An empirical investigation of water consumption forecasting methods

Many regions on earth face daily limitations in the quantity and quality of the water resources available. As a result, it is necessary to implement reliable methodologies for water consumption forecasting that will enable the better management and planning of water resources. This research analyses, for the first time, a large database containing data from 2 million water meters in 274 unique postal codes, in one of the most densely populated areas of Europe, which faces issues of droughts and overconsumption in the hot summer months. Using the R programming language, we built and tested three alternative forecasting methodologies, employing univariate forecasting technique

NAFLD and HBV interplay - related mechanisms underlying liver disease progression

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and Hepatitis B virus infection (HBV) constitute common chronic liver diseases with worldwide distribution. NAFLD burden is expected to grow in the coming decade, especially in western countries, considering the increased incidence of diabetes and obesity. Despite the organized HBV vaccinations and use of anti-viral therapies globally, HBV infection remains endemic and challenging public health issue. As both NAFLD and HBV have been associated with the development of progressive fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the co-occurrence of both diseases has gained great research and clinical interest. The causative relationship between NAFLD and HBV infection has not been elucidated so far. Dysregulated fatty acid metabolism and lipotoxicity in NAFLD disease seems to initiate activation of signaling pathways that enhance pro-inflammatory responses and disrupt hepatocyte cell homeostasis, promoting progression of NAFLD disease to NASH, fibrosis and HCC and can affect HBV replication and immune encountering of HBV virus, which may further have impact on liver disease progression. Chronic HBV infection is suggested to have an influence on metabolic changes, which could lead to NAFLD development and the HBV-induced inflammatory responses and molecular pathways may constitute an aggravating factor in hepatic steatosis development. The observed altered immune homeostasis in both HBV infection and NAFLD could be associated with progression to HCC development. Elucidation of the possible mechanisms beyond HBV chronic infection and NAFLD diseases, which could lead to advanced liver disease or increase the risk for severe complications, in the case of HBV-NAFLD co-existence is of high clinical significance in the context of designing effective therapeutic targets

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice

Forecasting: theory and practice

peer reviewedForecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Psychoeducation, in the psychiatric wards, of relatives of schizophrenic patients during their hospitalization

