Human Computer Interaction, Art and Experience

With contributions from artists, scientists, curators, entrepreneurs and designers engaged in the creative arts, this book is an invaluable resource for both researchers and practitioners, working in this emerging field

Semiquantitative mapping of climate and land use change impacts on groundwater quality

This report details Task 2 (“Development of semi-quantitative national maps for assessment of potential impacts of Land Use and Climate Change and Groundwater Quality”) of Phase 2 of the Environment Agency-BGS collaborative project “climate and land use change impacts on groundwater quality”. This task has developed semi-quantitative maps of changes in contaminant source term risks associated with land use futures, accompanied by maps of metrics of changes in precipitation and temperature associated with climate change. The key findings of this task are as follows. An initial scoping workshop identified a very wide range of drivers, pressures, and groundwater quality variables of interest. It also identified a wide range of users of information, covering both technical and non-technical staff and a range of scales from national down to area and local. A literature review of relevant land use and climate change datasets showed that the land use futures developed under the SPEED project (Brown et al., 2022) associated with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were the most appropriate to use for this task, accompanied by climate change projections derived from UKCP18 and CHESS-SCAPE (Robinson et al., 2022). A semi-quantitative risk scoring methodology has been developed to link land use classes reported in the land use futures to contaminant source term risk. This methodology has been applied to land use futures under six scenarios and seven future time slices, with results summarised by EA areas and aquifers. Across the SSPs there is a divergence of changes in risk in some areas and commonality in others. Some common features across the SSPs include: stable land use (and limited change in contaminant risk) in eastern England associated with ongoing need for food production; afforestation (and reduction in contaminant risk) in southern England; urbanisation and intensification of arable land in northern England (an increase in contaminant risk). CHESS-SCAPE data has been processed to produce maps of changes in precipitation (seasonal mean and extreme temperature, number of wet days) and temperature (seasonal mean) metrics for 10-year timesteps to 2070 for 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Under RCP8.5 for 2070, this results in wetter winters (particularly in northern England and coastal southern England) and drier summers (particularly in southern England), with the largest increases in extreme winter precipitation in northwest England and on the south coast. The greatest rises in mean air temperature are in greatest temperature rises in Solent and South Downs and West Thames. The data generated in this task represent exploratory futures which are designed to support discussions with policymakers on the robustness of existing policies related to groundwater quality, and to inform spatial prioritisation of future work based on where risk is likely to be greatest. A next step would be to use the data generated in this task to inform the development of coupled water and pollutant models to quantitatively assess the impact of the land use futures on groundwater quality

Severe and predominantly active atopic eczema in adulthood and long term risk of cardiovascular disease: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether adults with atopic eczema are at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and whether the risk varies by atopic eczema severity and condition activity over time. DESIGN: Population based matched cohort study. SETTING: UK electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics, and data from the Office for National Statistics, 1998-2015. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with a diagnosis of atopic eczema, matched (on age, sex, general practice, and calendar time) to up to five patients without atopic eczema. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cardiovascular outcomes (myocardial infarction, unstable angina, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, and cardiovascular death). RESULTS: 387 439 patients with atopic eczema were matched to 1 528 477 patients without atopic eczema. The median age was 43 at cohort entry and 66% were female. Median follow-up was 5.1 years. Evidence of a 10% to 20% increased hazard for the non-fatal primary outcomes for patients with atopic eczema was found by using Cox regression stratified by matched set. There was a strong dose-response relation with severity of atopic eczema. Patients with severe atopic eczema had a 20% increase in the risk of stroke (hazard ratio 1.22, 99% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.48), 40% to 50% increase in the risk of myocardial infarction, unstable angina, atrial fibrillation, and cardiovascular death, and 70% increase in the risk of heart failure (hazard ratio 1.69, 99% confidence interval 1.38 to 2.06). Patients with the most active atopic eczema (active >50% of follow-up) were also at a greater risk of cardiovascular outcomes. Additional adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors as potential mediators partially attenuated the point estimates, though associations persisted for severe atopic eczema. CONCLUSIONS: Severe and predominantly active atopic eczema are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes. Targeting cardiovascular disease prevention strategies among these patients should be considered

Impacts of climate and land use change on groundwater quality in England : a scoping study

