Social Influence and Decision-Making: Evaluating Agent Networks in Village Responses to Change in Freshwater

This paper presents a model, using concepts from artificial neural networks, that explains how small rural communities make decisions that affect access to potable freshwater. Field observations indicate that social relationships as well as individual goals and perceptions of decision makers have a strong influence on decisions that are made by community councils. Our work identifies three types of agents, which we designate as alpha, beta, and gamma agents. We address how gamma agents affect decisions made by community councils in passing resolutions that benefit a village\'s collective access to clean freshwater. The model, which we call the Agent Types Model (ATM), demonstrates the effects of social interactions, corporate influence, and agent-specific factors that determine choices for agents. Data from two different villages in rural Alaska and several parameter sensitivity tests are applied to the model. Results demonstrate that minimizing the social significance and agent-specific factors affecting gamma agents\' negative compliance increases the likelihood that communities adopt measures promoting potable freshwater access. The significance of this work demonstrates which types of communities are potentially more socially vulnerable or resilient to social-ecological change affecting water supplies.Agent-Based Modeling, Artificial Neural Network, Social Network, Social Influence, Resilience, Freshwater

An Alternative Futures Approach to Green Infrastructure Planning for an Increasing Population

In 2017, the U.S. Census Bureau announced Idaho to be the fastest growing state by population in the country. As these trends continue, this growth can have various impacts on socio-ecological systems such as increased development, pressure exerted on agricultural production, and increased effects of urban stream syndrome. Various scenarios, driven by stakeholders, can help effectively guide the designs of our green infrastructure networks. This project evokes stakeholder-defined key issues addressed within a National Science Foundation (NSF) funded project in Idaho’s Magic Valley. Innovations at the Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water Systems (INFEWS) is an interdisciplinary research initiative seeking to address issues concerning drought, water demand, water quality, and food security by using a stakeholder-driven alternative futures framework (Steinitz 2012). Researchers within the project seek to operationalize stakeholder-driven assumptions for various scenarios utilizing the planning and suitability of effective Best Management Practices (BMPs) for the Magic Valley in Idaho. The project will utilize an alternative futures methodology to interpret and represent rural and urban green infrastructure interventions at various locations within the watershed. This approach has the potential to operate at various scales and, through this project, we seek to construct the narrative at both the landscape and the site scale. The results aim to provide policy makers, planners, developers, and landscape architects about siting various BMP types through a framework for planning and design. These outputs will also depict modeled landscape change via various scenario solutions. The stakeholder group will substantiate plausible solutions and scenarios for the Valley, which will guide the green infrastructure network. Once validated, we will focus on the siting of three different structural BMP networks to address water quality, water quantity, soil health, and inclusion of public green space

Sustainable Agriculture for Alaska and the Circumpolar North: Part I. Development and Status of Northern Agriculture and Food Security

Alaska is food insecure, importing the vast majority of its agricultural products and commodities and maintaining a minimal year-round food supply. Much of the circumpolar North, with some notable exceptions, is also food insecure and similarly reliant on foods imported from outside regions. The stark differences in food policies, food security, and overall production that exist between individual countries and regions of the circumpolar North are likely due to variability in their physical and social environments, their varying agrarian histories (e.g., Old World vs. New World), and their different first-hand experiences with food insecurity, often during wartime. Alaska’s agricultural history is unique, having progressed through periods of exploration and expansion and having experienced both success and failure. Agriculture exists today in Alaska as an underdeveloped natural resource – based industry that has been shaped by historical events and developmental processes and continually influenced by a host of environmental and socioeconomic factors. Continued interaction between stakeholders, agencies, and others will help the industry to progress to the point of meeting increasing food demands and improving food security.L’Alaska est aux prises avec l’insécurité alimentaire en ce sens que l’État importe la grande majorité de ses produits et marchandises agricoles et qu’il maintient un approvisionnement alimentaire minime à l’année. Malgré quelques exceptions remarquables, une grande partie du Nord circumpolaire souffre d’insécurité alimentaire et dépend de produits alimen­taires importés d’autres régions. Les importantes différences qui existent en matière de politiques alimentaires, d’insécurité alimentaire et de production générale entre les pays et les régions du Nord circumpolaire sont vraisemblablement attribuables aux divers environnements physiques et sociaux, à leur histoire agraire variée (celle de l’Ancien Monde par opposition à celle du Nouveau Monde) et à leurs différentes expériences directes en matière d’insécurité alimentaire, plus particulièrement en temps de guerre. L’histoire agricole de l’Alaska est unique, ayant passé par des périodes d’exploration et d’expansion, et connu tant des réussites que des échecs. De nos jours, l’agriculture en Alaska est une industrie sous-développée de ressources naturelles qui a été façonnée par des événements historiques et des processus développementaux, continuellement influencée par une panoplie de facteurs environnementaux et socioéconomiques. Les efforts collectifs déployés par les parties prenantes, les organismes et d’autres parties aideront cette industrie à progresser au point de pouvoir répondre à la demande croissante de nourriture et d’améliorer la sécurité alimentaire

