Identifying critically ill children in Malawi: A modified qSOFA score for low-resource settings.

In low-resource settings, a reliable bedside score for timely identification of children at risk of dying, could help focus resources and improve survival. The rapid bedside Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA) uses clinical parameters only and performed well in United Kingdom cohorts. A similarly quick clinical assessment-only score has however not yet been developed for paediatric populations in sub-Saharan Africa. In a development cohort of critically ill children in Malawi, we calculated the LqSOFA scores using age-adjusted heart rate and respiratory rate, capillary refill time and Blantyre Coma Scale, and evaluated its prognostic performance for mortality. An improved score, the Blantyre qSOFA (BqSOFA), was developed (omitting heart rate, adjusting respiratory rate cut-off values and adding pallor), subsequently validated in a second cohort of Malawian children, and compared with an existing score (FEAST-PET). Prognostic performance for mortality was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Mortality was 15.4% in the development (N = 493) and 22.0% in the validation cohort (N = 377). In the development cohort, discriminative ability (AUC) of the LqSOFA to predict mortality was 0.68 (95%-CI: 0.60-0.76). The BqSOFA and FEAST-PET yielded AUCs of 0.84 (95%-CI:0.79-0.89) and 0.83 (95%-CI:0.77-0.89) in the development cohort, and 0.74 (95%-CI:0.68-0.79) and 0.76 (95%-CI:0.70-0.82) in the validation cohort, respectively. We developed a simple prognostic score for Malawian children based on four clinical parameters which performed as well as a more complex score. The BqSOFA might be used to promptly identify critically ill children at risk of dying and prioritize hospital care in low-resource settings

Etiology, Pathophysiology and Mortality of Shock in Children in Low (Middle) Income Countries: A Systematic Review

Objectives: Shock is a life-threatening condition in children in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), with several controversies. This systematic review summarizes the etiology, pathophysiology and mortality of shock in children in LMIC. Methods: We searched for studies reporting on children with shock in LMIC in PubMed, Embase and through snowballing (up to 1 October 2019). Studies conducted in LMIC that reported on shock in children (1 month-18 years) were included. We excluded studies only containing data on neonates, cardiac surgery patients or iatrogenic causes. We presented prevalence data, pooled mortality estimates and conducted subgroup analyses per definition, region and disease. Etiology and pathophysiology data were systematically collected. Results: We identified 959 studies and included 59 studies of which six primarily studied shock. Definitions used for shock were classified into five groups. Prevalence of shock ranged from 1.5% in a pediatric hospital population to 44.3% in critically ill children. Pooled mortality estimates ranged between 3.9-33.3% for the five definition groups. Important etiologies included gastroenteritis, sepsis, malaria and severe anemia, which often coincided. The pathophysiology was poorly studied but suggests that in addition to hypovolemia, dissociative and cardiogenic shock are common in LMIC. Conclusions: Shock is associated with high mortality in hospitalized children in LMIC. Despite the importance few studies investigated shock and as a consequence limited data on etiology and pathophysiology of shock is available. A uniform bedside definition may help boost future studies unravelling shock etiology and pathophysiology in LMIC

Identifying critically ill children at risk of dying during hospital admission in Malawi: prognostic accuracy of a modified qSOFA score for low-resource settings

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In low-resource settings, a reliable bedside score to identify children at risk of dying could help focus resources and improve survival. The rapid bedside Liverpool quick sequential organ failure assessment (LqSOFA) uses clinical parameters only and performed well in the UK, but has not been validated in a low-resource setting. METHOD: In a cohort of critically ill children in Malawi, we calculated LqSOFA-scores using age-adjusted heart rate and respiratory rate, capillary refill time and Blantyre Coma Scale and evaluated its prognostic performance for mortality. An improved score, the Blantyre qSOFA (BqSOFA), was developed (omitting heart rate, adjusting respiratory rate cut-off values and adding pallor), subsequently validated in a second cohort of Malawian children, and compared with an existing more complex score (FEAST-PET). Prognostic performance for mortality was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Mortality was 15.4% in the derivation (n=493) and 22.0% in the validation cohort (n=377). In the derivation cohort, discriminative ability (AUC) of the LqSOFA to predict mortality was 0.68 (95%-CI: 0.60-0.76). The BqSOFA and FEAST-PET yielded AUCs of 0.84 (95%-CI: 0.79-0.89) and 0.83 (95%-CI: 0.77-0.89) in the derivation cohort, and 0.74 (95%-CI: 0.68-0.79) and 0.76 (95%-CI: 0.70-0.82) in the validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a simple prognostic score for Malawian children based on four clinical parameters which performed as well as more complex scores. The BqSOFA might be used to promptly identify critically ill children at risk of dying and prioritize hospital care in low-resource settings

Diagnostic categories in the aetiology population (N = 470), when applying the WHO definition (N = 15), as well as explorative analysis assessing associations between diagnostic category and mortality.

Diagnostic categories where based on the main discharge diagnosis by the clinician.</p

Inclusivity in global research.

