on CO2 emission levels i.e. a reduction by 50 to 75% of the emissions by 2050 compared to their 1990 level (except international transportation). The systemic approach used ensures consistency of the results across all end-use sectors. This methodology is used to propose a focus on personal vehicles in order to highlight the long term relationship between carbon constraints, technologies road map and cross sectors effects