Sustainable Agriculture for Alaska and the Circumpolar North: Part III. Meeting the Challenges of High-Latitude Farming

Agriculture is a severely underdeveloped industry in Alaska and throughout most of the Subarctic. Growers and entrepreneurs must overcome a diverse set of challenges to achieve greater sustainability in northern communities where resilience is threatened by food insecurity and challenges to northern agriculture have limited the industry. However, several field-based or social policy solutions to problems of high-latitude agriculture have been proposed or are being put into practice. Field-based solutions include the use of special infrastructure or farm management strategies to extend the short growing season, improve soil quality, integrate appropriate pest and irrigation management practices, and further develop the livestock sector. Social and policy solutions are resolutions or decisions reached by stakeholders and government, often through cooperative interaction and discussion. These solutions stem from meaningful discussion and decision making among community members, organizations, agencies, and legislators. Social and policy solutions for Alaska include addressing the high costs of land and the preservation of agricultural lands; improved markets and market strategies; more appropriate funding for research, education and infrastructure; and other integrative or cooperative efforts. Collectively, these solutions will work to improve the outlook for sustainable agriculture in Alaska.En Alaska et dans une grande partie des régions subarctiques, l’agriculture est une industrie extrêmement sous-développée. Les producteurs et les entrepreneurs doivent surmonter un ensemble de défis variés pour donner lieu à une plus grande durabilité dans les collectivités nordiques, là où la résilience est menacée par l’insécurité alimentaire et où les défis caractérisant l’agriculture nordique imposent des restrictions à l’industrie. Cependant, plusieurs solutions apportées sur le terrain ou par le biais de politiques sociales vis-à-vis des problèmes touchant l’agriculture en haute latitude ont été proposées ou sont en train d’être mises en pratique. Parmi les solutions apportées sur le terrain, notons le recours à une infrastructure particulière ou à des stratégies de gestion agricole visant à prolonger la courte saison de croissance, à améliorer la qualité du sol, à intégrer des méthodes de gestion de l’irrigation et des organismes nuisibles, et à mettre davantage l’accent sur le secteur de l’élevage du bétail. Les solutions en matière de politiques sociales prennent la forme de résolutions ou de décisions prises par les parties prenantes et le gouvernement, souvent en collaboration et à la lumière de discussions. Ces solutions découlent de discussions et de prises de décisions importantes entre les membres des collectivités, les organisations, les agences et les législateurs. Les solutions de politiques sociales de l’Alaska portent notamment sur le coût élevé de la terre et la conservation des terres agricoles, sur l’amélioration des marchés et des stratégies de commercialisation, sur la nécessité d’obtenir des sources de financement plus adéquates pour la recherche, l’éducation et l’infrastructure, ainsi que sur d’autres efforts d’intégration et de coopération. Ensemble, ces solutions permettront d’améliorer la conjoncture de l’agriculture durable en Alaska

