Predicting the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran

Climate change is an important growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Previous studies have shown that climate change will negatively influence on Iran’s biodiversity. Reptiles are among the most vulnerable group to climate change. Until now, more than 80 snake species have been recorded in Iran in which 16 are terrestrial venomous. In the present study, we predicted the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran. We applied an ensemble approach, using five distribution modeling methods (Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, Generalized Boosted Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling and Random Forest) to predict the impacts of climate change on distribution pattern of the genus. We also estimated protected areas coverage for the suitable habitat of the genus under current and future climatic conditions. We found that the genus will lose 11% of its suitable habitat under the worst-case scenario (2071-2100SSP585). Results also showed that only around 8% of the genus suitable habitat is covered by protected areas under current and future climatic conditions. Stable suitable but not protected habitats have high priority for conservation of the genus in Iran

Mapping endemic freshwater fish richness to identify high‐priority areas for conservation: An ecoregion approach

Abstract Freshwater ecosystems are experiencing accelerating global biodiversity loss. Thus, knowing where these unique ecosystems' species richness reaches a peak can facilitate their conservation planning. By hosting more than 290 freshwater fishes, Iran is a major freshwater fish hotspot in the Middle East. Considering the accelerating rate of biodiversity loss, there is an urgent need to identify species‐rich areas and understand the mechanisms driving biodiversity distribution. In this study, we gathered distribution records of all endemic freshwater fishes of Iran (85 species) to develop their richness map and determine the most critical drivers of their richness patterns from an ecoregion approach. We performed a generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi‐Poisson distribution to identify contemporary and historical determinants of endemic freshwater fish richness. We also quantified endemic fish similarity among the 15 freshwater ecoregions of Iran. Results showed that endemic freshwater fish richness is highest in the Zagros Mountains while a moderate level of richness was observed between Zagros and Alborz Mountains. High, moderate, and low richness of endemic freshwater fish match with Upper Tigris & Euphrates, Namak, and Kavir & Lut Deserts ecoregions respectively. Kura – South Caspian Drainages and Caspian Highlands were the most similar ecoregions and Orumiyeh was the most unique ecoregion according to endemic fish presence. Precipitation and precipitation change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum were the most important predictors of endemic freshwater fish richness. Areas identified to have the highest species richness have high priority for the conservation of freshwater fish in Iran, therefore, should be considered in future protected areas development

Modelling Neanderthals’ dispersal routes from Caucasus towards east

The study of the cultural materials associated with the Neanderthal physical remains from the sites in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Siberian Altai and adjacent areas documents two distinct techno-complexes of Micoquian and Mousterian. These findings potentially outline two dispersal routes for the Neanderthals out of Europe. Using data on topography and Palaeoclimate, we generated computer-based least-cost-path modelling for the Neanderthal dispersal routes from Caucasus towards the east. In this regard, two dispersal routes have been identified: A northern route from Greater Caucasus associated with Micoquian techno-complex towards Siberian Altai and a southern route from Lesser Caucasus associated with Mousterian towards Siberian Altai via the Southern Caspian Corridor. Based on archaeological, bio- and physio-geographical data, our model hypothesises that during climatic deterioration phases (e.g. MIS 4) the connection between Greater and Lesser Caucasus was limited. This issue perhaps resulted in the separate development and spread of two cultural groups of Micoquian and Mousterian with an input from two different population sources of Neanderthal influxes: eastern and southern Europe refugia for these two northern and southern dispersal routes respectively. Of these two, we focus on the southern dispersal route, for it comprises a ‘rapid dispersal route’ towards east. The significant location of the Southern Caspian corridor between high mountains of Alborz and the Caspian Sea, provided a special biogeographical zone and a refugium. This exceptional physio-geographic condition brings forward the Southern Caspian corridor as a potential place of admixture of different hominin species including Neanderthals and homo sapiens

Modelling Neanderthals' dispersal routes from Caucasus towards east.

The study of the cultural materials associated with the Neanderthal physical remains from the sites in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Siberian Altai and adjacent areas documents two distinct techno-complexes of Micoquian and Mousterian. These findings potentially outline two dispersal routes for the Neanderthals out of Europe. Using data on topography and Palaeoclimate, we generated computer-based least-cost-path modelling for the Neanderthal dispersal routes from Caucasus towards the east. In this regard, two dispersal routes have been identified: A northern route from Greater Caucasus associated with Micoquian techno-complex towards Siberian Altai and a southern route from Lesser Caucasus associated with Mousterian towards Siberian Altai via the Southern Caspian Corridor. Based on archaeological, bio- and physio-geographical data, our model hypothesises that during climatic deterioration phases (e.g. MIS 4) the connection between Greater and Lesser Caucasus was limited. This issue perhaps resulted in the separate development and spread of two cultural groups of Micoquian and Mousterian with an input from two different population sources of Neanderthal influxes: eastern and southern Europe refugia for these two northern and southern dispersal routes respectively. Of these two, we focus on the southern dispersal route, for it comprises a 'rapid dispersal route' towards east. The significant location of the Southern Caspian corridor between high mountains of Alborz and the Caspian Sea, provided a special biogeographical zone and a refugium. This exceptional physio-geographic condition brings forward the Southern Caspian corridor as a potential place of admixture of different hominin species including Neanderthals and homo sapiens

Reptile fauna of the Khajeh protected area, with assessingits similarities with physiogeographical area of the Iranian Lizards

