Using digital repeat photography to strengthen seasonal monitoring in Ethiopia’s R4 Rural Resilience Initiative

This paper discusses the feasibility of applying a near-surface remote sensing approach in the index insurance component of the R4 Rural Resilience Initiative in Ethiopia. Specifically, we test a prototype for using smartphone images of insured fields (or ‘picture-based insurance’) to monitor crops and manage basis risk in R4 insurance policies. We find that the proposed prototype, in which R4 agents send in images of crops grown by farmers in their communities, is feasible. Further, we find that crop losses are not only caused by droughts, which are covered by R4 index insurance products, but also by other perils such as pests or disease, which are not easily captured by index insurance. Despite limited smartphone penetration and current challenges in internet coverage, the near-surface remote sensing approach appears valuable and feasible in the context of the R4 Rural Resilience Initiative in Ethiopia

TH2.3: Smallholder Farmers Willingness to Pay for Crop Insurance Among Women and Men in Kenya

Because of increased incidences of drought due to climate change, it is vital that both men and women farmers can manage production risks. Agricultural insurance has been widely promoted to cushion farmers against adverse weather events, yet its uptake remains low, even more so among women. We therefore elicited incentivized measures of willingness to pay (WTP) for various agricultural insurance bundles offered to smallholder farmers within 7 counties in Kenya and analyze how WTP for the various bundles differs between women and men, and how it correlates with the Project-level Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index (Pro-WEAI). We find that WTP is highest when the insurance product makes payouts in respondents' personal mobile money account, with significantly lower WTP when paid into their spouse's account, or into their savings group (ROSCA)'s account. This is consistent with the finding that control over use of income and autonomy in decision making are two of the main contributors to both men's and women's disempowerment. In conclusion, one of the ways to ensure that agricultural insurance supports women's empowerment is to ensure that insurance contracts purchased by women are registered under their names and payouts are subsequently paid to their accounts, so that they gain control over the use of income from insurance payouts

Crop commercialization in Ethiopia: Trends, drivers, and impact on well-being

Agricultural transformation refers to a series of changes in agriculture that both reflect and drive rising income and economic development more broadly. While the macroeconomic patterns of agricultural transformation are relatively well documented, less is known about how it is manifested at the household level. Ethiopia makes an excellent case study as it has had one of the fastest growing economies in the world. An important aspect of this process is agricultural commercialization, that is, the rising share of agricultural output is sold on the market rather than being consumed at home. Agricultural commercialization tends to rise with development with improved infrastructure and communications, the availability of inputs and know-how regarding commercial crop production, and farmers being willing to accept the risks associated with producing crops for the market. Agricultural commercialization is widely believed to allow farmers to earn higher income as they specialize in crops for which they have a comparative advantage. The analysis makes use of a data from three rural household surveys carried out in Ethiopia by IFPRI in 2012, 2016, and 2019. Each survey used a sample that was representative of the four main agricultural regions of the country (Tigre, Oromia, Amhara, and SNNP) with sample sizes of 3000 to 5000, including 1,900 households that were interviewed in all three rounds. In addition, we incorporate several weather variables based on CHIRPS rainfall data to estimate the effect of the level and variability of rainfall on agricultural commercialization

Climate-smart crop insurance to promote adoption of stress-tolerant seeds : midterm findings from a cluster randomized trial

Too often, smallholder farmers suffer severe financial consequences from extreme weather events, pests, and disease; and climate change will increase the frequency at which natural hazards occur. This project note describes the findings from a research program in Kenya that aims to design, implement, and evaluate more complete risk management solutions; in particular, a solution that promotes stress-tolerant crops and varieties using an innovative picture-based crop insurance (PBI) product. The note first describes this intervention and the study designed to measure its impacts, followed by an overview of key findings at midline. This will include insights on the scalability of picture-based claims settlement, opportunities for more gender-responsive program design, and demand for the insurance product. We conclude by describing key challenges faced whilst implementing these solutions and providing an outlook for the future.Dutch Research Council (NWO-WOTRO)Cultivate Africa’s Future Phase IICGIAR research programs for Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM

Russia-Ukraine war and the global crisis: Impacts on poverty and food security in developing countries

Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans in response to concerns about commodity shortages, have also contributed to rising prices. Figure 1 examines price changes in key food and nonfood commodities between June 2021 and June 2022. The period of interest for this study is June 2021 to April 2022. Over this period, palm oil and wheat prices increased by 68 and 113 percent in nominal terms, respectively. When deflated by the US Consumer Price Index, these price changes equate to 56 and 100 percent in real terms. Wide variation exists across food products, with nominal maize prices increasing by 19 per-cent (or 11 percent in real terms), and rice prices declining by 13 percent (or 7 percent in real terms) over the same period. Prices of nonfood commodities also rose substantially. Whereas crude oil prices rose 44 percent (or 34 percent in real terms), natural gas and fertilizer prices both doubled (or 88 and 101 percent in real terms, respectively). As shown in the breakdown in the bar chart, most of the price growth occurred after the start of the war in Ukraine, except for fertilizer

Promoting seed systems for stress-tolerant varieties at scale: Potential for bundling with insurance-advisory services

Smallholder farmers may suffer losses from ex-treme weather events, pests and disease. This is expected to worsen in the face of climate change. Natural disasters are a threat to food security not only ex post, by inducing farmers to sell their as-sets, keep children out of school or borrow at high rates; they also threaten livelihoods ex ante, by discouraging farmers from investing in high-return practices and technologies (Elbers et al., 2007). Fortunately, significant progress has been made in the past two decades in developing and releasing seeds with genetic traits that are more tolerant to weather shocks, pests and disease. These im-provements in seed technology are offering prom-ising pathways to improve farmers’ adaptive ca-pacity, increasing investments and thereby agri-cultural productivity (Emerick et al., 2016).Non-PRIFPRI1; CRP2; PBIMTID; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

Using digital repeat photography to strengthen seasonal monitoring in Ethiopia’s R4 Rural Resilience Initiative

This paper discusses the feasibility of applying a near-surface remote sensing approach in the index insurance component of the R4 Rural Resilience Initiative in Ethiopia. Specifically, we test a prototype for using smartphone images of insured fields (or ‘picture-based insurance’) to monitor crops and manage basis risk in R4 insurance policies. We find that the proposed prototype, in which R4 agents send in images of crops grown by farmers in their communities, is feasible. Further, we find that crop losses are not only caused by droughts, which are covered by R4 index insurance products, but also by other perils such as pests or disease, which are not easily captured by index insurance. Despite limited smartphone penetration and current challenges in internet coverage, the near-surface remote sensing approach appears valuable and feasible in the context of the R4 Rural Resilience Initiative in Ethiopia.Non-PRIFPRI5; CRP2; CRP7; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; PBIMTID; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS); CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture (Big Data

Climate-smart crop insurance to promote adoption of stress-tolerant seeds: Midterm findings from a cluster randomized trial

Too often, smallholder farmers suffer severe financial consequences from extreme weather events, pests, and disease; and climate change will increase the frequency at which natural hazards occur. This poses a threat to livelihoods not only ex post, by reducing agricultural output and inducing farmers to sell their assets, keep children out of school or borrow at high rates; but also ex ante, by discouraging farmers from investing in high-return practices and technologies (Elbers et al., 2007). Innovative solutions are needed to help marginalized farmers prepare for these natural hazards. One solution, building upon decades of agricultural research for development, can be found in the breeding of crop varieties that are more tolerant to weather shocks, pests and disease. The resulting improvements in seed technology offer promising pathways to improve farmers’ adaptive capacity, crowd in investments in agriculture, and thereby enhance agricultural productivity (Emerick et al., 2016). At the same time, stress tolerance is not a bullet-proof solution against all hazards. Farming is risky by nature, and improved stress-tolerant varieties will not shield farmers from more severe hazards, or from risks for which stress tolerance was not an explicit breeding objective. Drought-tolerant varieties are, for instance, not necessarily disease tolerant as well. Improving resilience in the face of climate change will require a more complete solution, in which farmers invest in stress-tolerant varieties to reduce their exposure to moderate, manageable risks, whilst accessing other types of solutions, including financial services, to protect their livelihoods from more severe and catastrophic production risks. This project note describes the findings from a research program in Kenya that aims to design, implement, and evaluate more complete risk management solutions; in particular, a solution that promotes stress-tolerant crops and varieties using an innovative picture-based crop insurance (PBI) product. The note first describes this intervention and the study designed to measure its impacts, followed by an overview of key findings at midline. This will include insights on the scalability of picture-based claims settlement, opportunities for more gender-responsive program design, and demand for the insurance product. We conclude by describing key challenges faced whilst implementing these solutions and providing an outlook for the future.Non-PRIFPRI1; CRP2; PBI; DCA; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; G Cross-cutting gender themeMTID; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

Gender and seed entrepreneurism: Case studies in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania

Our paper seeks to identify factors that inhibit and promote women’s success in seed businesses, through three case studies of women’s and men’s entrepreneurship across varying seed-related value chains and country contexts in Africa south of the Sahara. The cases include chicken seed dissemination in Ethiopia and Tanzania, tilapia seed production in Ghana, and marketing and trading of improved maize and sorghum seeds in Kenya. Applying a gender lens, we use qualitative methods to analyze women’s and men’s motivations to engage in seed businesses, the challenges they confront to start and succeed, and prospects for sustainability and continued success. We also use quantitative data to characterize the levels of empowerment of the entrepreneurs sampled. Results show that time flexibility and profitability of the business can be important considerations for women’s engagement in seed entrepreneurship, and the social normative context of the sector is also critical. Furthermore, outside support can be a key factor influencing women’s seed entrepreneurship, per the Kenya case