Covid-19 Dynamic Monitoring and Real-Time Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Background: Periodically, humanity is often faced with new and emerging viruses that can be a significant global threat. It has already been over a century post—the Spanish Flu pandemic, and we are witnessing a new type of coronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2, which is responsible for Covid-19. It emerged from the city of Wuhan (China) in December 2019, and within a few months, the virus propagated itself globally now resulting more than 50 million cases with over 1 million deaths. The high infection rates coupled with dynamic population movement demands for tools, especially within a Brazilian context, that will support health managers to develop policies for controlling and combating the new virus. / Methods: In this work, we propose a tool for real-time spatio-temporal analysis using a machine learning approach. The COVID-SGIS system brings together routinely collected health data on Covid-19 distributed across public health systems in Brazil, as well as taking to under consideration the geographic and time-dependent features of Covid-19 so as to make spatio-temporal predictions. The data are sub-divided by federative unit and municipality. In our case study, we made spatio-temporal predictions of the distribution of cases and deaths in Brazil and in each federative unit. Four regression methods were investigated: linear regression, support vector machines (polynomial kernels and RBF), multilayer perceptrons, and random forests. We use the percentage RMSE and the correlation coefficient as quality metrics. / Results: For qualitative evaluation, we made spatio-temporal predictions for the period from 25 to 27 May 2020. Considering qualitatively and quantitatively the case of the State of Pernambuco and Brazil as a whole, linear regression presented the best prediction results (thematic maps with good data distribution, correlation coefficient >0.99 and RMSE (%) <4% for Pernambuco and around 5% for Brazil) with low training time: [0.00; 0.04 ms], CI 95%. / Conclusion: Spatio-temporal analysis provided a broader assessment of those in the regions where the accumulated confirmed cases of Covid-19 were concentrated. It was possible to differentiate in the thematic maps the regions with the highest concentration of cases from the regions with low concentration and regions in the transition range. This approach is fundamental to support health managers and epidemiologists to elaborate policies and plans to control the Covid-19 pandemics

COVID-SGIS: A Smart Tool for Dynamic Monitoring and Temporal Forecasting of Covid-19

Background: The global burden of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is increasing at an unprecedented rate. The current spread of Covid-19 in Brazil is problematic causing a huge public health burden to its population and national health-care service. To evaluate strategies for alleviating such problems, it is necessary to forecast the number of cases and deaths in order to aid the stakeholders in the process of making decisions against the disease. We propose a novel system for real-time forecast of the cumulative cases of Covid-19 in Brazil. / Methods: We developed the novel COVID-SGIS application for the real-time surveillance, forecast and spatial visualization of Covid-19 for Brazil. This system captures routinely reported Covid-19 information from 27 federative units from the Brazil.io database. It utilizes all Covid-19 confirmed case data that have been notified through the National Notification System, from March to May 2020. Time series ARIMA models were integrated for the forecast of cumulative number of Covid-19 cases and deaths. These include 6-days forecasts as graphical outputs for each federative unit in Brazil, separately, with its corresponding 95% CI for statistical significance. In addition, a worst and best scenarios are presented. / Results: The following federative units (out of 27) were flagged by our ARIMA models showing statistically significant increasing temporal patterns of Covid-19 cases during the specified day-to-day period: Bahia, Maranhão, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Amapá, Rondônia, where their day-to-day forecasts were within the 95% CI limits. Equally, the same findings were observed for Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, and Santa Catarina. The overall percentage error between the forecasted values and the actual values varied between 2.56 and 6.50%. For the days when the forecasts fell outside the forecast interval, the percentage errors in relation to the worst case scenario were below 5%. / Conclusion: The proposed method for dynamic forecasting may be used to guide social policies and plan direct interventions in a cost-effective, concise, and robust manner. This novel tools can play an important role for guiding the course of action against the Covid-19 pandemic for Brazil and country neighbors in South America

Sugarcane (Saccharum X officinarum): A Reference Study for the Regulation of Genetically Modified Cultivars in Brazil

Global interest in sugarcane has increased significantly in recent years due to its economic impact on sustainable energy production. Sugarcane breeding and better agronomic practices have contributed to a huge increase in sugarcane yield in the last 30 years. Additional increases in sugarcane yield are expected to result from the use of biotechnology tools in the near future. Genetically modified (GM) sugarcane that incorporates genes to increase resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses could play a major role in achieving this goal. However, to bring GM sugarcane to the market, it is necessary to follow a regulatory process that will evaluate the environmental and health impacts of this crop. The regulatory review process is usually accomplished through a comparison of the biology and composition of the GM cultivar and a non-GM counterpart. This review intends to provide information on non-GM sugarcane biology, genetics, breeding, agronomic management, processing, products and byproducts, as well as the current technologies used to develop GM sugarcane, with the aim of assisting regulators in the decision-making process regarding the commercial release of GM sugarcane cultivars

Polymorphous adenocarcinoma of the salivary glands : reappraisal and update

Although relatively rare, polymorphous adenocarcinoma (PAC) is likely the second most common malignancy of the minor salivary glands (MiSG). The diagnosis is mainly based on an incisional biopsy. The optimal treatment comprises wide surgical excision, often with adjuvant radiotherapy. In general, PAC has a good prognosis. Previously, PAC was referred to as polymorphous low-grade adenocarcinoma (PLGA), but the new WHO classification of salivary gland tumours has also included under the PAC subheading, the so-called cribriform adenocarcinoma of minor salivary glands (CAMSG). This approach raised controversy, predominantly because of possible differences in clinical behaviour. For example, PLGA (PAC, classical variant) only rarely metastasizes, whereas CAMSG often shows metastases to the neck lymph nodes. Given the controversy, this review reappraises the definition, epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnostic work-up, genetics, treatment modalities, and prognosis of PAC of the salivary glands with a particular focus on contrasting differences with CAMSG.Peer reviewe