Assessing the impact of seasonal population fluctuation on regional flood risk management

This paper focuses on the integration of population and environmental models to address the effect of seasonally varying populations on exposure to flood risk. A spatiotemporal population modelling tool, Population24/7, has been combined with LISFLOOD-FP inundation model outputs for a study area centred on St Austell, Cornwall, UK. Results indicate seasonal cycles in populations and their exposure to flood hazard which are not accounted for in traditional population datasets or flood hazard analyses and which provide potential enhancements to current practice

THE LANDSCAPE: A GOOD OF CULTURE, IDENTIFICATION AND RICHNESS

The adoption of a systematic in geography has helped to "revolutionize" and in the same time to complete the notion of landscape that, until the half '900, has mastered the international geographic research. We are passed from definitions of the landscape like complex of the sensible features of a region of landscape like theatre etc. to that of landscape as structured system, where the natural and anthropic component are melt in a system which complexity is given by the inextricability of their relations as seen in a historical perspective. Already L. Gambi, however, in 1964 had adopted a first interpretative approach to the complexity of the landscape, looking no more at the man in the nature, according to Biasutti's point of view, but putting the "man in history" near the nature who, exploiting his kind of life contributes at the constitution of the "Anthropogeographic landscape". The centrality of the history in the processes of complexification of the landscape has been put, most recently, in evidence by Paola Sereno (2001): the landscape is composed of elements that belong to the various processes of territorialization, then at more territorial systems that the history produces, transmit some components that, changing even meaning and function, are reunited in a new system, establish new connections with other elements inside of new processes of territorialization. Not exist however a true "past" of the landscape if not in the whole of the continuous morphogenetic processes that had characterized it. In this perspective the landscape's tutelage not is immediately connected at the tutelage of a cultural, architectonic or monumental good that would be, because the same landscape configure itself as the historical - geographical context that the single object inside it get meaning; a context complex, however, because not only the simple union of elements, but the architecture of the nexus that tie them. The landscape configure itself as a whole of signs imprinted by the community to the own territory; it become then expression of belonging that consents to the men of recognize and identify themselves in the "places". Every landscape then has strong individualizing characters that consent the emersion of the deep roots of the realities that constitute the identity of the human groups that in time have established themselves in the territory. (Mautone, 1999). It is uncovered then an ambivalence that, according to M.C. Zerbi (1999) constitute the very essence of the complexity of the notion of landscape: from a side the landscape as visible, external, objective reality, that the observer can see, on the other side the mental image that the observer build for himself, the subjective dimension that is more strictly connect to the notion of cultural landscape. In particular Zerbi see how in the contemporary geographic research, the notion of landscape is seen in three different aspects that presuppose various uses. The first aspect concern The notion of cultural landscape, to whom geography has dedicate much time, as landscape modified by human work. Is derived a large meaning of this term, because the human work -directly or indirectly- manifests itself in a great number of landscapes. Is, however, according Zerbi, a good starting point to pick the past and present dynamics through an approach at the same time ecologic and historical - geographical. When then some elements of the cultural landscape stand out which are particularly appraised or are perceived as menaced in their own existence, it comes out the concept of landscape as patrimonial heritage. Is a more selective concept than previous, which concerns a reality full of values: archaeological sites, traditional agrarian cultivations, ancient houses become a heritage to protect and maintain more than to hand down. The historical gardens and parks too find place in this concept, becoming a planning object. There is even, according M.C. Zerbi, a third notion of cultural landscape that, this time, consider the landscape not only a objective reality, but a subjective interpretation of elements held in the ambient to which various human groups attribute different meanings and values. 228 Landscape then as way to see that surrounds us. At first sight it could seem an abstract approach, less responding to reality; is, instead, an approach that has validity even on the operative plane when is needed to know the values of the insiders, to make them aware of the planning of their complex of life

Using workplace population statistics to understand retail store performance

We explore the value of recently released workplace geographies and accompanying census-based workplace zone statistics (WZS) and an associated classification of workplace zones (COWZ). We consider how these data could support retailers in their operational and strategic decision making, including the evaluation of retail demand and retail store performance in localities where trade is driven by non-residential demand. In collaboration with major UK grocery retailer ‘The Co-operative Group’ we explore the relationship between workplace population composition and store trading characteristics using a series of case study stores within Inner London. We use empirical store trading data to identify store and product category level temporal sales fluctuations attributable to workplace populations. We also use census-derived flow data to identify the spatial origins of workplace population inflow. We identify that store performance exhibits characteristics attributable to demand driven by these populations. We conclude that workplace population geographies, WZS and the COWZ afford considerable potential for understanding drivers of store performance, observed store trading patterns and evaluation of retail store performance. We suggest that the next step is to build these populations and their micro geography spatial and temporal characteristics into predictive models and evaluate their potential for store performance evaluation and location-based store and network decision making within this sector