In 2019, the Environment Agency (EA) carried out a risk assessment following the government Climate Change Committee's methodology. This work highlighted groundwater quality as one area where the quality of the EA’s plan was weak, and progress in managing the risk was poor. In the same year, the UK parliament declared a climate emergency, and the COP26 summit in 2021 has brought climate change and the need to adapt into even stronger focus. This prompted the need for further evidence gathering and in 2021 the EA commissioned BGS to undertake a scoping study to explore the impacts of climate and land use change on groundwater quality. The study had the following objectives: (1) To determine what key risks to groundwater quality may be associated with climate change, (2) what adaptation and mitigation measures may be needed, (3) how EA groundwater quality monitoring may need to change in the future associated with climate change and (4) what are the research and evidence gaps associated with the impacts of climate and land use change on groundwater quality. The study addressed the aims above through a number of desk-based activities which are detailed in this report. A review of the findings of UKCP18 has illustrated the potential changes to the climate of England over the 21st century as context for changes in groundwater resources and quality. Air temperature, evapotranspiration and sea level are all predicted to increase throughout the 21st century. Whilst the direction of change in annual precipitation is unclear, wetter winters and drier summers are predicted, with greater magnitude extreme winter rainfall events. No published work has evaluated the impact of climate change based on UKCP18 data on groundwater recharge and levels. A review of previous studies using UKCP09 and other climate projections has shown limited consistency in the direction of change in long term average groundwater recharge and levels in England. There is some consistency in changes to seasonality in groundwater recharge and levels, with increased recharge and levels in winter, decreased recharge and levels in summer. There is limited evidence for changes in extremes (increasing high winter groundwater levels). A review of international literature related to climate change and groundwater quality has shown an overall worsening of groundwater quality over the next 50 – 80 years, although the trajectory of change for individual parameters is highly uncertain. Some parameters have a high level of confidence in a relationship with climate variables (e.g. shallow groundwater temperature and air temperature, sea level rise and salinity in coastal aquifers). However, for many components of climate change and water quality parameters, our understanding of relationships is near non-existent and speculative. A workshop was held on “Groundwater Quality into the Future” as part of this study. The purpose of the workshop was to gather input from both Environment Agency and external stakeholders regarding the key issues related to future groundwater quality, and the priorities for adaptation, management and research. This workshop identified uncertainty in impacts of climate change on groundwater quality, the need for holistic approaches to management of groundwater in the terrestrial water cycle, and the need for continued monitoring as cross cutting themes. A number of focus areas were also identified: nutrients, emerging substances, changing rainfall characteristics, changing temperature, groundwater rebound, urban development and construction, changing salinity and groundwater ecosystems. The potential impacts of climate change on groundwater quality are illustrated through five case studies – Brighton, Chichester, Birmingham, Eden and Dove. The case study areas cover a range of different hydrogeological (Chalk, Permo-Triassic sandstone and Carboniferous Limestone), geographical (north, south, inland, coastal) and land use settings (rural, urban). For each case study we discuss the hydrogeological conceptualisation and water quality issues of concern. We then present the results of UKCP18 (temperature, rainfall) and the derived products eFLaG (rainfall, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, groundwater levels) and GeoCoast (sea level rise), before providing a qualitative evaluation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater quality. Across all five case study areas, air temperatures are predicted to increase by up to 3°C. This could increase reaction rates for degradation of contaminants, but such increases may only be marginal. Increased sea levels are predicted to increase salinity in coastal aquifers. The direction of changes in long term average rainfall and recharge is uncertain, but the magnitude of changes is predicted to be small. There is generally a high confidence of increased rainfall and recharge seasonality and greater magnitude of extreme events in winter. This has the potential to result in spikes of pollutants, but this could also be offset by increased dilution. Land use change, and in the case of Birmingham, groundwater level recovery from historic over-abstraction, may have a greater impact on groundwater quality than changes in climate. On the basis of the literature review, case studies and input from stakeholders, an initial prioritisation of the potential risks to groundwater quality associated with climate change has been made. The relatively small increases in temperatures and changes in long term average rainfall and recharge make these a low priority. The local nature of increases in sea level affecting coastal aquifers make these a medium priority. The high confidence in changes in rainfall and recharge seasonality and extremes and impact through changes to leaching, spikes and dilution make these a relatively high priority. The highest priority risk is land use change, whether induced by climate change or otherwise. Land use change may change contaminant sources and pathways, and is both highly uncertain and has a potentially high impact on both groundwater and other components of the terrestrial water cycle. Building on the previous project tasks, a number of recommendations have been made regarding evidence gaps, monitoring approaches, regulation and adaptation measures. Specific recommendations are detailed in the table below and general recommendations are discussed herein. Further research is required to address the significant evidence gap related to how drivers of groundwater quality are likely to change in the future, and what the hydrogeological system response to changes in multiple, competing drivers may be. This is a large area of work and should be prioritised based on stakeholder needs. Subsequent work is required to consider the impacts of future changes in groundwater quality on downstream receptors, and what management strategies should be adopted. Recommendations for changes in groundwater quality monitoring detailed below are speculative at this stage given the high level of uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change on groundwater quality. A key recommendation from the workshop was for better integration of groundwater resources and quality in regulation, as well as better integration of groundwater as a whole within the terrestrial water cycle and urban planning. Given the uncertainty regarding the impacts of climate and land use change on groundwater quality, “no regrets” adaptation measures are most appropriate at this time. These measures, detailed below will address groundwater quality needs under current climate and land use and in any future. However, as “no regrets” measures address current groundwater quality issues, future issues which are not currently a concern (e.g. the next generation of emerging contaminants) will not be impacted by these approaches. This highlights the importance of addressing the evidence gaps above through targeted research projects. Detailed project proposals to address these gaps are beyond the scope of this report and should be co-produced between the Environment Agency, BGS and other stakeholders

The influence of groundwater abstraction on interpreting climate controls and extreme recharge events from well hydrographs in semi-arid South Africa

