The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July–December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July–December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July–December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model

Gammatone Wavelet Cepstral Coefficients for Robust Speech Recognition

We develop noise robust features using Gammatone wavelets derived from the popular Gammatone functions. These wavelets incorporate the characteristics of human peripheral auditory systems, in particular the spatially-varying frequency response of the basilar membrane. We refer to the new features as Gammatone Wavelet Cepstral Coefficients (GWCC). The procedure involved in extracting GWCC from a speech signal is similar to that of the conventional Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) technique, with the difference being in the type of filterbank used. We replace the conventional mel filterbank in MFCC with a Gammatone wavelet filterbank, which we construct using Gammatone wavelets. We also explore the effect of Gammatone filterbank based features (Gammatone Cepstral Coefficients (GCC)) for robust speech recognition. On AURORA 2 database, a comparison of GWCCs and GCCs with MFCCs shows that Gammatone based features yield a better recognition performance at low SNRs

Auditory-motivated Gammatone wavelet transform

The ability of the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to provide good time and frequency localization has made it a popular tool in time-frequency analysis of signals. Wavelets exhibit constant-Q property, which is also possessed by the basilar membrane filters in the peripheral auditory system. The basilar membrane filters or auditory filters are often modeled by a Gammatone function, which provides a good approximation to experimentally determined responses. The filterbank derived from these filters is referred to as a Gammatone filterbank. In general, wavelet analysis can be likened to a filterbank analysis and hence the interesting link between standard wavelet analysis and Gammatone filterbank. However, the Gammatone function does not exactly qualify as a wavelet because its time average is not zero. We show how bona fide wavelets can be constructed out of Gammatone functions. We analyze properties such as admissibility, time-bandwidth product, vanishing moments, which are particularly relevant in the context of wavelets. We also show how the proposed auditory wavelets are produced as the impulse response of a linear, shift-invariant system governed by a linear differential equation with constant coefficients. We propose analog circuit implementations of the proposed CWT. We also show how the Gammatone-derived wavelets can be used for singularity detection and time-frequency analysis of transient signals. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Nonlinear Multi-scale Super-resolution Using Deep Learning

We propose a deep learning architecture capable of performing up to 8 7 single image super-resolution. Our architecture incorporates an adversarial component from the super-resolution generative adversarial networks (SRGANs) and a multi-scale learning component from the multiple scale super-resolution network (MSSRNet), which only together can recover smaller structures inherent in satellite images. To further enhance our performance, we integrate progressive growing and training to our network. This, aided by feed forwarding connections in the network to move along and enrich information from previous inputs, produces super-resolved images at scaling factors of 2, 4, and 8. To ensure and enhance the stability of GANs, we employ Wasserstein GANs (WGANs) during training. Experimentally, we find that our architecture can recover small objects in satellite images during super-resolution whereas previous methods cannot