Of the 4 recent major breakup events, the FY-1C ASAT test and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 generated the most long-term impact to the environment. About half of the fragments will still remain in orbit at least 20 years after the breakup. The A/M distribution of the Cosmos 2251 fragments is well-described by the NASA Breakup Model. Satellites made of modern materials (such as Iridium 33), equipped with large solar panels, or covered with large MLI layers (such as FY-1C) may generated significant amount of high A/M fragments upon breakup

Anz-Meador, P. D.

Liou, J.-C.

NASA Technical Reports Server

National Aeronautics and Space Administration
An Analysis of Recent Major Breakups
in the Low Earth Orbit region
J.-C. Liou1 and P.D. Anz-Meador2
1NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, Johnson Space 
Center, Houston, Texas, USA
2ESCG/Jacobs, Houston, Texas, USA
61st International Astronautical Congress
27 September – 1 October 2010
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100035122 2019-08-30T11:55:59+00:00Z
2/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
Outline
• Four recent major breakup events
– Fengyun-1C (FY-1C), Briz-M, Cosmos 2421, Iridium 33, 
Cosmos 2251
– The analysis is limited to objects in the SSN catalog and is 
based on data available as of September 2010
• Fragment size and A/M distributions
• Orbital lifetime and long-term environment impact
3/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
A Summary of the Events
Satellite Breakup Time
Satellite 
Mass (kg)
Altitude 
(km)
Debris 
Cataloged  
(Left)
Cause
FY-1C Jan 2007 950 850 3037(2944)
Deliberate 
Collision
Briz-M Feb 2007 2600 7600 92(88) Explosion
Cosmos 
2421 Mar 2008 3000 410
509
(13) Unknown
Iridium 33 Feb 2009 560 790 528(499)
Accidental 
Collision
Cosmos 
2251 Feb 2009 900 790
1347
(1287)
Accidental 
Collision
4/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
Brief Descriptions of the Events (1/2)
• FY-1C anti-satellite test
– Worst on-orbit fragmentation ever
– Due to the high breakup altitude, fragments will remain in orbit 
for decades to come
• Briz-M explosion
– Initial observations suggested more than 1000 detectable 
fragments were generated
– Due to man-power limitation and sensor availability, only 92 
fragments have been cataloged
• Cosmos 2241 fragmentation
– Last member of the Russian Cosmos 699-class spacecraft with 
a long history of fragmentation due to unknown causes
– Majority (>97%) of the fragments have decayed
5/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
Brief Descriptions of the Events (2/2)
• Collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251
– First ever accidental collision between two intact satellites (one 
was still active at the time of the event)
– Highlights the orbital debris problem and underlines the serious 
consequences of the “Kessler Syndrome”
6/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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0
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1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
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ve
nt
Time
Historical Breakups
Historical Breakups - Debris Cataloged
FY-1C ASAT Test
Iridium plus Cosmos
Cosmos 2421
7/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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0
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ep
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01
0)
Time
Historical Breakups
Historical Breakups - Debris Left (Sep 2010)
FY-1C ASAT Test
Iridium plus Cosmos
Cosmos 2421
8/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
0
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N
um
be
r 
of
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bj
ec
ts
Year
Number of Objects in Earth Orbit by Object Type (SSN Catalog)
Total Objects
Fragmentation Debris
Spacecraft
Mission-related Debris
Rocket Bodies
Growth of the Historical Debris Populations
FY-1C ASAT Test
Iridium-Cosmos
Cosmos 2421
9/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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Fragment Size Distributions
(8 September 2010 RCS data)
1
10
100
1000
10000
0.01 0.1 1 10
C
um
ul
at
iv
e 
N
um
be
r
Characteristic Size (m)
FY-1C
Cosmos 2251
Iridium 33
Cosmos 2421
Briz-M
• All fragment clouds follow a power-law size distribution with a level-off around 13 cm
• Some uncertainties in the slope are expected due to RCS calibration and size conversion
10/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
0
50
100
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500
-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