Visitor expenditure estimation for grocery store location planning: a case study of Cornwall

Visitor expenditure is an important driver of demand in many local economies, supporting a range of services and facilities which may not be viable based solely on residential demand. In areas where self-catering accommodation is prevalent visitor demand makes up a considerable proportion of sales and revenue within grocery stores, yet this form of visitor consumption is commonly overlooked in supply and demand-side estimates of visitor spend. As such, store location planning in tourist resorts, decisions about local service provision and the local economic impacts of tourism are based on very limited demand-side estimates of visitor spend. Using Cornwall, South West England as a study area, we outline a methodology and data sources to estimate small-area visitor grocery spend. We use self-catering accommodation provision, utilisation and visitor expenditure rates as key factors driving visitor spend. We identify that the use of visitor accommodation accounts for the spatial and temporal complexities of visitor demand that may be overlooked when using alternative approaches, such as the up-scaling of residential demand. Using a spatial interaction model, we demonstrate that our expenditure estimates can be used to generate store level revenue estimation within tourist resorts, and we make a number of recommendations for service provision and store location planning in these areas

Evaluating the potential of agent-based modelling to capture consumer grocery retail store choice behaviours

Evolving consumer behaviours with regards to store and channel choice, shopping frequency, shopping mission and spending heighten the need for robust spatial modelling tools for use within retail analytics. In this paper, we report on collaboration with a major UK grocery retailer to assess the feasibility of modelling consumer store choice behaviours at the level of the individual consumer. We benefit from very rare access to our collaborating retailers’ customer data which we use to develop a proof-of-concept agent-based model (ABM). Utilising our collaborating retailers’ loyalty card database, we extract key consumer behaviours in relation to shopping frequency, mission, store choice and spending. We build these observed behaviours into our ABM, based on a simplified urban environment, calibrated and validated against observed consumer data. Our ABM is able to capture key spatiotemporal drivers of consumer store choice behaviour at the individual level. Our findings could afford new opportunities for spatial modelling within the retail sector, enabling the complexity of consumer behaviours to be captured and simulated within a novel modelling framework. We reflect on further model development required for use in a commercial context for location-based decision-making

Introduction to Spacial Interaction Modelling

This online resource introduces spatial interaction modelling / spatial interaction models (SIMs), statistical models used to predict origin-destination flows. They are applied within geography, planning, transportation and the social sciences to predict interactions or flows such as those related to commuting or migration. They are also widely used across the commercial sector, for example to model flows of consumers between home and retail centres, with broad applications in commercial decision making and policy evaluation. This video and accompanying resources introduces the theoretical components of a SIM, outlines the family of spatial interaction models (for different types of application areas) and illustrates some of their common uses. For more information visit: https://www.ncrm.ac.uk/resources/online/spatial_interaction_modelling

Exploring Transport Consumption-Based Emissions: Spatial Patterns, Social Factors, Well-Being, and Policy Implications

Recent years have seen an increased interest in demand-side mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the oftentimes spatial nature of emissions research, links to social factors and infrastructure are often not analysed geographically. To reach substantial and lasting emission reductions without further disadvantaging vulnerable populations, the design of effective mitigation policies on the local level requires considerations of spatial and social inequalities as well as the context of well-being. Consequently, we explore spatial variations in the links between consumption-based transport emissions with infrastructural factors, such as workplace distance and public transport density, and with risk-factors of transport poverty, including income, age, ethnicity, mobility constraints in London. We find that linear models report significant spatial autocorrelation at p ≤ 0.01 in their model residuals, indicating spatial dependency. Using geographically weighted regression models improves model fits by an adjusted R2 value of 9–70% compared to linear models. Here, modelling flight emissions generally sees the lowest improvements, while those models modelling emissions from cars and vans see the highest improvements in model fit. We conclude that using geographically weighted regression to assess the links between social factors and emissions offers insights which global, linear models overlook. Moreover, this type of analysis enables an assessment of where, spatially, different types of policy interventions may be most effective in reducing not only emissions, but transport poverty risks. Patterns of spatial heterogeneity and policy implications of this research are discussed

GIS and the Social Sciences:Theory and Applications

GIS and the Social Sciences offers a uniquely social science approach on the theory and application of GIS with a range of modern examples. It explores how human geography can engage with a variety of important policy issues through linking together GIS and spatial analysis, and demonstrates the importance of applied GIS and spatial analysis for solving real-world problems in both the public and private sector