Integrated Serologic Surveillance of Population Immunity and Disease Transmission.

Antibodies are unique among biomarkers in their ability to identify persons with protective immunity to vaccine-preventable diseases and to measure past exposure to diverse pathogens. Most infectious disease surveillance maintains a single-disease focus, but broader testing of existing serologic surveys with multiplex antibody assays would create new opportunities for integrated surveillance. In this perspective, we highlight multiple areas for potential synergy where integrated surveillance could add more value to public health efforts than the current trend of independent disease monitoring through vertical programs. We describe innovations in laboratory and data science that should accelerate integration and identify remaining challenges with respect to specimen collection, testing, and analysis. Throughout, we illustrate how information generated through integrated surveillance platforms can create new opportunities to more quickly and precisely identify global health program gaps that range from undervaccination to emerging pathogens to multilayered health disparities that span diverse communicable diseases

The risk of misclassifying subjects within principal component based asset index.

The asset index is often used as a measure of socioeconomic status in empirical research as an explanatory variable or to control confounding. Principal component analysis (PCA) is frequently used to create the asset index. We conducted a simulation study to explore how accurately the principal component based asset index reflects the study subjects' actual poverty level, when the actual poverty level is generated by a simple factor analytic model. In the simulation study using the PC-based asset index, only 1% to 4% of subjects preserved their real position in a quintile scale of assets; between 44% to 82% of subjects were misclassified into the wrong asset quintile. If the PC-based asset index explained less than 30% of the total variance in the component variables, then we consistently observed more than 50% misclassification across quintiles of the index. The frequency of misclassification suggests that the PC-based asset index may not provide a valid measure of poverty level and should be used cautiously as a measure of socioeconomic status

Incidence and public health burden of sunburn among beachgoers in the United States.

The beach environment creates many barriers to effective sun protection, putting beachgoers at risk for sunburn, a well-established risk factor for skin cancer. Our objective was to estimate incidence of sunburn among beachgoers and evaluate the relationship between sunburn incidence and sun-protective behaviors. A secondary analysis, of prospective cohorts at 12 locations within the U.S. from 2003 to 2009 (n = 75,614), were pooled to evaluate sunburn incidence 10-12 days after the beach visit. Behavioral and environmental conditions were cross-tabulated with sunburn incidence. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the association between new sunburn and sun-protective behaviors. Overall, 13.1% of beachgoers reported sunburn. Those aged 13-18 years (16.5%), whites (16.0%), and those at beach locations along the Eastern Seaboard (16.1%), had the highest incidence of sunburn. For those spending ≥5 h in the sun, the use of multiple types of sun protection reduced odds of sunburn by 55% relative to those who used no sun protection (Odds Ratio = 0.45 (95% Confidence Interval:0.27-0.77)) after adjusting for skin type, age, and race. Acute health effects of sunburn tend to be mild and self-limiting, but potential long-term health consequences are more serious and costly. Efforts to encourage and support proper sun-protective behaviors, and increase access to shade, protective clothing, and sunscreen, can help prevent sunburn and reduce skin cancer risk among beachgoers

Enteropathogen antibody dynamics and force of infection among children in low-resource settings.

Little is known about enteropathogen seroepidemiology among children in low-resource settings. We measured serological IgG responses to eight enteropathogens (Giardia intestinalis, Cryptosporidium parvum, Entamoeba histolytica, Salmonella enterica, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Vibrio cholerae, Campylobacter jejuni, norovirus) in cohorts from Haiti, Kenya, and Tanzania. We studied antibody dynamics and force of infection across pathogens and cohorts. Enteropathogens shared common seroepidemiologic features that enabled between-pathogen comparisons of transmission. Overall, exposure was intense: for most pathogens the window of primary infection was <3 years old; for highest transmission pathogens primary infection occurred within the first year. Longitudinal profiles demonstrated significant IgG boosting and waning above seropositivity cutoffs, underscoring the value of longitudinal designs to estimate force of infection. Seroprevalence and force of infection were rank-preserving across pathogens, illustrating the measures provide similar information about transmission heterogeneity. Our findings suggest antibody response can be used to measure population-level transmission of diverse enteropathogens in serologic surveillance

Stratigraphic Column of the Kope and Fairview Formations, Kentucky 445, Brent, Kentucky

The Upper Ordovician Kope Formation is exposed over a broad area of southwestern Ohio, southeastern Indiana, and northern Kentucky (Weir and others, 1984). Roadcuts along Ky. 445 near Brent (Figs. 2-3) and adjacent roadcuts along Interstate 275 expose a nearly complete section of the Kope Formation as well as the overlying Fairview Formation

Microbiological Contamination of Drinking Water Associated with Subsequent Child Diarrhea.

We used a prospective, longitudinal cohort enrolled as part of a program evaluation to assess the relationship between drinking water microbiological quality and child diarrhea. We included 50 villages across rural Bangladesh. Within each village field-workers enrolled a systematic random sample of 10 households with a child under the age of 3 years. Community monitors visited households monthly and recorded whether children under the age of 5 years had diarrhea in the preceding 2 days. Every 3 months, a research assistant visited the household and requested a water sample from the source or container used to provide drinking water to the child. Laboratory technicians measured the concentration of Escherichia coli in the water samples using membrane filtration. Of drinking water samples, 59% (2,273/3,833) were contaminated with E. coli. Of 12,192 monthly follow-up visits over 2 years, mothers reported that their child had diarrhea in the preceding 2 days in 1,156 (9.5%) visits. In a multivariable general linear model, the log10 of E. coli contamination of the preceding drinking water sample was associated with an increased prevalence of child diarrhea (prevalence ratio = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.23). These data provide further evidence of the health benefits of improved microbiological quality of drinking water

Degenerate dispersive equations arising in the study of magma dynamics

An outstanding problem in Earth science is understanding the method of transport of magma in the Earth's mantle. Models for this process, transport in a viscously deformable porous media, give rise to scalar degenerate, dispersive, nonlinear wave equations. We establish a general local well-posedness for a physical class of data (roughly $H^1$) via fixed point methods. The strategy requires positive lower bounds on the solution. This is extended to global existence for a subset of possible nonlinearities by making use of certain conservation laws associated with the equations. Furthermore, we construct a Lyapunov energy functional, which is locally convex about the uniform state, and prove (global in time) nonlinear dynamic stability of the uniform state for any choice of nonlinearity. We compare the dynamics to that of other problems and discuss open questions concerning a larger range of nonlinearities, for which we conjecture global existence.Comment: 27 Pages, 7 figures are not present in this version. See http://www.columbia.edu/~grs2103/ for a PDF with figures. Submitted to Nonlinearit