Finite Mixture Analysis of Beauty-Contest Data from Multiple Samples

This paper develops a finite mixture distribution analysis of Beauty- Contest data obtained from diverse groups of experiments. ML estimation using the EM approach provides estimates for the means and variances of the component distributions, which are common to all the groups, and estimates of the mixing proportions, which are specific to each group. This estimation is performed without imposing constraints on the parameters of the composing distributions. The statistical analysis indicates that many individuals follow a common pattern of reasoning described as iterated best reply (degenerate), and shows that the proportions of people thinking at different levels of depth vary across groups.Beauty-Contest experiments, reasoning hierarchy, finite mixture distribution, EM algorithm

Credit Constraints in General Equilibrium: Experimental Results.

The authors' work attempts to investigate the influence of credit tightness or expansion on activity and relative prices in a multimarket set-up. They report on some double-action, two-market experiments where subjects had to satisfy an inequality involving the use of credit. The experiments display two regimes, characterized by high and low credit availability. The authors' main results are that changes in the availability of credit: (1) have minor and unsystematic effects on quantities and relative prices in the high-credit regime; and (2) have substantial effects, both on quantities and relative prices, in the low-credit regime. Copyright 1997 by Royal Economic Society.

Cognitive Bubbles

Smith et al. (Econometrica 56(5):1119, 1988) reported large bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets, a result that has been replicated many times. Here we test whether the occurrence of bubbles depends on the experimental subjects' cognitive sophistication. In a two-part experiment, we first run a battery of tests to assess the subjects' cognitive sophistication and classify them into low or high levels. We then invite them separately to two asset market experiments populated only by subjects with either low or high cognitive sophistication. We observe classic bubble and crash patterns in markets populated by subjects with low levels of cognitive sophistication. Yet, no bubbles or crashes are observed with our sophisticated subjects, indicating that cognitive sophistication of the experimental market participants has a strong impact on price efficiency