The Illogicality of Stock-Brokers: Psychological Experiments on the Effects of Prior Knowledge and Belief Biases on Logical Reasoning in Stock Trading

BACKGROUND: Explanations for the current worldwide financial crisis are primarily provided by economists and politicians. However, in the present work we focus on the psychological-cognitive factors that most likely affect the thinking of people on the economic stage and thus might also have had an effect on the progression of the crises. One of these factors might be the effect of prior beliefs on reasoning and decision-making. So far, this question has been explored only to a limited extent. METHODS: We report two experiments on logical reasoning competences of nineteen stock-brokers with long-lasting vocational experiences at the stock market. The premises of reasoning problems concerned stock trading and the experiments varied whether or not their conclusions--a proposition which is reached after considering the premises--agreed with the brokers' prior beliefs. Half of the problems had a conclusion that was highly plausible for stock-brokers while the other half had a highly implausible conclusion. RESULTS: The data show a strong belief bias. Stock-brokers were strongly biased by their prior knowledge. Lowest performance was found for inferences in which the problems caused a conflict between logical validity and the experts' belief. In these cases, the stock-brokers tended to make logically invalid inferences rather than give up their existing beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the thesis that cognitive factors have an effect on the decision-making on the financial market. In the present study, stock-brokers were guided more by past experience and existing beliefs than by logical thinking and rational decision-making. They had difficulties to disengage themselves from vastly anchored thinking patterns. However, we believe, that it is wrong to accuse the brokers for their "malfunctions", because such hard-wired cognitive principles are difficult to suppress even if the person is aware of them

Optics and Quantum Electronics

Contains table of contents for Section 3 and reports on twenty-one research projects.Joint Services Electronics Program Contract DAAL03-89-C-0001Joint Services Electronics Program Contract DAAL03-92-C-0001U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Contract F49620-91-C-0091Charles S. Draper Laboratories Contract DL-H-441629MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCharles S. Draper Laboratories, Inc. Contract DL-H-418478Fujitsu LaboratoriesNational Science Foundation Grant ECS 90-12787National Center for Integrated PhotonicsNational Science Foundation Grant EET 88-15834National Science Foundation Grant ECS 85-52701U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Contract F49620-88-C-0089U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Contract N00014-91-C-0084U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-91-J-1956Johnson and Johnson Research GrantNational Institutes of Health Contract 2-R01-GM35459U.S. Department of Energy Grant DE-FG02-89 ER14012-A00

Optics and Quantum Electronics

Contains table of contents for Section 3 and reports on twenty-three research projects.Joint Services Electronics Program Contract DAAL03-92-C-0001U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Contract F49620-91-C-0091Charles S. Draper Laboratories Contract DL-H-441629MIT Lincoln LaboratoryNational Science Foundation Grant ECS 90-12787Fujitsu LaboratoriesU.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-92-J-1302National Center for Integrated PhotonicsNational Center for Integrated Photonics TechnologyNational Science Foundation Grant EET 88-15834Joint Services Electronics Program Contract DAAL03-91-C-0001National Science Foundation Fellowship ECS-85-52701U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research (MGH) Contract N00014-91-C-0084U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-91-J-1956National Institutes of Health Grant NIH-5-RO1-GM35459-08Bose CorporationLawrence Livermore National Laboratories Subcontract B160530U.S. Department of Energy Grant DE-FG02-89-ER14012Rockwell International CorporationSpace Exploration AssociatesFuture Energy Applied Technology, Inc

Stretching the IR theoretical spectrum on Irish neutrality: a critical social constructivist framework

In a 2006 International Political Science Review article, entitled "Choosing to Go It Alone: Irish Neutrality in Theoretical and Comparative Perspective," Neal G. Jesse argues that Irish neutrality is best understood through a neoliberal rather than a neorealist international relations theory framework. This article posits an alternative "critical social constructivist" framework for understanding Irish neutrality. The first part of the article considers the differences between neoliberalism and social constructivism and argues why critical social constructivism's emphasis on beliefs, identity, and the agency of the public in foreign policy are key factors explaining Irish neutrality today. Using public opinion data, the second part of the article tests whether national identity, independence, ethnocentrism, attitudes to Northern Ireland, and efficacy are factors driving public support for Irish neutrality. The results show that public attitudes to Irish neutrality are structured along the dimensions of independence and identity, indicating empirical support for a critical social constructivist framework of understanding of Irish neutrality

