A Generative Deep Learning Approach to Stochastic Downscaling of Precipitation Forecasts

Despite continuous improvements, precipitation forecasts are still not as accurate and reliable as those of other meteorological variables. A major contributing factor to this is that several key processes affecting precipitation distribution and intensity occur below the resolved scale of global weather models. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been demonstrated by the computer vision community to be successful at super-resolution problems, i.e., learning to add fine-scale structure to coarse images. Leinonen et al. (2020) previously applied a GAN to produce ensembles of reconstructed high-resolution atmospheric fields, given coarsened input data. In this paper, we demonstrate this approach can be extended to the more challenging problem of increasing the accuracy and resolution of comparatively low-resolution input from a weather forecasting model, using high-resolution radar measurements as a "ground truth". The neural network must learn to add resolution and structure whilst accounting for non-negligible forecast error. We show that GANs and VAE-GANs can match the statistical properties of state-of-the-art pointwise post-processing methods whilst creating high-resolution, spatially coherent precipitation maps. Our model compares favourably to the best existing downscaling methods in both pixel-wise and pooled CRPS scores, power spectrum information and rank histograms (used to assess calibration). We test our models and show that they perform in a range of scenarios, including heavy rainfall.Comment: Submitted to JAMES 4/4/2

OH PLIF Visualization of the UVa Supersonic Combustion Experiment: Configuration A

Hydroxyl radical (OH) planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) measurements were performed in the University of Virginia s dual-mode scramjet experiment. The test section was set up in configuration A, which includes a Mach 2 nozzle, combustor, and extender section. Hydrogen fuel was injected through an unswept compression ramp at two different equivalence ratios. Through the translation of the optical system and the use of two separate camera views, the entire optical range of the combustor was accessed. Single-shot, average, and standard deviation images of the OH PLIF signal are presented at several streamwise locations. The results show the development of a highly turbulent flame structure and provide an experimental database to be used for numerical model assessment

Improved Analysis of GW150914 Using a Fully Spin-Precessing Waveform Model

This paper presents updated estimates of source parameters for GW150914, a binary black-hole coalescence event detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) in 2015 [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 061102 (2016).]. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] presented parameter estimation of the source using a 13-dimensional, phenomenological precessing-spin model (precessing IMRPhenom) and an 11-dimensional nonprecessing effective-one-body (EOB) model calibrated to numerical-relativity simulations, which forces spin alignment (nonprecessing EOBNR). Here, we present new results that include a 15-dimensional precessing-spin waveform model (precessing EOBNR) developed within the EOB formalism. We find good agreement with the parameters estimated previously [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).], and we quote updated component masses of 35+5−3M⊙ and 30+3−4M ⊙ (where errors correspond to 90% symmetric credible intervals). We also present slightly tighter constraints on the dimensionless spin magnitudes of the two black holes, with a primary spin estimate < 0.65 and a secondary spin estimate < 0.75 at 90% probability. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] estimated the systematic parameter-extraction errors due to waveform-model uncertainty by combining the posterior probability densities of precessing IMRPhenom and nonprecessing EOBNR. Here, we find that the two precessing-spin models are in closer agreement, suggesting that these systematic errors are smaller than previously quoted

OH PLIF Visualization of the UVa Supersonic Combustion Experiment: Configuration C

Non-intrusive hydroxyl radical (OH) planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) measurements were obtained in configuration C of the University of Virginia supersonic combustion experiment. The combustion of hydrogen fuel injected through an unswept compression ramp into a supersonic cross-flow was imaged over a range of streamwise positions. Images were corrected for optical distortion, variations in the laser sheet profile, and different camera views. Results indicate an effect of fuel equivalence ratio on combustion zone shape and local turbulence length scale. The streamwise location of the reaction zone relative to the fuel injector was also found to be sensitive to the fuel equivalence ratio. The flow boundary conditions in the combustor section, which are sensitive to the fuel flow rate, are believed to have caused this effect. A combination of laser absorption and radiative trapping effects are proposed to have caused asymmetry observed in the images. The results complement previously published OH PLIF data obtained for configuration A along with other non-intrusive measurements to form a database for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model validation

Predicting Landscape-Genetic Consequences of Habitat Loss, Fragmentation and Mobility for Multiple Species of Woodland Birds

Inference concerning the impact of habitat fragmentation on dispersal and gene flow is a key theme in landscape genetics. Recently, the ability of established approaches to identify reliably the differential effects of landscape structure (e.g. land-cover composition, remnant vegetation configuration and extent) on the mobility of organisms has been questioned. More explicit methods of predicting and testing for such effects must move beyond post hoc explanations for single landscapes and species. Here, we document a process for making a priori predictions, using existing spatial and ecological data and expert opinion, of the effects of landscape structure on genetic structure of multiple species across replicated landscape blocks. We compare the results of two common methods for estimating the influence of landscape structure on effective distance: least-cost path analysis and isolation-by-resistance. We present a series of alternative models of genetic connectivity in the study area, represented by different landscape resistance surfaces for calculating effective distance, and identify appropriate null models. The process is applied to ten species of sympatric woodland-dependant birds. For each species, we rank a priori the expectation of fit of genetic response to the models according to the expected response of birds to loss of structural connectivity and landscape-scale tree-cover. These rankings (our hypotheses) are presented for testing with empirical genetic data in a subsequent contribution. We propose that this replicated landscape, multi-species approach offers a robust method for identifying the likely effects of landscape fragmentation on dispersal

GW190521: A Binary Black Hole Merger with a Total Mass of 150 M

On May 21, 2019 at 03:02:29 UTC Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observed a short duration gravitational-wave signal, GW190521, with a three-detector network signal-to-noise ratio of 14.7, and an estimated false-alarm rate of 1 in 4900 yr using a search sensitive to generic transients. If GW190521 is from a quasicircular binary inspiral, then the detected signal is consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses of 85+21-14 M⊙ and 66+17-18 M⊙ (90% credible intervals). We infer that the primary black hole mass lies within the gap produced by (pulsational) pair-instability supernova processes, with only a 0.32% probability of being below 65 M⊙. We calculate the mass of the remnant to be 142+28-16 M⊙, which can be considered an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH). The luminosity distance of the source is 5.3+2.4-2.6 Gpc, corresponding to a redshift of 0.82+0.28-0.34 . The inferred rate of mergers similar to GW190521 is 0.13+0.30-0.11 Gpc-3 yr-1

Gravitational-wave Constraints on the Equatorial Ellipticity of Millisecond Pulsars

We present a search for continuous gravitational waves from five radio pulsars, comprising three recycled pulsars (PSR J0437−4715, PSR J0711−6830, and PSR J0737−3039A) and two young pulsars: the Crab pulsar (J0534+2200) and the Vela pulsar (J0835−4510). We use data from the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Virgo combined with data from their first and second observing runs. For the first time, we are able to match (for PSR J0437−4715) or surpass (for PSR J0711−6830) the indirect limits on gravitational-wave emission from recycled pulsars inferred from their observed spin-downs, and constrain their equatorial ellipticities to be less than 10−8. For each of the five pulsars, we perform targeted searches that assume a tight coupling between the gravitational-wave and electromagnetic signal phase evolution. We also present constraints on PSR J0711−6830, the Crab pulsar, and the Vela pulsar from a search that relaxes this assumption, allowing the gravitational-wave signal to vary from the electromagnetic expectation within a narrow band of frequencies and frequency derivatives