133 research outputs found

    Is infinity that far? A Bayesian nonparametric perspective of finite mixture models

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    Mixture models are one of the most widely used statistical tools when dealing with data from heterogeneous populations. Following a Bayesian nonparametric perspective, we introduce a new class of priors: the Normalized Independent Point Process. We investigate the probabilistic properties of this new class and present many special cases. In particular, we provide an explicit formula for the distribution of the implied partition, as well as the posterior characterization of the new process in terms of the superposition of two discrete measures. We also provide consistency results. Moreover, we design both a marginal and a conditional algorithm for finite mixture models with a random number of components. These schemes are based on an auxiliary variable MCMC, which allows handling the otherwise intractable posterior distribution and overcomes the challenges associated with the Reversible Jump algorithm. We illustrate the performance and the potential of our model in a simulation study and on real data applications

    Bayesian isotonic logistic regression via constrained splines: an application to estimating the serve advantage in professional tennis

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    In professional tennis, it is often acknowledged that the server has an initial advantage. Indeed, the majority of points are won by the server, making the serve one of the most important elements in this sport. In this paper, we focus on the role of the serve advantage in winning a point as a function of the rally length. We propose a Bayesian isotonic logistic regression model for the probability of winning a point on serve. In particular, we decompose the logit of the probability of winning via a linear combination of B-splines basis functions, with athlete-specific basis function coefficients. Further, we ensure the serve advantage decreases with rally length by imposing constraints on the spline coefficients. We also consider the rally ability of each player, and study how the different types of court may impact on the player’s rally ability. We apply our methodology to a Grand Slam singles matches dataset

    Evolution of signalling systems with multiple senders and receivers

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    Sender–receiver games are simple, tractable models of information transmission. They provide a basic setting for the study the evolution of meaning. It is possible to investigate not only the equilibrium structure of these games but also the dynamics of evolution and learning—with sometimes surprising results. Generalizations of the usual binary game to interactions with multiple senders, multiple receivers or both provide the elements of signalling networks. These can be seen as the loci of information processing, group decisions, and teamwork

    Riociguat treatment in patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension: Final safety data from the EXPERT registry

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    Objective: The soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator riociguat is approved for the treatment of adult patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and inoperable or persistent/recurrent chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) following Phase
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