N
um
be
r
Log10(A/M m2/kg)
A/M Comparison (fragments between 10 and 20 cm)
FY-1C fragments  (9/17/2010 data)
NASA Breakup Model Prediction
A/M Distribution of FY-1C Fragments
1. P78 solar panel ~0.2 m2/kg
2. Sample solar panel with honeycomb ~0.24 m2/kg 
3. Thin CFRP panel ~0.3 m2/kg
4. Layers of sample flat MLI ~1 to ~18 m2/kg
1
• There are more fragments, and more light-weight materials (plastic, solar panel, MLI pieces) 
in the FY-1C cloud than in the NASA model prediction
• FY-1C was covered with MLI and equipped with two  4 m × 1.5 m solar panels
423
11/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
A/M Distribution of Iridium 33 Fragments (1/2)
• The A/M distribution of the Iridium 33 fragments appears to be systematically higher than 
the NASA model prediction
• Lightweight composite materials were extensively used in the construction of the vehicle
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
N
um
be
r
Log10(A/M m2/kg)
A/M Distribution of Iridium 33 Fragments
NASA Breakup Model Prediction
SATCAT Data (17 September 2010)
12/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
A/M Distribution of Iridium 33 Fragments (2/2)
• The A/M distribution of the Iridium 33 fragments is approximately a factor of 3 higher 
than the NASA model prediction
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
N
um
be
r
Log10(A/M m2/kg)
A/M Distribution of Iridium 33 Fragments
NASA Breakup Model Prediction
SATCAT Data, A/M/3 (17 September 2010)
13/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
A/M Distribution of Cosmos 2251 Fragments
• The A/M distribution of the Cosmos 2251 fragments matches well with the NASA 
model prediction
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
N
um
be
r (
N
or
m
al
iz
ed
)
Log10(A/M m2/kg)
A/M Distribution of Cosmos 2251 Fragments
NASA Breakup Model Prediction
SATCAT Data (17 September 2010)
14/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
Long-Term Evolution of the FY-1C Debris Cloud
0
10
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2005
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Pe
rc
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t o
f O
bj
ec
ts
 S
ti
ll 
in
 O
rb
it
Year
Percent of Fengyun 1C Breakup Fragments
Still in Earth Orbit as a Function of Calendar Year
Half of the FY-1C debris will decay by 2024
15/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
0
10
20
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Pe
rc
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t o
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ti
ll 
in
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rb
it
Year
Percent of  Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 Collision Fragments
Still in Earth Orbit as a Function of Calendar Year
% of Total Event Collision Debris
% of Cosmos 2251 Objects
% of Iridium 33 Objects
Long-Term Evolution of the I/C Debris Clouds
Half of the Iridium debris will decay by 2015
Half of the Cosmos debris will decay by 2022
16/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
Long-term Environmental Impact of FY-1C
and Iridium-Cosmos Fragments
• The impact of the Iridium-Cosmos fragments is limited to the next 40 years
• FY-1C fragments have a higher and more long-term effect to the LEO environment
0
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1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
Ef
fe
ct
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um
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r o
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bj
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 (>
10
 c
m
)
Year
LEO Environment Projection (averages of 100 LEGEND MC runs)
Historical environment included FY-1C and Iridium-Cosmos
Historical environment included FY-1C, but no Iridium-Cosmos
Historical environment included Iridium-Cosmos, but no FY-1C
17/17
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
JCL
Summary
• Of the 4 recent major breakup events, the FY-1C 
ASAT test and the collision between Iridium 33 and 
Cosmos 2251 generated the most long-term impact 
to the environment
– About half of the fragments will still remain in orbit at least 20 
years after the breakup
– The A/M distribution of the Cosmos 2251 fragments is well-
described by the NASA Breakup Model
– Satellites made of modern materials (such as Iridium 33), 
equipped with large solar panels, or covered with large MLI 
layers (such as FY-1C) may generated significant amount of 
high A/M fragments upon breakup


An Analysis of Recent Major Breakups in the Low Earth Orbit Region

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