Oral Abstracts 7: RA ClinicalO37. Long-Term Outcomes of Early RA Patients Initiated with Adalimumab Plus Methotrexate Compared with Methotrexate Alone Following a Targeted Treatment Approach

Background: This analysis assessed, on a group level, whether there is a long-term advantage for early RA patients treated with adalimumab (ADA) + MTX vs those initially treated with placebo (PBO) + MTX who either responded to therapy or added ADA following inadequate response (IR). Methods: OPTIMA was a 78- week, randomized, controlled trial of ADA + MTX vs PBO + MTX in MTX-naïve early (<1 year) RA patients. Therapy was adjusted at week 26: ADA + MTX-responders (R) who achieved DAS28 (CRP) <3.2 at weeks 22 and 26 (Period 1, P1) were re-randomized to withdraw or continue ADA and PBO + MTX-R continued randomized therapy for 52 weeks (P2); IR-patients received open-label (OL) ADA + MTX during P2. This post hoc analysis evaluated the proportion of patients at week 78 with DAS28 (CRP) <3.2, HAQ-DI <0.5, and/or ΔmTSS ≤0.5 by initial treatment. To account for patients who withdrew ADA during P2, an equivalent proportion of R was imputed from ADA + MTX-R patients. Results: At week 26, significantly more patients had low disease activity, normal function, and/or no radiographic progression with ADA + MTX vs PBO + MTX (Table 1). Differences in clinical and functional outcomes disappeared following additional treatment, when PBO + MTX-IR (n = 348/460) switched to OL ADA + MTX. Addition of OL ADA slowed radiographic progression, but more patients who received ADA + MTX from baseline had no radiographic progression at week 78 than patients who received initial PBO + MTX. Conclusions: Early RA patients treated with PBO + MTX achieved comparable long-term clinical and functional outcomes on a group level as those who began ADA + MTX, but only when therapy was optimized by the addition of ADA in PBO + MTX-IR. Still, ADA + MTX therapy conferred a radiographic benefit although the difference did not appear to translate to an additional functional benefit. Disclosures: P.E., AbbVie, Merck, Pfizer, UCB, Roche, BMS—Provided Expert Advice, Undertaken Trials, AbbVie—AbbVie sponsored the study, contributed to its design, and participated in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data, and in the writing, reviewing, and approval of the final version. R.F., AbbVie, Pfizer, Merck, Roche, UCB, Celgene, Amgen, AstraZeneca, BMS, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis—Research Grants, Consultation Fees. S.F., AbbVie—Employee, Stocks. A.K., AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, BMS, Celgene, Centocor-Janssen, Pfizer, Roche, UCB—Research Grants, Consultation Fees. H.K., AbbVie—Employee, Stocks. S.R., AbbVie—Employee, Stocks. J.S., AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, BMS, Celgene, Centocor-Janssen, GlaxoSmithKline, Lilly, Pfizer (Wyeth), MSD (Schering-Plough), Novo-Nordisk, Roche, Sandoz, UCB—Research Grants, Consultation Fees. R.V., AbbVie, BMS, GlaxoSmithKline, Human Genome Sciences, Merck, Pfizer, Roche, UCB Pharma—Consultation Fees, Research Support. Table 1.Week 78 clinical, functional, and radiographic outcomes in patients who received continued ADA + MTX vs those who continued PBO + MTX or added open-label ADA following an inadequate response ADA + MTX, n/N (%)a PBO + MTX, n/N (%)b Outcome Week 26 Week 52 Week 78 Week 26 Week 52 Week 78 DAS28 (CRP) <3.2 246/466 (53) 304/465 (65) 303/465 (65) 139/460 (30)*** 284/460 (62) 300/460 (65) HAQ-DI <0.5 211/466 (45) 220/466 (47) 224/466 (48) 150/460 (33)*** 203/460 (44) 208/460 (45) ΔmTSS ≤0.5 402/462 (87) 379/445 (86) 382/443 (86) 330/459 (72)*** 318/440 (72)*** 318/440 (72)*** DAS28 (CRP) <3.2 + ΔmTSS ≤0.5 216/462 (47) 260/443 (59) 266/443 (60) 112/459 (24)*** 196/440 (45) 211/440 (48)*** DAS28 (CRP) <3.2 + HAQ-DI <0.5 + ΔmTSS ≤0.5 146/462 (32) 168/443 (38) 174/443 (39) 82/459 (18)*** 120/440 (27)*** 135/440 (31)** aIncludes patients from the ADA Continuation (n = 105) and OL ADA Carry On (n = 259) arms, as well as the proportional equivalent number of responders from the ADA Withdrawal arm (n = 102). bIncludes patients from the MTX Continuation (n = 112) and Rescue ADA (n = 348) arms. Last observation carried forward: DAS28 (CRP) and HAQ-DI; Multiple imputations: ΔmTSS. ***P < 0.001 and **iP < 0.01, respectively, for differences between initial treatments from chi-squar

