Shock Absorbing Prices, a Look at Cattle and Feed

This paper explores the time series properties of cattle and feed prices to determine the effect shocks may have on price evolution. Two different unit roots tests are applied to the data and compared and the issue of fractional integration is discussed. A Geweke Porter-Hudak test finds that at least of three of the four price series are fractionally integrated. VAR models are estimated using level data and fractionally differenced data and impulse responses compared across various degrees of fractional differencing.Demand and Price Analysis,

MEASUREMENT AND TESTING FOR NEUTRALITY OF FOREIGN PRICE AND CPI TRANSMISSION IN RUSSIA

This paper examines domestic and international food market integration in Russia before and after the financial crisis of 1998. Using monthly prices of bread, pork, and beef in 80 regions of Russia from 1994 to 1999, we measure the short-run response of regional prices to changes in foreign prices and domestic inflation. We find that both changes in foreign prices and domestic inflation have distinct impacts on the prices of these commodities in different Russian markets, indicating poor market integration in the short run. An analysis of the effect of the financial crisis shows that market integration for bread and beef deteriorated after the crisis. However, integration improved for pork in some parts of Russia, and the integration of Siberian pork markets with Chinese pork markets also improved after the crisis.International Relations/Trade,

Modeling the Cattle Replacement Decisions

In this paper we evaluate the performance of a dynamic model of cattle replacement and culling decisions. We derive the price of cattle when it is treated as a unit of capital and evaluate various rates of adjustment of the cattle herd to determine the length of the cattle cycle. Replacement decision is modeled as the solution to a dynamic optimization problem where the breeding herd is viewed as a capital asset that is capable of producing two outputs: calves and culled cows. The own-price, replacement and interest rate elasticities calculated for both the short-run and long-run time-frames suggest fairly rapid adjustment rates. Tests of cycle length revealed a 14-year cattle cycle.Livestock Production/Industries,

Globally Flexible Modeling of County-Level Acreage Response for Primary U.S. Field Crops

This study takes the standard acreage response model that stems from an expected utility framework, accounting for both price and yield variability, and nests it within a flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) model consistent with farm-level decision models for computationally tractable results. We use county-level data to estimate the response of farmers’ planting preferences to changes in revenue and other variables.acreage response, Elasticities, field crops, semi-nonparametric, risk, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

A METHOD FOR COMPARISON OF THE EFFICIENCY OF COUNTRIES WITH DISTINCT TECHNOLOGIES

We divide countries into two technology categories: developed and developing. Agricultural efficiency within each technology category was calculated. Cross-category efficiency measures were developed and combined with own-category measures to develop a technical difference index. Results indicate convergence of efficiency within both categories but divergence of efficiency between the two categories.Productivity Analysis,

A JOINT LIVESTOCK-CROP MULTI-FACTOR RELATIVE PRODUCTIVITY APPROACH

An output distance function conditional on the expansion of a second output is presented. These distance functions are used to calculate distinct relative Total Factor Productivity (TFP) scores for two jointly produced products-livestock and crops for 27 countries. From these, TFP growth and direction of growth are calculated.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

TESTING FOR AGGREGATION AND SIMULTANEOUS BIAS IN U.S. SOYBEAN EXPORT EQUATIONS

Most previous estimates of elasticities of export demand for U.S. soybeans have emanated from single import equations subject to aggregation and simultaneous equation bias. This analysis tests U.S. soybean export data for aggregation and simultaneous equation bias and divides the aggregated data into six market equations to reduce these biases. Elasticity estimates from the six equations are compared with elasticity estimates from single equation OLS and 2SLS estimations using the same aggregate data. Results suggest that distortions from unjustified 2SLS estimation may exceed those from aggregation bias.International Relations/Trade,

Market Response to a Food Safety Shock: The 2006 Foodborne Illness Outbreak of E. coli O157:H7 Linked to Spinach

In 2006 FDA announced that consumers should not eat fresh spinach in the wake of a large foodborne illness outbreak of E. coli O157:H7. This paper investigates response of consumers to the announcement. We use an AIDS demand model with 5 food safety shock variables and retail scanner data to analyze market response. Even fifteen months after the outbreak, predicted sales of spinach in bags were still down 10 percent from what they would have been in the absense of the food safety shock. After the outbreak, consumers shifted to other leafy greens such as bulk iceberg lettuce, other bulk lettuce, and bagged salads without spinach.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Acreage Decisions When Risk Preferences Vary

This presentation summarizes an AAEA poster.Risk preferences, acreage decision, soybeans, corn, wheat, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

A Guide to Spanish Florida Source Material

As the years pass the Spanish period of Florida still remains the longest of its history. Not until the year 2091 shall our American era have reached the same length as the Spanish rule. Yet historical research on Hispanic Florida is now all but stagnant compared to what is being done an thy American period. Serious research on the Spanish epochs is largely dependent on what is available from Spanish sources