Modelling solid waste management solutions: The case of Campania, Italy

The waste crisis in Campania has inspired a huge body of literature that has described its complex nature. Quantitative analysis in this regard provides useful insight into single aspects of the problem but from a static perspective. In this work, a dynamic model has been developed to analyse the interactions between the main elements of the waste system in Campania and their evolution over the critical time horizon. The model considers the process of capacity construction that has been developed to deal with the crisis and the flow of waste through the treatment options available, showing how the waste system behaves if such infrastructures are not able to cope with the amounts expected. The model also provides the analytical framework to explore the effects of alternative waste policies. © 2018 Elsevier Lt

Comparing health workforce forecasting approaches for healthcare planning: The case for ophthalmologists

Health workforce planning is essential in the provision of quality healthcare. Several approaches to planning are customarily used and advocated, each with unique underlying assumptions. Thus, a thorough understanding of each assumption is required in order to make an informed decision on the choice of forecasting approach to be used. For illustration, we compare results for eye care requirements in Singapore using three established workforce forecasting approaches – workforce-to-population-ratio, needs based approach, utilization based approach – and a proposed robust integrated approach to discuss the appropriateness of each approach under various scenarios. Four simulation models using the systems modeling methodology of system dynamics were developed for use in each approach. These models were initialized and simulated using the example of eye care workforce planning in Singapore, to project the number of ophthalmologists required up to the year 2040 under the four different approaches. We found that each approach projects a different number of ophthalmologists required over time. The needs based approach tends to project the largest number of required ophthalmologists, followed by integrated, utilization based and workforce-to-population ratio approaches in descending order. The four different approaches vary widely in their forecasted workforce requirements and reinforce the need to be discerning of the fundamental differences of each approach in order to choose the most appropriate one. Further, health workforce planning should also be approached in a comprehensive and integrated manner that accounts for developments in demographic and healthcare systems

Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore

#### Background Singapore’s population, as that of many other countries, is aging; this is likely to lead to an increase in eye diseases and the demand for eye care. Since ophthalmologist training is long and expensive, early planning is essential. This paper forecasts workforce and training requirements for Singapore up to the year 2040 under several plausible future scenarios. #### Methods The Singapore Eye Care Workforce Model was created as a continuous time compartment model with explicit workforce stocks using system dynamics. The model has three modules: prevalence of eye disease, demand, and workforce requirements. The model is used to simulate the prevalence of eye diseases, patient visits, and workforce requirements for the public sector under different scenarios in order to determine training requirements. #### Results Four scenarios were constructed. Under the baseline business-as-usual scenario, the required number of ophthalmologists is projected to increase by 117% from 2015 to 2040. Under the current policy scenario (assuming an increase of service uptake due to increased awareness, availability, and accessibility of eye care services), the increase will be 175%, while under the new model of care scenario (considering the additional effect of providing some services by non-ophthalmologists) the increase will only be 150%. The moderated workload scenario (assuming in addition a reduction of the clinical workload) projects an increase in the required number of ophthalmologists of 192% by 2040. Considering the uncertainties in the projected demand for eye care services, under the business-as-usual scenario, a residency intake of 8–22 residents per year is required, 17–21 under the current policy scenario, 14–18 under the new model of care scenario, and, under the moderated workload scenario, an intake of 18–23 residents per year is required. #### Conclusions The results show that under all scenarios considered, Singapore’s aging and growing population will result in an almost doubling of the number of Singaporeans with eye conditions, a significant increase in public sector eye care demand and, consequently, a greater requirement for ophthalmologists

Modeling debt accumulation in Pakistan: A system dynamics approach

10.2316/P.2011.735-050Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Modelling and Simulation123-12

An evaluation of the impact of aggressive hypertension, diabetes and smoking cessation management on CVD outcomes at the population level: A dynamic simulation analysis

10.1186/s12889-019-7429-2BMC Public Health191110

Implications of long-term care capacity response policies for an aging population: A simulation analysis

10.1016/j.healthpol.2014.01.006Health Policy1161105-113HEPO

Impact of sugar-sweetened beverage tax on dental caries: A simulation analysis

10.1186/s12903-020-1061-5BMC Oral Health2017

Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: Insights from a dynamic simulation model

10.1186/s12877-016-0243-0BMC Geriatrics16124

Designing a multiple stakeholder dialogue - initial lessons learnt in navigating through conflicts in the Ghana forestry sector

The 5 year project (2007 – 2012) to “Develop alternatives for illegal chainsaw lumbering through multi-stakeholder dialogue in Ghana and Guyana” is implemented by a consortium of partners7 to address the degradation of natural forests in both countries. Both Guyana and Ghana show a high incidence of chainsaw lumbering. While in Guyana the practice is legal and controlled, in Ghana it is banned since 19988. However, in many forest fringe communities, chainsaw lumbering is an important source of livelihood despite the high level of conflict associated with the practice. Chainsaw lumbering, which refers to on-site conversion of logs into lumber using chainsaws for commercial purposes, offers livelihood opportunities to large rural groups, who are often living in places that offer few alternatives