Implied Default Probabilities and Default Recovery Ratios: An Analysis of Argentine Eurobonds 2000-2002

This paper calculates implied recovery rates and implied default probabilities in a risk neutral setting for Argentine US-Dollar Eurobonds during the Argentine crisis from 2000 to 2002. In a model which is related to Jarrow (1995), the hazard rate is modelled as risk neutral probability using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that implied probabilities roughly take five levels, allowing to cut the time frame analyzed into five periods. The jumps between the levels are associated with rating cuts in most cases. In 2000, the estimated location parameter of the Gumbel distribution makes a default event appear most probable after four to five years. Estimated recovery ratios range from above 50% in the beginning to an average of 25% in the endSovereign default, credit risk

Propagation of changes in demand through international trade: Case study China

China's economy, the second largest in the world, is undergoing a fundamental transition. Its transition from a strong focus on investment and exports towards a larger share of consumption could have important ramifications for China's trading partners. Using China as a case study, this paper deploys a sectoral input-output (IO) analysis to take into account higher-round spillovers from a reduction in import demand or a shift in the composition of the Chinese economy. This approach demonstrates strong indirect effects that exceed by far the initial shock from direct trade links, reflecting China's integration into a closely knit global value chain. The result suggests that the ongoing transition in China will have important effects on the global economy

Influx of refugees: Integration as a key challenge

In 2015 and 2016, more than one million refugees arrived in Germany. While granting these migrants access to the country is an expression of humanitarian responsibility, their subsequent integration into the labor market is primarily a challenge for economic policy. For a wide range of outcomes, from unemployment to the stability of social security systems, successful labour market integration holds the key to reducing long run costs from the refugee influx. This paper outlines the implications for the provision of education and training, as well as for labour market and housing policy. They comprise a sustained effort to enhance the qualifications and skills of recognised asylum applicants, reforms geared to incentivising residential construction, and measures to improve labour market flexibility and (self-)employment opportunities

Market Response to Policy Initiatives during the Global Financial Crisis

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic and financial sector policy announcements in the United States, the United Kingdom, the euro area, and Japan during the recent crisis on interbank credit and liquidity risk premia. Announcements of interest rate cuts, liquidity support, liability guarantees, and recapitalization were associated with a reduction of interbank risk premia, albeit to a different degree during the subprime and global phases of the crisis. Decisions not to reduce interest rates and bail out individual banks in an ad hoc manner had adverse repercussions, both domestically and abroad. The results are robust to controlling for the surprise content of announcements and using alternative measures of financial distress.

Kosten und Chancen der Migration

Die aktuelle Flüchtlingskrise stellt die Europäische Union vor eine enorme Herausforderung. Vor allem Deutschland erlebt zurzeit einen gewaltigen Zustrom von Menschen, die sich Sicherheit und eine wirtschaftliche Perspektive wünschen. Darunter befinden sich auch immer mehr Flüchtlinge: 2015 sind schätzungsweise eine Million Flüchtlinge nach Deutschland gekommen. Und der Flüchtlingsstrom hält nach wie vor an. Kann die Wirtschaft die Chancen der Zuwanderung nutzen? Was kostet die Integration? Diese Fragen diskutieren hier die Präsidenten der führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute sowie weitere Migrationsexperten

Towards a More Resilient Euro Area. Ideas from the 'Future Europe' Forum. CEPS Paperback, 18 June 2018

Much progress has been made in improving resilience of the single currency since the beginning of the crisis. But many important issues remain to be tackled. The leaders of euro-area member states are expected to use the European Union Summit on 28-29 June 2018 to take preliminary decisions about which additional reforms to pursue. The run-up to this meeting saw a lively debate involving economists and policymakers, albeit against a backdrop of rising Euroscepticism among and waning trust between European partners. ESMT and the German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE) initiated the ‘Future Europe’ forum in the summer of 2017, aiming to bring together a high-level group of economists to discuss economically sensible, legally sound, and politically feasible concepts that deserved to be taken forward. By offering a forum for discussion, we hoped to foster constructive dialogue. They chose an innovative video-conference format to bring experts together face to face without them having to leave their desks (or living rooms). Some 30 economists took part in a dozen such virtual meetings, and their contributions culminated in a publication, brought out jointly by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), ESMT and the GCEE. The ebookTowards a More Resilient Euro Area: Ideas from the ‘Future Europe’ forum gathers summaries of these economists’ proposals and the discussions they sparked. The main aim was not to produce a variant of the jointly-authored academic paper, but to foster a lively debate between economists who – as one participant put it – “agree somewhat, but not too much”. The publication as a result combines essays outlining an individual author’s thoughts with summaries of the informed, impassioned, and always respectful discussions during each forum. While each contribution can only be attributed to the respective author, each idea and thought is a valuable input that deserves to be considered by European governments as they set about the next euro-area reforms

Regional Monitoring of Capital Flows and Coordination of Financial Regulation: Stakes and Options for Asia

The ongoing global economic crisis has punished Asian economies severely, despite the fact that its origins derive from outside the region. The global economic crisis was transmitted through real and financial channels, underscoring how vulnerable the region is to external shocks. This paper explores the microeconomic origins of the financial crisis and endeavors to ascertain how crises might be mitigated in the future through better regulation, supervision, and institution-building. Moreover, it makes the case for closer economic cooperation in order to internalize key externalities associated with modern global finance. This cooperation, in turn, should take place at the appropriate level, with incentives for cooperation at the global, regional, and subregional levels. It explores the potential for the creation of an Asian Financial Stability Board and deepening other initiatives in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+3 and ASEAN forums. However, it stresses that the most important financial reforms in Asia will need to take place at the national level

Macro News and Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro Area

This paper analyses the effects of newspaper coverage of macro news on the spread between the yield on the 10-year German Bund and on sovereign bonds in eight countries belonging to the euro area (Belgium, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) using daily data for the period 1999-2014. The econometric analysis is based on the estimation of a VAR-GARCH model. The results can be summarized as follows. Negative news have significant positive effects on yield spreads in all PIIGS countries but Italy before September 2008; markets respond more to negative news, and their reaction has increased during the recent financial crisis. News volatility has a significant impact on yield spread volatility, the effects being more pronounced in the case of negative news and bigger in the most recent crisis period, especially in the PIIGS countries. Further, the conditional correlations between yield spreads and negative news are significant and positive, and their increase in absolute value during the financial crisis (especially in the PIIGS countries) indicates a higher sensitivity of yield spreads to negative releases