Accuracy, Error, and Bias in Predictions for Real Versus Hypothetical Events

Participants made predictions about performance on tasks that they did or did not expect to complete. In three experiments, participants in task-unexpected conditions were unrealistically optimistic: They overestimated how well they would perform, often by a large margin, and their predictions were not correlated with their performance. By contrast, participants assigned to task-expected conditions made predictions that were not only less optimistic but strikingly accurate. Consistent with predictions from construal level theory, data from a fourth experiment suggest that it is the uncertainty associated with hypothetical tasks, and not a lack of cognitive processing, that frees people to make optimistic prediction errors. Unrealistic optimism, when it occurs, may be truly unrealistic; however, it may be less ubiquitous than has been previously suggested

Hope Over Experience Desirability and the Persistence of Optimism

Many important decisions hinge on expectations of future outcomes. Decisions about health, investments, and relationships all depend on predictions of the future. These expectations are often optimistic: People frequently believe that their preferred outcomes are more likely than is merited. Yet it is unclear whether optimism persists with experience and, surprisingly, whether optimism is truly caused by desire. These are important questions because life’s most consequential decisions often feature both strong preferences and the opportunity to learn. We investigated these questions by collecting football predictions from National Football League fans during each week of the 2008 season. Despite accuracy incentives and extensive feedback, predictions about preferred teams remained optimistically biased through the entire season. Optimism was as strong after 4 months as it was after 4 weeks. We exploited variation in preferences and matchups to show that desirability fueled this optimistic bias

Prescribed Optimism: Is it Right to be Wrong About the Future?

We test the assumption that people desire to be accurate when making predictions about their own future. Results revealed that, across four different scenarios and three manipulated variables (commitment to a decision, agency over the decision, and control over outcomes), participants thought it was better to make optimistically biased predictions than accurate or pessimistically biased predictions. Additionally, participants thought that they and others would be optimistic in the scenarios they read, but insufficiently so. We argue that prescriptions can serve as one standard by which the quality of predictions can be judged, and that this particular standard strongly endorses optimism

A Review of Clinical Informatics Competencies in Nursing to Inform Best Practices in Education and Nurse Faculty Development

AIM The aim of this literature review was to determine the state of the science related to clinical informatics competencies of registered nurses and to determine best practices in educational strategies for both nursing students and faculty. BACKGROUND Continued emphasis on the provision of evidence-based patient care has implications for requisite informatics-focused competencies to be threaded throughout all levels of nursing educational programs. METHOD Whittemore and Knalf’s five-step integrative review process guided this research. An extensive search yielded 69 publications for critical appraisal. RESULTS Results suggest nursing educational programs do not adhere to standardized criteria for teaching nursing informatics competencies. Another identified literature gap was the scarcity of research related to informatics training requirements for nurse educators. CONCLUSION Findings support the need for continued research to provide clear direction about the expected clinical informatics competencies of graduate nurses and what training faculty need to facilitate student learning

Quantum state preparation and macroscopic entanglement in gravitational-wave detectors

Long-baseline laser-interferometer gravitational-wave detectors are operating at a factor of 10 (in amplitude) above the standard quantum limit (SQL) within a broad frequency band. Such a low classical noise budget has already allowed the creation of a controlled 2.7 kg macroscopic oscillator with an effective eigenfrequency of 150 Hz and an occupation number of 200. This result, along with the prospect for further improvements, heralds the new possibility of experimentally probing macroscopic quantum mechanics (MQM) - quantum mechanical behavior of objects in the realm of everyday experience - using gravitational-wave detectors. In this paper, we provide the mathematical foundation for the first step of a MQM experiment: the preparation of a macroscopic test mass into a nearly minimum-Heisenberg-limited Gaussian quantum state, which is possible if the interferometer's classical noise beats the SQL in a broad frequency band. Our formalism, based on Wiener filtering, allows a straightforward conversion from the classical noise budget of a laser interferometer, in terms of noise spectra, into the strategy for quantum state preparation, and the quality of the prepared state. Using this formalism, we consider how Gaussian entanglement can be built among two macroscopic test masses, and the performance of the planned Advanced LIGO interferometers in quantum-state preparation

Fine Mapping of Genetic Variants in BIN1, CLU, CR1 and PICALM for Association with Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers for Alzheimer's Disease

Recent genome-wide association studies of Alzheimer's disease (AD) have identified variants in BIN1, CLU, CR1 and PICALM that show replicable association with risk for disease. We have thoroughly sampled common variation in these genes, genotyping 355 variants in over 600 individuals for whom measurements of two AD biomarkers, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) 42 amino acid amyloid beta fragments (Aβ42) and tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (ptau181), have been obtained. Association analyses were performed to determine whether variants in BIN1, CLU, CR1 or PICALM are associated with changes in the CSF levels of these biomarkers. Despite adequate power to detect effects as small as a 1.05 fold difference, we have failed to detect evidence for association between SNPs in these genes and CSF Aβ42 or ptau181 levels in our sample. Our results suggest that these variants do not affect risk via a mechanism that results in a strong additive effect on CSF levels of Aβ42 or ptau181

PSY 344 Psychology and Culture

This course will explore how culture influences fundamental aspects of human psychology. We\ud will address basic questions about the nature of culture???and more far-reaching questions about\ud the profoundly cultural nature of human behavior???by drawing from the most up-to-date and\ud scientifically sound research in cultural psychology.\ud You will learn what cross-cultural research has said about what we traditionally know to be truth\ud in psychology in a wide variety of topic areas. You also will learn about the meaning of crosscultural\ud psychology in the larger picture of psychology as a discipline. And, as a major goal of\ud this course, you will gain a better at understanding of intercultural differences and similarities\ud that will become more and more relevant to your personal and professional lives in our\ud increasingly multicultural world