Root Cause Classification of Breakup Events 1961-2018

This paper uses the updated NASA History of On-Orbit Satellite Fragmentations 15th Edition, to examine and categorize the root cause of historical breakup events to the greatest degree possible. Classes of debris progenitors have evolved, as many classes of Cold War-era spacecraft are now extinct, only to be replaced by new classes of payloads and rocket bodies statistically likely to experience debris-producing events. The efficacy of international debris mitigation implementation and root cause/fault tree analyses and lessons learned is examined in relation to the breakup of satellite classes or specific events. In select cases, the remaining on-orbit inventory of specific classes is identified in the context of possible future events. The environmental impact of these specific classes is examined and compared to nominal space environment projections. When appropriate, recommendations for debris remediation are made for specific satellite classes

An 82 Inclination Debris Cloud Revealed by Radar

The statistical debris measurement campaigns conducted by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar on behalf of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office are used to characterize the long-term behavior of the small, low Earth orbit (LEO) orbital debris environment. Recent analyses have revealed the presence of a persistent LEO small debris cloud, which has no accompanying large component, cataloged by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. This cloud, at an inclination of approximately 82 and below 1200 km in altitude does, however, correspond to the heavily trafficked region of space that has suffered several known, accidental collisions, e.g., Cosmos 1934 and Cosmos 2251. In this paper, we describe the observed cloud and model it using the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model. Key features of the cloud model, including source attribution and debris mass constraints, are presented to enable further observations and characterization

The Updated GEO Population for ORDEM 3.1

The limited availability of data for satellite fragmentations and debris in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) region creates challenges to building accurate models for the orbital debris environment at such altitudes. Updated methods to properly incorporate and extrapolate measurement data have become a cornerstone of the GEO component in the newest version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), ORDEM 3.1. For the GEO region, the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog provides coverage down to a limit of approximately 1 m. A more statistically complete representation of the GEO population for smaller objects, which can pose a high risk to operational spacecraft, is thus dependent on dedicated observations by instruments optimized to observe debris smaller than the SSN cataloging threshold. For ORDEM 3.1, optical data from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST) provided the input for building the GEO population down to approximately 30 cm (converting absolute magnitude to size). For smaller sizes, the size distribution of debris in the MODEST dataset was extrapolated down to 10 cm, and orbital parameters were estimated based on the orbits of the larger objects. When compared to previous versions of the model, significant improvements were made to the process of building the GEO population in ORDEM 3.1, both in the assessment of fragmentation debris in the data and assignment of orbital elements within the model. A so-called debris ring filter, based on a range of angles between an orbits angular momentum vector and that of the stable Laplace plane, was applied to the data to reduce biases from non- GEO objects, such as objects in a GEO-transfer orbit. In addition, a new approach was implemented to assign noncircular mean motions and eccentricities to the fragmentation debris observed by MODEST because the short observation window (5 min) in GEO limits orbit resolution to a circular orbit assumption for assigning orbital parameters. For ORDEM 3.1, non-circular orbital elements were assigned using relationships that were identified between mean motion and the angle between the orbit plane and the stable Laplace plane, as well as between mean motion and eccentricity, based on breakup clouds modeled by the NASA Standard Breakup Model. This approach has yielded a high-fidelity GEO model that has been validated with data from more recent MODEST observation campaigns

An Analysis of Recent Major Breakups in the Low Earth Orbit Region

Of the 4 recent major breakup events, the FY-1C ASAT test and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 generated the most long-term impact to the environment. About half of the fragments will still remain in orbit at least 20 years after the breakup. The A/M distribution of the Cosmos 2251 fragments is well-described by the NASA Breakup Model. Satellites made of modern materials (such as Iridium 33), equipped with large solar panels, or covered with large MLI layers (such as FY-1C) may generated significant amount of high A/M fragments upon breakup

ORDEM 3.1 Development Status

In this presentation we shall review NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) scope, intended use, and version history; development of the latest version, v. 3.1; provide a current development status; and discuss current deployment plans. We will also place ORDEM in context with other NASA and US models as well as the ESA MASTER model, ORDEMs closest analogue model

