Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model for missed HIV health care provider visits in a large US clinical cohort

Background: Identifying individuals at high risk of missing HIV care provider visits could support proactive intervention. Previous prediction models for missed visits have not incorporated data beyond the individual level. Methods: We developed prediction models for missed visits among people with HIV (PWH) with ≥1 follow-up visit in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems from 2010 to 2016. Individual-level (medical record data and patient-reported outcomes), community-level (American Community Survey), HIV care site-level (standardized clinic leadership survey), and structural-level (HIV criminalization laws, Medicaid expansion, and state AIDS Drug Assistance Program budget) predictors were included. Models were developed using random forests with 10-fold cross-validation; candidate models with the highest area under the curve (AUC) were identified. Results: Data from 382 432 visits among 20 807 PWH followed for a median of 3.8 years were included; the median age was 44 years, 81% were male, 37% were Black, 15% reported injection drug use, and 57% reported male-to-male sexual contact. The highest AUC was 0.76, and the strongest predictors were at the individual level (prior visit adherence, age, CD4+ count) and community level (proportion living in poverty, unemployed, and of Black race). A simplified model, including readily accessible variables available in a web-based calculator, had a slightly lower AUC of .700. Conclusions: Prediction models validated using multilevel data had a similar AUC to previous models developed using only individual-level data. The strongest predictors were individual-level variables, particularly prior visit adherence, though community-level variables were also predictive. Absent additional data, PWH with previous missed visits should be prioritized by interventions to improve visit adherence

Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model for missed HIV health care provider visits in a large US clinical cohort

Background: Identifying individuals at high risk of missing HIV care provider visits could support proactive intervention. Previous prediction models for missed visits have not incorporated data beyond the individual level. Methods: We developed prediction models for missed visits among people with HIV (PWH) with ≥1 follow-up visit in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems from 2010 to 2016. Individual-level (medical record data and patient-reported outcomes), community-level (American Community Survey), HIV care site-level (standardized clinic leadership survey), and structural-level (HIV criminalization laws, Medicaid expansion, and state AIDS Drug Assistance Program budget) predictors were included. Models were developed using random forests with 10-fold cross-validation; candidate models with the highest area under the curve (AUC) were identified. Results: Data from 382 432 visits among 20 807 PWH followed for a median of 3.8 years were included; the median age was 44 years, 81% were male, 37% were Black, 15% reported injection drug use, and 57% reported male-to-male sexual contact. The highest AUC was 0.76, and the strongest predictors were at the individual level (prior visit adherence, age, CD4+ count) and community level (proportion living in poverty, unemployed, and of Black race). A simplified model, including readily accessible variables available in a web-based calculator, had a slightly lower AUC of .700. Conclusions: Prediction models validated using multilevel data had a similar AUC to previous models developed using only individual-level data. The strongest predictors were individual-level variables, particularly prior visit adherence, though community-level variables were also predictive. Absent additional data, PWH with previous missed visits should be prioritized by interventions to improve visit adherence

Diagnosis and clinical outcomes of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in antiretroviral therapy programmes in low- and middle-income countries: a multicohort study.

INTRODUCTION Extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) is difficult to confirm bacteriologically and requires specific diagnostic capacities. Diagnosis can be especially challenging in under-resourced settings. We studied diagnostic modalities and clinical outcomes of EPTB compared to pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) among HIV-positive adults in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). METHODS We collected data from HIV-positive TB patients (≥16 years) in 22 ART programmes participating in the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Caribbean, Central and South America regions between 2012 and 2014. We categorized TB as PTB or EPTB (EPTB included mixed PTB/EPTB). We used multivariable logistic regression to assess associations with clinical outcomes. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION We analysed 2695 HIV-positive TB patients. Median age was 36 years (interquartile range (IQR) 30 to 43), 1102 were female (41%), and the median CD4 count at TB treatment start was 114 cells/μL (IQR 40 to 248). Overall, 1930 had PTB (72%), and 765 EPTB (28%). Among EPTB patients, the most frequently involved sites were the lymph nodes (24%), pleura (15%), abdomen (11%) and meninges (6%). The majority of PTB (1123 of 1930, 58%) and EPTB (582 of 765, 76%) patients were diagnosed based on clinical criteria. Bacteriological confirmation (using positive smear microscopy, culture, Xpert MTB/RIF, or other nucleic acid amplification tests result) was obtained in 897 of 1557 PTB (52%) and 183 of 438 EPTB (42%) patients. EPTB was not associated with higher mortality compared to PTB (adjusted odd ratio (aOR) 1.0, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.3), but TB meningitis was (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0 to 3.1). Bacteriological confirmation was associated with reduced mortality among PTB patients (aOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6 to 0.8) and EPTB patients (aOR 0.3 95% CI 0.1 to 0.8) compared to TB patients with a negative test result. CONCLUSIONS Diagnosis of EPTB and PTB at ART programmes in LMIC was mainly based on clinical criteria. Greater availability and usage of TB diagnostic tests would improve the diagnosis and clinical outcomes of both EPTB and PTB