We studied 60 patients who were hospitalized in the Psychiatric wards of the Department of Psychiatry of the University of Patras Medical School from 1996 to 1998. During hospitalization, the relatives of 30 patients received psychoeducation, in the psychiatric wards. The other 30 patients formed the control group. We evaluated both groups at three specific moments: Τ1 (admission), T2 (discharge), T3 (follow-up, one year after discharge). The patients were evaluated with the BPRS scale concerning psychopathology, with the GAS scale concerning functioning, with the ITAQ scale concerning insight, with the McEvoy scale concerning compliance with medication. In addition we recorded the amount of drugs received, and the number of relapses leading to hospitalization. The relatives were evaluated with the Economou scale concerning knowledge of the disease, with the FBS scale concerning family burden, with the FAS scale concerning family atmosphere, as well as with our scale concerning participation during the hospitalization. Our findings were the following: 1. The functioning of patients (between Τ1 and T3), whose relatives participated in psychoeducation, was statistically significantly greater, compared with that of the control group (117% improvement versus 51,5%, accordingly). 2. The compliance with medication of patients, whose relatives received psychoeducation, was statistically significantly greater one year after discharge, compared with that of the control group. The best compliance was positively related to smaller amount of drugs received by the patient one year after discharge (r=0,48, p<0,05). 3. Our findings showed 50% relapse leading to hospitalization for patients of families that did not receive psychoeducation, versus only 20% in the group of patients whose relatives received psychoeducation. 4. We found a tendency for greater decrease of the family burden in families that received psychoeducation (39% decrease) compared with the families that did not receive psychoeducation (22% decrease). 5. There was greater participation of relatives during the hospitalization of the patient, for families that received psychoeducation.Μελετήσαμε 60 ασθενείς που νοσηλεύτηκαν στην Ψυχιατρική Κλινική του Πανεπιστημίου Πατρών από το 1996 έως το 1998. Κατά τη διάρκεια της νοσηλείας τους έγινε ψυχοεκπαίδευση στο χώρο της κλινικής στους συγγενείς 30 ασθενών. Οι υπόλοιποι 30 αποτέλεσαν την ομάδα ελέγχου. Και οι δύο ομάδες εκτιμήθηκαν σε τρεις χρονικές στιγμές: Τ1 (Εισιτήριο), Ϊ2 (Εξιτήριο), Τ3 (Επανεκτίμηση μετά από ένα χρόνο). Οι ασθενείς εκτιμήθηκαν με την κλίμακα BPRS για την ψυχοπαθολογία, με την κλίμακα GAS για τη λειτουργικότητα τους, με την κλίμακα ITAQ για την εναισθησία, με την κλίμακα του McEvoy για τη συμμόρφωση με τη φαρμακευτική αγωγή, και τέλος καταγράφηκε η ποσότητα φαρμάκων που ελάμβαναν, καθώς και αν υποτροπίασαν και χρειάστηκε να νοσηλευτούν. Οι συγγενείς εκτιμήθηκαν σε σχέση με τις γνώσεις τους για τη νόσο με την κλίμακα της Οικονόμου Μ, σε σχέση με την οικογενειακή επιβάρυνση με την κλίμακα FBS, σε σχέση με την οικογενειακή ατμόσφαιρα με την κλίμακα FAS, καθώς και σε σχέση με τη συμμετοχή τους κατά τη διάρκεια της νοσηλείας με δική μας κλίμακα. Τα ευρήματα της μελέτης ήταν τα ακόλουθα: 1. Η λειτουργικότητα των ασθενών (μεταξύ των χρόνων Τ1και Τ3), των οποίων οι συγγενείς συμμετείχαν στην ψυχοεκπαίδευση, ήταν στατιστικά σημαντικά μεγαλύτερη σε σχέση με την ομάδα ελέγχου (βελτίωση 117% έναντι 51,5% αντίστοιχα). 2. Η συμμόρφωση με τη φαρμακευτική αγωγή των ασθενών, των οποίων οι συγγενείς ψυχοεκπαιδεύτηκαν, ήταν στατιστικά σημαντικά μεγαλύτερη ένα χρόνο μετά το εξιτήριο. Η καλύτερη συμμόρφωση συσχετίστηκε θετικά και με μικρότερη ποσότητα φαρμάκων που λαμβάνει ο ασθενής ένα χρόνο μετά το εξιτήριο (r=0,48, p<0,05). 3. Διαπιστώσαμε 50% υποτροπές με νοσηλεία για τους ασθενείς οικογενειών που δε συμμετείχαν στην ψυχοεκπαίδευση, ενώ αντίθετα μόνο 20% για τους ασθενείς, των οποίων τα μέλη της οικογένειας τους έλαβαν ψυχοεκπαίδευση. 4. Διαπιστώσαμε μία τάση μείωσης της οικογενειακής επιβάρυνσης, κυρίως στις οικογένειες, των οποίων τα μέλη έλαβαν ψυχοεκπαίδευση (μείωση κατά 39%), σε σχέση με αυτές που δεν έλαβαν (μείωση κατά 22%). 5. Υπήρξε μεγαλύτερη συμμετοχή των συγγενών κατά τη διάρκεια της νοσηλείας, για τις οικογένειες, των οποίων τα μέλη έλαβαν ψυχοεκπαίδευση

The National Identity of Inter‐war Greek Engineers: Elitism, Rationalization, Technocracy, and Reactionary Modernism

International audienceThis article deals with the national identity of Greek engineers in the inter‐war era. It attempts to highlight both the 'objective' dimensions (demography, education, sectors of activity, organization of profession) and the corresponding 'subjective' components of this identity. The paper shows that inter‐war Greek engineers were a socio‐professional group with strong elitist characteristics that claimed a leading social role in the country's modernization and westernization race. This was expressed in a variety of ideological schemes, from the rationalization ideal to technocracy and, ultimately, to a Greek version of reactionary modernism

Positron emission tomography imaging in gliomas

Glioma, the most frequent primary brain tumor in adults, is a highly infiltrative tumor exhibiting resistance to most treatments and associated with short survival of patients. Positron emission tomography (PET) imaging using various tracers takes advantage of the increased metabolic rate of neoplastic cells, in order to detect tumors and validate the treatment response. The most frequently used PET tracer, the (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG), is useful during the initial and follow-up assessment of patients with gliomas because it can assist in the selection of the initial biopsy site and to assess early response to a given therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, when there is tumor re-growth after an initial remission, FDG-PET can differentiate between true tumor recurrence versus necrosis from radiation therapy. Newly developed PET tracers may exhibit better sensitivity than FDG to diagnose primary brain tumors, but may occasionally produce false positive results in various conditions. In any event, PET is a useful tool in patients with central nervous system cancer during both initial assessment and follow-up