A munkaerő-piaci előrejelzések nemzetközi gyakorlata: áttekintés a kvantitatív módszerekről és felhasználásukról 12 ország és az Európai Unió előrejelzési tapasztalatai alapján

The study presents a comprehensive overview of labour market forecasting activities, mostly quantitative, based on multi-sector models, in 12 countries and the European Union. The principal aim of this effort is to provide ideas, lessons and benchmarks for similar forecasting exercises in Hungary. After outlining the basic model of quantitative labour market forecasting the paper identifies the technical conditions of model building and model quantification, as well as the characteristic features of organising the forecasting work. This analysis is based on cross-country comparative analysis and on the presentation of examples from the individual countries. In the following section the authors address the paths of improvement in the traditional forecasting model. Here the possibilities of substitution in terms of occupations and qualifications are discussed, and the difficulties of including the generic skills as a new variable in the forecasts. A section is devoted to the analytical tools that can be used after the forecasts are ready, such as the shift-share analysis and the IFLM-indicator that compares forecasted demand and supply in individual occupations or qualification categories. The discussion of estimated future labour market imbalances and the measured accuracy of the forecasts leads the authors to a fundamental issue of labour market forecasts, i.e. whether the results of the calculations can be considered forecasts proper for future developments, or they should be seen simply as well-informed, systematic projections? The second part of the study provides a detailed presentation of forecasting practices in the individual countries

Caesarean delivery and the use of antidepressants

Background The high ratio of caesarean sections (C-sections) is a major public health issue in the developed world; but its implications on maternal mental health are not well understood. Methods We use individual-level administrative panel data from Hungary between 2010 and 2016 to analyze the relationship between caesarean delivery and antidepressant consumption, an objective indicator of mental health. We focus on low-risk deliveries of mothers without subsequent birth in 3 years, and include around 135 000 observations. Results After controlling for medical and socio-economic variables, antidepressant use before delivery is associated with an elevated risk of C-section (adjusted OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.05–1.14) and C-section is associated with a higher probability of antidepressant use within 1–3 years after delivery (e.g. adjusted OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.12–1.30, within 3 years after delivery, among mothers without pre-delivery antidepressant consumption). Our data restriction ensures that the results are not driven by a mechanical impact of decreasing fertility on the continuation of antidepressant use after a C-section. Conclusions The results suggest that C-section is associated with worse mental health over the 1- to 3-year horizon after birth. This relationship is particularly important if a caesarean delivery is not necessary due to medical reasons, and physicians as well as expectant mothers should be made aware of the potential mental health implications of the mode of delivery

Reduced user fees for antibiotics under age 5 in Hungary: Effect on antibiotic use and imbalances in the implementation

OBJECTIVES:In August 2016, new prescription guidelines were introduced in Hungary to reduce the co-payments for antibiotics among children aged 0-4. This study aims at analysing the implementation of this policy and its effect on the use of antibiotics. METHODS:The analysis is based on administrative prescription records between January 2010-February 2018, covering the entire population of Hungary aged 0-7. Spatial autocorrelation indices are calculated and settlement level regression models are estimated to analyse the spatial variation in the application of the new guidelines. The effect of reduced co-payments on antibiotic use is estimated with a difference-in-differences type model: the treatment and control groups are children aged 0-4 and 5-7, respectively; the treatment and control periods are August 2016-February 2018 and January 2010-July 2016, respectively. RESULTS:The new prescription guidelines are more widely applied in settlements with higher per capita income and lower unemployment rate. Adherence to the new guidelines is spatially clustered. A 10-15% decrease in the out-of-pocket costs of antibiotics is estimated to increase the consumption of antibiotics by about 5% (95% CI: 2.63%-7.55%). CONCLUSIONS:In the absence of clear enforcement mechanisms, the adoption of the new prescription guidelines is selective, contradicting the aims of the policy of making antibiotics affordable for the poor children. The results point to the possible role of physicians' information networks in the application of prescription guidelines. The use of antibiotics among children aged 0-4 is responsive to the price subsidy of antibiotics