Low implementation of Xpert MTB/RIF among HIV/TB co-infected adults in the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) program.

OBJECTIVE:Xpert MTB/RIF is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the initial tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic test in individuals suspected of HIV-associated TB. We sought to evaluate field implementation of Xpert among a cohort of HIV/TB co-infected individuals, including availability, utilization and outcomes. DESIGN:Observational cohort study (patient-level data) and cross-sectional study (site-level Xpert availability data). METHODS:Data were collected at 30 participating International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) sites in 18 countries from January 2012-January 2016. All patients were HIV-infected and diagnosed with TB, either bacteriologically or clinically, and followed until a determination of TB treatment outcome. We used multivariable modified Poisson regression to estimate adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals for unfavorable TB treatment outcomes. RESULTS:Most sites (63%) had access to Xpert, either in the clinic (13%), in the same facility (20%) or offsite (30%). Among 2722 HIV/TB patients included, median age was 35.4 years and 41% were female; BMI and CD4 count were low. Overall, most patients (76%) received at least one TB test; 45% were positive. Only 4% of all patients were tested using Xpert: 64% were Xpert-positive, 13% showed rifampicin (RIF) resistance and 30% were extrapulmonary (EPTB) or both pulmonary-EPTB. Treatment outcomes were mostly favorable (77%) and we found little association between Xpert use and an unfavorable TB treatment outcome (RR 1.25, 95%CI: 0.83, 1.90). CONCLUSIONS:In this cohort, Xpert utilization was low even though the majority of sites had access to the test. Our findings show the need for expanded implementation and further research exploring barriers to use in low-resource settings

Optimal Testing Choice and Diagnostic Strategies for Latent Tuberculosis Infection Among US-Born People Living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV).

BackgroundIncreased risk of progression from latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) to tuberculosis (TB) disease among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) prioritizes them for LTBI testing and treatment. Studies comparing the performance of interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) and the tuberculin skin test (TST) among PLWH are lacking.MethodsWe used Bayesian latent class analysis to estimate the prevalence of LTBI and diagnostic characteristics of the TST, QuantiFERON Gold In-Tube (QFT), and T.SPOT-TB (TSPOT) among a prospective, multicenter cohort of US-born PLWH ≥5 years old with valid results for all 3 LTBI tests using standard US cutoffs (≥5 mm TST, ≥0.35 IU/mL QFT, ≥8 spots TSPOT). We also explored the performance of varying LTBI test cutoffs.ResultsAmong 1510 PLWH (median CD4+ count 532 cells/mm3), estimated LTBI prevalence was 4.7%. TSPOT was significantly more specific (99.7%) and had a significantly higher positive predictive value (90.0%, PPV) than QFT (96.5% specificity, 50.7% PPV) and TST (96.8% specificity, 45.4% PPV). QFT was significantly more sensitive (72.2%) than TST (54.2%) and TSPOT (51.9%); negative predictive value of all tests was high (TST 97.7%, QFT 98.6%, TSPOT 97.6%). Even at the highest cutoffs evaluated (15 mm TST, ≥1.00 IU/mL QFT, ≥8 spots TSPOT), TST and QFT specificity was significantly lower than TSPOT.ConclusionsLTBI prevalence among this cohort of US-born PLWH was low compared to non-US born persons. TSPOT's higher PPV may make it preferable for testing US-born PLWH at low risk for TB exposure and with high CD4+ counts