Shock is considered one of the most important mechanisms of critical illness in children. However, data on paediatric shock in sub-Saharan Africa is limited, which constrains development of effective treatment strategies. We aimed to describe the prevalence, mortality, and aetiology of paediatric shock in a tertiary hospital in Malawi. Children aged two months to 16 years presenting with shock (FEAST criteria; respiratory distress and/or impaired consciousness, and at least one sign of impaired circulation; capillary refill>3 seconds, cold extremities, weak pulse, or severe tachycardia) to the emergency department were included and followed-up prospectively using routinely collected data between February 2019 and January 2020. Prevalence, mortality and aetiology of shock were reported for both the FEAST criteria and World Health Organization (WHO) definition. The association between aetiology and mortality was assessed with univariable analysis. Of all screened admissions (N = 12,840), 679 (5.3%) children presented with shock using FEAST criteria and the mortality was 79/663 (11.9%). WHO-defined shock applied to 16/12,840 (0.1%) and the mortality was 9/15 (60.0%). Main diagnoses were viral/reactive airway diseases (40.4%), severe pneumonia (14.3%), gastroenteritis (11.3%) and presumed sepsis (5.7%). Children diagnosed with presumed sepsis and gastroenteritis had the highest odds of dying (OR 11.3; 95%-CI:4.9–25.8 and OR 4.4; 95%-CI:2.4–8.2). Considering the high mortality, prevalence of paediatric shock (FEAST and WHO definitions) in Malawi is high. Sepsis and gastroenteritis are diagnoses associated with poor outcome in these children. Consensus on a clinical meaningful definition for paediatric shock is essential to boost future studies.</div

STROBE statement—Checklist of items that should be included in reports of observational studies.

STROBE statement—Checklist of items that should be included in reports of observational studies.</p

Description of variables used in this study.

Shock is considered one of the most important mechanisms of critical illness in children. However, data on paediatric shock in sub-Saharan Africa is limited, which constrains development of effective treatment strategies. We aimed to describe the prevalence, mortality, and aetiology of paediatric shock in a tertiary hospital in Malawi. Children aged two months to 16 years presenting with shock (FEAST criteria; respiratory distress and/or impaired consciousness, and at least one sign of impaired circulation; capillary refill>3 seconds, cold extremities, weak pulse, or severe tachycardia) to the emergency department were included and followed-up prospectively using routinely collected data between February 2019 and January 2020. Prevalence, mortality and aetiology of shock were reported for both the FEAST criteria and World Health Organization (WHO) definition. The association between aetiology and mortality was assessed with univariable analysis. Of all screened admissions (N = 12,840), 679 (5.3%) children presented with shock using FEAST criteria and the mortality was 79/663 (11.9%). WHO-defined shock applied to 16/12,840 (0.1%) and the mortality was 9/15 (60.0%). Main diagnoses were viral/reactive airway diseases (40.4%), severe pneumonia (14.3%), gastroenteritis (11.3%) and presumed sepsis (5.7%). Children diagnosed with presumed sepsis and gastroenteritis had the highest odds of dying (OR 11.3; 95%-CI:4.9–25.8 and OR 4.4; 95%-CI:2.4–8.2). Considering the high mortality, prevalence of paediatric shock (FEAST and WHO definitions) in Malawi is high. Sepsis and gastroenteritis are diagnoses associated with poor outcome in these children. Consensus on a clinical meaningful definition for paediatric shock is essential to boost future studies.</div

Case record form.

Shock is considered one of the most important mechanisms of critical illness in children. However, data on paediatric shock in sub-Saharan Africa is limited, which constrains development of effective treatment strategies. We aimed to describe the prevalence, mortality, and aetiology of paediatric shock in a tertiary hospital in Malawi. Children aged two months to 16 years presenting with shock (FEAST criteria; respiratory distress and/or impaired consciousness, and at least one sign of impaired circulation; capillary refill>3 seconds, cold extremities, weak pulse, or severe tachycardia) to the emergency department were included and followed-up prospectively using routinely collected data between February 2019 and January 2020. Prevalence, mortality and aetiology of shock were reported for both the FEAST criteria and World Health Organization (WHO) definition. The association between aetiology and mortality was assessed with univariable analysis. Of all screened admissions (N = 12,840), 679 (5.3%) children presented with shock using FEAST criteria and the mortality was 79/663 (11.9%). WHO-defined shock applied to 16/12,840 (0.1%) and the mortality was 9/15 (60.0%). Main diagnoses were viral/reactive airway diseases (40.4%), severe pneumonia (14.3%), gastroenteritis (11.3%) and presumed sepsis (5.7%). Children diagnosed with presumed sepsis and gastroenteritis had the highest odds of dying (OR 11.3; 95%-CI:4.9–25.8 and OR 4.4; 95%-CI:2.4–8.2). Considering the high mortality, prevalence of paediatric shock (FEAST and WHO definitions) in Malawi is high. Sepsis and gastroenteritis are diagnoses associated with poor outcome in these children. Consensus on a clinical meaningful definition for paediatric shock is essential to boost future studies.</div

Flow diagram of included children for different analysis stages.

The ‘eligible population’ consists of all children that meet the inclusion criteria. The ‘included population’ are children for whom consent was given for analysis of clinical characteristics and follow-up of these children. The ‘aetiology population’ consists of all children with known outcome and discharge/death diagnosis.</p

Definitions for shock used in the WHO ETAT guideline, FEAST trial and this study.

Definitions for shock used in the WHO ETAT guideline, FEAST trial and this study.</p