There is a scarcity of long-term groundwater hydrographs from sub-Saharan Africa to investigate groundwater sustainability, processes and controls. This paper presents an analysis of 21 hydrographs from semi-arid South Africa. Hydrographs from 1980 to 2000 were converted to standardised groundwater level indices and rationalised into four types (C1–C4) using hierarchical cluster analysis. Mean hydrographs for each type were cross-correlated with standardised precipitation and streamflow indices. Relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were also investigated. The four hydrograph types show a transition of autocorrelation over increasing timescales and increasingly subdued responses to rainfall. Type C1 strongly relates to rainfall, responding in most years, whereas C4 notably responds to only a single extreme event in 2000 and has limited relationship with rainfall. Types C2, C3 and C4 have stronger statistical relationships with standardised streamflow than standardised rainfall. C3 and C4 changes are significantly (p < 0.05) correlated to the mean wet season ENSO anomaly, indicating a tendency for substantial or minimal recharge to occur during extreme negative and positive ENSO years, respectively. The range of different hydrograph types, sometimes within only a few kilometres of each other, appears to be a result of abstraction interference and cannot be confidently attributed to variations in climate or hydrogeological setting. It is possible that high groundwater abstraction near C3/C4 sites masks frequent small-scale recharge events observed at C1/C2 sites, resulting in extreme events associated with negative ENSO years being more visible in the time series

Ambient interaction and situational influence: case studies in public sites.

An audience's direct physical intervention is widely believed to be instrumental in the field of interactive art. However, this long established expectation faces new challenges through the increasing accessibility of a growing diversity of interactive technologies and ubiquitous smart media. Such innovations are often fully integrated components of interactive public artworks, many of which do not directly involve audiences or individuals as key agents in the functional or aesthetic realisation of the work. Based on three case studies of interactive artworks in public places, this article identifies an important characteristic of interactivity in interactive art, through the largely unexplored concept of 'Ambient Interaction' in which artworks are embodied and enacted through environmental conditions and situational influences rather than exclusively through people's intentional and direct physical engagement

Possible futures for groundwater in Burkina Faso under a changing climate

This narrative describes three possible future scenarios for water resources in Burkina Faso and the human and socio-economic impacts that might be experienced by people living in rural areas. The narratives aim to stimulate discussion towards realistic policy responses and the decision support tools needed to assist future planning needs. It is important to recognise that the scenarios do not represent every possible outcome projected by hydroclimate models, and resulting impacts will be contextualised by local circumstances. See here for information about BRAVE (www.walker.ac.uk) and the UPGro programme: upgro.org/consortium/brave2/

In-situ observations and lumped parameter model reconstructions reveal intra-annual to multi-decadal variability in groundwater levels in sub-Saharan Africa

Understanding temporal variability in groundwater levels is essential for water resources management. In sub-Saharan Africa, groundwater level dynamics are poorly constrained due to limited long term observations. Here we present the first published analysis of temporal variability in groundwater levels at the national scale in sub-Saharan Africa, using 12 multi-decadal (c. 1980s – present) groundwater level hydrographs in Burkina Faso. For each hydrograph, we developed lumped parameter models which achieved acceptable calibrations (NSE = 0.5–0.99). For eight sites not showing significant (p<0.001) long term groundwater level declines, we reconstructed groundwater levels to 1902, over 50 years before the earliest observations in the tropics. We standardized and clustered the eight reconstructed hydrographs to compare responses across the sites. Overall, the 12 hydrographs were categorized into three groups, which are dominated by (1) long term declines (four sites), (2) short term intra-annual variability (three sites) and (3) long term multi-decadal variability (five sites). We postulate that group 1 is controlled by anthropogenic influences (land use change and abstraction). Correlation of modelled water table depth and groundwater response times with hydrograph autocorrelation suggests that hydrogeological properties and structure control differences between group 2 and 3. Group 3 shows a small recovery in groundwater levels following the 1970/80s drought. Differences in intra-annual to multi-decadal variability in groundwater levels have implications for water management, and highlight the value of long term monitoring. Reconstructions contextualize current groundwater status, forecasts and projections. The approach developed is generic and applicable where long term groundwater level data exist

Analytic traveling-wave solutions of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang interface growing equation with different kind of noise terms

The one-dimensional Kardar-Parisi-Zhang dynamic interface growth equation with the traveling-wave Ansatz is analyzed. As a new feature additional analytic terms are added. From the mathematical point of view, these can be considered as various noise distribution functions. Six different cases were investigated among others Gaussian, Lorentzian, white or even pink noise. Analytic solutions are evaluated and analyzed for all cases. All results are expressible with various special functions Mathieu, Bessel, Airy or Whittaker functions showing a very rich mathematical structure with some common general characteristics. This study is the continuation of our former work, where the same physical phenomena was investigated with the self-similar Ansatz. The differences and similarities among the various solutions are enlightened.Comment: 14 pages,14 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1904.0183

Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa

Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation, maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets. Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability—and their sensitivity to climatic variability—are poorly constrained. Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation–recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation–recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the ‘high certainty’ consensus regarding decreasing water resources in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation–recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies