Winners and losers in Soccer World Cup: a study of recent history and how to bet if you must

17 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables.-- JEL classification codes: L83, C15.-- Contributed to: 4th International Conference on Sports, Tourism and Culture (Athens, Greece, May 31-Jun 2, 2004).Football betting in Europe has seen a rapid growth in the last two decades. However, the betting market seems to be rather inert in becoming an efficient market in a similar fashion as inefficiencies have been appearing in the international financial markets. A typical fixed odds set provided by the bookmaker for the result of a soccer match would be: (odds for home team win, odds for draw, odds for away team win). The present work differentiates itself from the others in the relevant literature in the mere fact that the only outcome of probabilistic interest is chosen to be the draw, that is, the most difficult to predict-see Pope and Peel (1989). The FIFA World Cup is considered to be the most important soccer tournament between national teams from all over the world and is taking place every four years. The data used in the present study come from a 20-year span of World Cup Final Tournaments. Typically the odds include the bookmaker’s in-built “take” margin, usually in the range of 11-15%. In order for the gambler to make money out of betting he has to be able to determine the true probabilities of a soccer game better than the bookmaker in order to overcome the bookmakers’ profit margin. The estimate for the probability of a draw in a World Cup Final Tournament is found to be 29,76%, which is in agreement with similar results; see for example Dixon and Coles (1997). A simple mathematical sequence, known as the Fibbonacci sequence, is used in order to define a consistent betting strategy. It will be shown that for fixed odds given for a draw equal to the value 2.618, the betting rule proposed is giving always at least a unit of profit. Nevertheless, the average for a fixed odds is greater than 3.0, thus we consider the odds also as a random variable and the model is implemented by a Monte Carlo simulation.Peer reviewe

) Testing the Order of Integration in a VAR Model for I(2) Variables ∗

We propose a test for the order of integration of the univariate components of a vector process integrated of order two, i.e. an I(2) process, generated by a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The null hypothesis of the test is that the particular univariate time series is an I(1) process. The hypotheses are formulated as linear restrictions on the directions orthogonal to the I(1) cointegration space. The statistic considered is the Wald test, which asymptotically follows a chi-squared distribution, such that standard inference can be applied. The theoretical results are illustrated by a Monte Carlo experiment. This work is part of my Ph.D. thesis under the patient guidance of Søren Johansen. Thanks are also due to N. Haldrup, D. O’Brien and A. Soro Bonmati and seminar participants of the European University Institute, the Universidad de Alicante

An alternative proof of Granger’s Representation Theorem forI(1) systems through Jordan matrices

VAR Systems, Integrated Series, Granger’s Representation, Jordan matrices,

Essays on nonstationary time series

Defence date: 28 June 2002Examining board: Prof. Anindya Banerjee, EUI ; Prof. Niels Haldrup, University of Aarhus ; Prof. Søren Johansen, ext. EUI and Univ. of Copenhagen, Supervisor ; Prof. Paolo Paruolo, Università dell'InsubriaPDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017-- An alternative proof of Granger's representation theorem for I(1) systems through Jordan matrices -- Testing the order of integration in a VAR model for I(2) variables -- Bartlett-type corrections for testing cointegration in the I(1) model : a Monte Carlo simulation stud

Søren Johansen and Katarina Juselius: A Bibliometric Analysis of Citations through Multivariate Bass Models

We showcase the impact of Katarina Juselius and Søren Johansen’s contribution to econometrics using bibliometric data on citations from 1989 to 2017, extracted from the Web of Science (WoS) database. Our purpose is to analyze the impact of KJ and SJ’s ideas on applied and methodological research in econometrics. To this aim, starting from WoS data, we derived two composite indices whose purpose is to disentangle the authors’ impact on applied research from their impact on methodological research. As of 2017, the number of applied citing papers per quarter had not yet reached the peak; conversely, the peak in the methodological literature seem to have been reached around 2000, although the shape of the trajectory is very flat after the peak. We analyzed the data using a multivariate dynamic version of the well known Bass model. Our estimates suggest that the methodological literature is mainly driven by “innovators”, whereas “imitators” are relatively more important in the applied literature: this might explain the different location of the peaks. We also find that, in the literature referring to KJ and SJ, the “cross-fertilization” between methodological and applied research is statistically significant and bi-directional

Jordan matrices on the equivalence of the I(1) conditions for VAR systems

Digitised version produced by the EUI Library and made available online in 2020

What do university patent routes indicate at regional level?

16 pages, 4 tablesWe estimate the determinants of university patents by route in Spain. National patents are an indicator of R&D efforts when we focus on the region, but not of how regions organize their university or joint research structure. International patents are a stronger indicator of R&D efforts, so they express confidence in the potential of the patent. Neither set is an indicator of proximity to the region’s competencies in technologies other than for production-intensive sectors, so they will not always foster regional technology transfer. Since the driving forces of national and international patents differ, the use of both is recommended.Peer reviewe