Probable Rotation States of Rocket Bodies in Low Earth Orbit

In order for Active Debris Removal to be accomplished, it is critically important to understand the probable rotation states of orbiting, spent rocket bodies. As compared to the question of characterizing small unresolved debris, in this problem there are several advantages: (1) objects are of known size, mass, shape and color, (2) they have typically been in orbit for a known period of time, (3) they are large enough that resolved images may be obtainable for verification of predicted orientation, and (4) the dynamical problem is simplified to first order by largely cylindrical symmetry. It is also nearly certain for realistic rocket bodies that internal friction is appreciable in the case where residual liquid or, to a lesser degree, unconsolidated solid fuels exist. Equations of motion have been developed for this problem in which internal friction as well as torques due to solar radiation, magnetic induction, and gravitational gradient are included. In the case of pure cylindrical symmetry, the results are compared to analytical predictions patterned after the standard approach for analysis of symmetrical tops. This is possible because solar radiation and gravitational torques may be treated as conservative. Agreement between results of both methods ensures their mutual validity. For monotone symmetric cylinders, solar radiation torque vanishes if the center of mass resides at the geometric center of the object. Results indicate that in the absence of solar radiation effects, rotation states tend toward an equilibrium configuration in which rotation is about the axis of maximum inertia, with the axis of minimum inertia directed toward the center of the earth. Solar radiation torque introduces a modification to this orientation. The equilibrium state is asymptotically approached within a characteristic timescale given by a simple ratio of relevant characterizing parameters for the body in question. Light curves are simulated for the expected asymptotic final rotation states of model objects, and these are compared to data derived from physical models of the same objects, tested in the Optical Measurements Center at JSC. Comparison to relevant light curves from actual orbiting rocket bodies are also performed, and diagnostic features of such curves are examined

Analysis of WFPC-2 Core Samples for MMOD Discrimination

An examination of the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC-2) radiator assembly was conducted at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center during the summer of 2009. Immediately apparent was the predominance of impact features, identified as simple or complex craters, resident only in the thermal paint layer; similar features were observed during a prior survey of the WFPC-1 radiator. Larger impact features displayed spallation zones, darkened areas, and other features not observed in impacts onto bare surfaces. Craters were extracted by coring the radiator in the NASA Johnson Space Centers Space Exposed Hardware cleanroom and were subsequently examined using scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy to determine the likely origin, e.g., micrometeoritic or orbital debris, of the impacting projectile. Recently, a selection of large cores was re-examined using a new technique developed to overcome some limitations of traditional crater imaging and analysis. This technique, motivated by thin section analysis, examines a polished, lateral surface area revealed by cross-sectioning the core sample. This paper reviews the technique, the classification rubric as extended by this technique, and results to date

Space Debris Sensor Recent Anomaly Attribution Scenario

No abstract availabl

Interpretation of Impact Features on the Surface of the WFPC-2 Radiator

An examination of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC-2) radiator assembly was conducted at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) during the summer of 2009. Immediately apparent was the predominance of impact features resident only in the thermal paint layer; similar phenomenology was observed during a prior survey of the WFPC-1 radiator. As well, larger impact features displayed spallation zones, darkened areas, and other features not encountered in impacts onto bare surfaces. Whereas the characterization of impact features by depth and diameter on unpainted surfaces has been long established, the mitigation provided by the painted layer presented a challenge to further analysis of the WFPC-2 features; a literature search revealed no systematic characterization of the ballistic limit equations of painted or coated surfaces. In order to characterize the impactors responsible for the observed damage, an understanding of the cratering and spallation phenomenology of the painted surface was required. To address that challenge, NASA sponsored a series of hypervelocity calibration shots at the White Sands Test Facility (WSTF). This effort required the following activities: the production, painting, and artificial ageing of test coupons in a manner similar to the actual radiator; the determination of the test matrix parameters projectile diameter and material (mass density), impact velocity, and impact angle, so as to enable both an adequate characterization of the impact by projectile and impact geometry and support hydrocode modeling to fill in and extend the applicability of the calibration shots; the selection of suitable projectiles; logistics; and an analysis of feature characteristics upon return of the coupons. This paper reports the results of the test campaign and presents ballistic limit equations for painted surfaces. We also present initial results of our interpretation methodologies

NASA Orbital Debris Large-Object Baseline Population in ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has created and validated high fidelity populations of the debris environment for the latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 3.0). Though the model includes fluxes of objects 10 um and larger, this paper considers particle fluxes for 1 cm and larger debris objects from low Earth orbit (LEO) through Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). These are validated by several reliable radar observations through the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radars. ORDEM 3.0 populations were designed for the purpose of assisting, debris researchers and sensor developers in planning and testing. This environment includes a background derived from the LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris evolutionary model (LEGEND) with a Bayesian rescaling as well as specific events such as the FY-1C anti-satellite test, the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 accidental collision, and the Soviet/Russian Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium droplet releases. The environment described in this paper is the most realistic orbital debris population larger than 1 cm, to date. We describe derivations of the background population and added specific populations. We present sample validation charts of our 1 cm and larger LEO population against Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radar measurements