Decoding the massive genome of loblolly pine using haploid DNA and novel assembly strategies

BACKGROUND: The size and complexity of conifer genomes has, until now, prevented full genome sequencing and assembly. The large research community and economic importance of loblolly pine, Pinus taeda L., made it an early candidate for reference sequence determination. RESULTS: We develop a novel strategy to sequence the genome of loblolly pine that combines unique aspects of pine reproductive biology and genome assembly methodology. We use a whole genome shotgun approach relying primarily on next generation sequence generated from a single haploid seed megagametophyte from a loblolly pine tree, 20-1010, that has been used in industrial forest tree breeding. The resulting sequence and assembly was used to generate a draft genome spanning 23.2 Gbp and containing 20.1 Gbp with an N50 scaffold size of 66.9 kbp, making it a significant improvement over available conifer genomes. The long scaffold lengths allow the annotation of 50,172 gene models with intron lengths averaging over 2.7 kbp and sometimes exceeding 100 kbp in length. Analysis of orthologous gene sets identifies gene families that may be unique to conifers. We further characterize and expand the existing repeat library based on the de novo analysis of the repetitive content, estimated to encompass 82% of the genome. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to its value as a resource for researchers and breeders, the loblolly pine genome sequence and assembly reported here demonstrates a novel approach to sequencing the large and complex genomes of this important group of plants that can now be widely applied

Genome-wide association of multiple complex traits in outbred mice by ultra low-coverage sequencing

The authors wish to acknowledge excellent technical assistance from A. Kurioka, L. Swadling, C. de Lara, J. Ussher, R. Townsend, S. Lionikaite, A.S. Lionikiene, R. Wolswinkel and I. van der Made. We would like to thank T.M. Keane and A.G. Doran for their help in annotating variants and adding the FVB/NJ strain to the MGP. We thank the High-Throughput Genomics Group at the Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics and the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute for the generation of the sequencing data. This work was funded by Wellcome Trust grant 090532/Z/09/Z (J.F.). Primary phenotyping of the mice was supported by the Mary Lyon Centre and Mammalian Genetics Unit (Medical Research Council, UK Hub grant G0900747 91070 and Medical Research Council, UK grant MC U142684172). D.A.B. acknowledges support from NIH R01AR056280. The sleep work was supported by the state of Vaud (Switzerland) and the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF 14694 and 136201 to P.F.). The ECG work was supported by the Netherlands CardioVascular Research Initiative (Dutch Heart Foundation, Dutch Federation of University Medical Centres, Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development and the Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences) PREDICT project, InterUniversity Cardiology Institute of the Netherlands (ICIN; 061.02; C.A.R. and C.R.B.). N.C. is supported by the Agency of Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) Graduate Academy. R.W.D. is supported by a grant from the Wellcome Trust (097308/Z/11/Z).Peer reviewedPostprin