Natural habitats of the Iranian reptiles in many areas of the country are destroying due to several reasons. In such conditions the protected areas can act as the shelter sites for many organisms. Therefore it seems quite necessary that, under management of the department of environment, the reptiles' fauna of these areas, comprehensively be studied and reported. The protected area of Khajeh with 37552 Hectares is located in 70 km west of Sarakhs city. This is one of the most important protected areas of Khorasan Razavi province. In a long term study of the reptiles in this area which lasted 5 years, 11 species of lizards, Paralaudakia erythrogastra, Trapelus agilis, Pseudopus apodus, Tenuidactylus caspius, Cyrtopodion scabrum, Eremias velox, Eremias persica, Mesalina watsonana, Ablepharus pannonicus, Trachylepis aurata, Varanus greseus belonging to 5 families, 7 species of snakes, Typhlops vermicularis, Platyceps rhodorachis, Psammophis schokari, Hemorrhois ravergieri, Malpolon insignitus, Macrovipera lebetina and Naja oxiana belonging to 4 families and one species of turtles, Testudo horsfieldii, were collected, recognized and reported from the area. We used Jaccard index for studying the similarity of lizard fauna between Khajeh Protected Area and 13 physiogeographical areas of Iran. Our results show that Khajeh Protected Area has the highest similarity index with Kopet Dagh and The Sistan Basin, respectively

Climate change produces winners and losers: Differential responses of amphibians in mountain forests of the Near East

Climate change is now considered as a serious threat to the viability of many species and consequently as one of the major drivers of global biodiversity loss. Amphibians serve critical roles in forest ecosystems and are one of the most sensitive groups to environmental change. Despite the importance of amphibians in forest ecosystems and their sensitivity to environmental changes, little is known about potential impacts of future climate change on forest-dwelling amphibians. We projected the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of three typical species of forest-dwelling amphibians, the Balkan Crested Newt (Triturus ivanbureschi), the Anatolian Crested Newt (T. anatolicus) and the Southern Crested Newt (T. karelinii). We also evaluated the representation of suitable habitats of the three crested newts in protected areas under the current and future climatic condition. We found that the Balkan Crested Newt and the Anatolian Crested Newt are likely to lose considerable proportions of their currently suitable habitats in the future as climate changes, while the Southern Crested Newt is likely to gain new habitats. Results showed that the future coverage of the most suitable habitats inside protected areas would drop by 22% and 49.2% for the Balkan Crested Newt and for the Anatolian Crested Newt, respectively. However, results showed a 15.7% increase in the suitable habitats of the Southern Crested Newt inside protected areas. Our study suggests that forest biodiversity will be negatively affected by future climatic change. Our findings also highlight the importance of integrating the impacts of climate change into designation of new protected areas in mountain forests of the Near East

Climate change produces winners and losers: Differential responses of amphibians in mountain forests of the Near East

Climate change is now considered as a serious threat to the viability of many species and consequently as one of the major drivers of global biodiversity loss. Amphibians serve critical roles in forest ecosystems and are one of the most sensitive groups to environmental change. Despite the importance of amphibians in forest ecosystems and their sensitivity to environmental changes, little is known about potential impacts of future climate change on forest-dwelling amphibians. We projected the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of three typical species of forest-dwelling amphibians, the Balkan Crested Newt (Triturus ivanbureschi), the Anatolian Crested Newt (T. anatolicus) and the Southern Crested Newt (T. karelinii). We also evaluated the representation of suitable habitats of the three crested newts in protected areas under the current and future climatic condition. We found that the Balkan Crested Newt and the Anatolian Crested Newt are likely to lose considerable proportions of their currently suitable habitats in the future as climate changes, while the Southern Crested Newt is likely to gain new habitats. Results showed that the future coverage of the most suitable habitats inside protected areas would drop by 22% and 49.2% for the Balkan Crested Newt and for the Anatolian Crested Newt, respectively. However, results showed a 15.7% increase in the suitable habitats of the Southern Crested Newt inside protected areas. Our study suggests that forest biodiversity will be negatively affected by future climatic change. Our findings also highlight the importance of integrating the impacts of climate change into designation of new protected areas in mountain forests of the Near East. Keywords: Crested newts, Climate change, Distribution modeling, Conservation, Protected area

Reptile species richness associated to ecological and historical variables in Iran

Spatial gradients of species richness can be shaped by the interplay between historical and ecological factors. They might interact in particularly complex ways in heterogeneous mountainous landscapes with strong climatic and geological contrasts. We mapped the distribution of 171 lizard species to investigate species richness patterns for all species (171), diurnal species (101), and nocturnal species (70) separately. We related species richness with the historical (past climate change, mountain uplifting) and ecological variables (climate, topography and vegetation). We found that assemblages in the Western Zagros Mountains, north eastern and north western parts of Central Iranian Plateau have the highest number of lizard species. Among the investigated variables, annual mean temperature explained the largest variance for all species (10%) and nocturnal species (31%). For diurnal species, temperature change velocity shows strongest explained variance in observed richness pattern (26%). Together, our results reveal that areas with annual temperature of 15–20 °C, which receive 400–600 mm precipitation and experienced moderate level of climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have highest number of species. Documented patterns of our study provide a baseline for understanding the potential effect of ongoing climate change on lizard diversity in Iran.ISSN:2045-232