Cross-section data, disequilibrium situations and estimated coefficients: evidence from car ownership demand

The objective of this paper is to analyse to what extent the use of cross-section data will distort the estimated elasticities for car ownership demand when the observed variables do not correspond to a state equilibrium for some individuals in the sample. Our proposal consists of approximating the equilibrium values of the observed variables by constructing a pseudo-panel data set which entails averaging individuals observed at different points of time into cohorts. The results show that individual and aggregate data lead to almost the same value for income elasticity, whereas with respect to working adult elasticity the similarity is less pronounced.Cross-section, Pseudo panel, Disequilibrium.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

Weak value amplification and Hong Ou Mandel effects for quantum sensing

The use of new states of light (quantum sensing and quantum imaging) has opened the door to new protocols for parameter estimation with enhanced resolution. In this project we study two techniques that allow increasing the resolution of measurements, allowing the detection of extremely small changes in variables. In one case, when resolution is limited by technical noise, the protocol is Weak Value Amplification (WVA). In the second case, we make use of quantum interference and develop a new type of microscope (Quantum Differential Interference Contrast, QDIC) that does phase retrieval based on the Hong-Ou- Mandel effect. We consider phase objects, such as sub-wavelength gratings and cliff-like structures, to show the capabilities and potential of the techniques considered. In this project we will explore how the birefringence induced in the Differential Interference contrast microscopy system can be translated into temporal delays that can be measured with WVA. The Hong Ou Mandel (HOM) effect was demonstrated in 1987 as a way to measure subpicosecond time intervals between two Photons. It is an effect very sensitive to differences between the photons that interfere (polarization, temporal delay, spatial shape...). We will explore in this project how phase differences introduced by objects can be translated into different states of polarization that can be measured with HOM

Hedonic prices for cars: an application to the Spanish car market, 1981-2005

In this paper we provide a comparison of different formulations for hedonic regression analysis in order to construct a quality-adjusted price index for the Spanish car market over the period 1981-2005. Specifically, we address the issue of instability of coefficients over time, and propose two alternative estimation procedures based, firstly, on a moving sample of observations and, secondly, on a moving average of estimated coefficients in single period equations. The statistical tests applied support the proposed methodologies. On empirical grounds two conclusions can be emphasised. Firstly, our study concludes that, taking quality changes into account, car prices in Spain deflated by CPI declined by 40% between 1981 and 2005. This result is robust to the alternative estimation procedures employed in the study. Secondly, an analysis of sigma-convergence shows that for quality-adjusted prices a clear trend in σ-convergence emerges between 1986 and 1992, whereas such a trend does not exists for observed prices. This result has to be related to Spain’s integration into the European Comunity

Soliton eigenvalue control with optical lattices

We address the dynamics of higher-order solitons in optical lattices, and predict their self-splitting into the set of their single-soliton constituents. The splitting is induced by the potential introduced by the lattice, together with the imprinting of a phase tilt onto the initial multisoliton states. The phenomenon allows the controllable generation of several coherent solitons linked via their Zakharov-Shabat eigenvalues. Application of the scheme to the generation of correlated matter waves in Bose-Einstein condensates is discussed.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Physical Review Letter

The relationship between zinc intake and serum/plasma zinc concentration in adults: a systematic review and dose–response meta-analysis by the EURRECA Network

Dietary zinc recommendations vary widely across Europe due to the heterogeneity of pproaches used by expert panels. Under the EURRECA consortium a protocol was designed to systematically review and undertake meta-analyses of research data to create a database that includes “best practice” guidelines which can be used as a resource by future panels when setting micronutrient recommendations. As part of this process, the objective of the present study was to undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis of previously published data describing the relationship between zinc intake and status in adults. Searches were performed of literature published up to February 2010 using MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library. Data extracted included population characteristics, dose of zinc, duration of study, dietary intake of zinc, and mean concentration of zinc in plasma or serum at the end of the intervention period. An intake-status regression coefficient was estimated for each individual study, and pooled meta-analysis undertaken. The overall pooled for zinc supplementation on serum/plasma zinc concentrations from RCTs and observational studies was 0.08 (95% CI 0.05, 0.11; p<0.0001; I2 84.5%). An overall of 0.08 means that for every doubling in zinc intake, the difference in zinc serum or plasma concentration is (20.08 = 1.06), which is 6%. Whether the dose-response relationship, as provided in this paper, could be used as either qualitative or quantitative evidence to substantiate the daily zinc intake dose necessary to achieve normal or optimal levels of biomarkers for zinc status, remains a matter of discussion

Visions of a Martian Future

As we look beyond our terrestrial boundary to a multi-planetary future for humankind, it becomes paramount to anticipate the challenges of various human factors on the most likely scenario for this future: permanent human settlement of Mars. Even if technical hurdles are circumvented to provide adequate resources for basic physiological and psychological needs, Homo sapiens will not survive on an alien planet if a dysfunctional psyche prohibits the utilization of these resources. No matter how far we soar into the stars, our psychologies for future generations will be forever tethered to the totality of our surroundings. By shaping our environment toward survival and welfare during the voyage to Mars and in a Martian colony, we indirectly shape our psyches and prepare them for a mission of unprecedented alienation and duration. Once on Mars, human factors such as leadership structure, social organization and code of conduct, group size, gender balance, developmental cycle, mobility, length of stay and the ecological settings and type and manner of subsistence, will create a novel Martian culture. The degree that settlers are severed from the Earth will affect how radically foreign this culture will be when compared with cultures on Earth

Stabilization of vector solitons in optical lattices

We address the properties and dynamical stability of one-dimensional vector lattice solitons in Kerr-type cubic medium with harmonic transverse modulation of refractive index. We discovered that unstable families of scalar lattice solitons can be stabilized via the cross-phase modulation (XPM) in the vector case. It was found that multi-humped vector solitons that are unstable in uniform media where XPM strength is higher than that of self-phase modulation, can also be stabilized by the lattice.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures. To appear in Physical Review E, vol. 7