Sustainable Agriculture for Alaska and the Circumpolar North: Part II. Environmental, Geophysical, Biological and Socioeconomic Challenges

Local agriculture, food security and food supply are limited in Alaska, as well as in much of the circumpolar North. These limitations stem from a suite of challenges that have never been well characterized, categorized, or wholly defined. We identify these challenges as being environmental, geophysical, biological, or socioeconomic in nature, noting that some challenges are interrelated. Additionally, Alaska is expansive, and growing conditions are highly variable across different regions and microclimates of the state. Environmental challenges to Alaskan agriculture are generally linked to high latitude and include strong seasonality, a short growing season, cold temperatures, and unpredictable frosts. Geophysical challenges are characterized by a high percentage of soils that are wet and cold or low in natural fertility. Biological challenges include cultivar adaptability and selection; the control of various pests, weeds, and diseases; and decreased microbial activity in cold soils, which can allow pesticides to linger and slow mineralization of organic fertilizers. Socioeconomic challenges to farming in Alaska are especially limiting and may categorically represent the strongest hindrances to agriculture. They often overlap or interact with many of the identified agro-ecological and biogeographic challenges. Major socioeconomic issues can be a relatively low financial incentive or reward for farmers; inconsistent or limited markets; the high cost of land, infrastructure, and inputs; zoning challenges; a lack of cooperatives; and for rural farmers, time conflicts with more traditional means of subsistence food acquisition. These challenges collectively represent factors that limit agriculture in Alaska, and they provide a basis and justification for developing more sustainable solutions. agriculture; Alaska; challenges; climate; circumpolar; farming; soils; subarctic; sustainable; socioeconomicEn Alaska, l’agriculture locale, la sécurité alimentaire et les approvisionnements en vivres sont limités. C’est également le cas d’une grande partie du Nord circumpolaire. Ces limitations découlent d’un ensemble de défis qui n’ont jamais été bien caractérisés, catégorisés ou entièrement définis. Nous estimons que ces défis sont d’ordre environnemental, géophysique, biologique ou socioéconomique, et que certains des défis sont interreliés. De plus, l’Alaska est d’une grande étendue, et les conditions de croissance varient énormément d’une région à l’autre et d’un microclimat à l’autre de l’État. De manière générale, les défis environnementaux inhérents à l’agriculture alaskienne ont trait à la haute latitude, ce qui comprend une importante saisonnalité, une courte saison de croissance, des températures froides et des gelées imprévisibles. Pour leur part, les défis géophysiques sont caractérisés par un fort pourcentage de sols humides et froids, ou encore, de sols dont la fertilité naturelle est faible, puis les défis d’ordre biologique ont trait à l’adaptabilité et à la sélection des cultivars, à la lutte contre divers organismes nuisibles, les mauvaises herbes et les maladies, ainsi qu’à une activité microbienne réduite dans les sols froids, ce qui permet aux pesticides de rester plus longtemps et ralentit la minéralisation des engrais organiques. Quant aux défis de nature socioéconomique, ils imposent des restrictions particulièrement fortes en Alaska, au point où ils pourraient même catégoriquement représenter le plus grand obstacle à l’agriculture. Dans bien des cas, les défis se chevauchent ou ont une action réciproque sur un grand nombre d’enjeux agroécologiques et biogéographiques. De plus, les grands enjeux socioéconomiques peuvent prendre la forme de récompenses financières relativement faibles pour les agriculteurs, de marchés irréguliers ou limités, du coût élevé de la terre, des infrastructures et des intrants, d’obstacles inhérents au zonage, d’un manqué de coopératives et, dans le cas des agriculteurs ruraux, de conflits d’emploi du temps avec les moyens de subsistance plus traditionnels d’acquisition de la nourriture. Collectivement, ces défis représentent les facteurs qui imposent des restrictions à l’agriculture en Alaska, et ils constituent les fondements et la justification nécessaires au développement de solutions plus durables

Cycling Phosphorus and Nitrogen through Cropping Systems in an Intensive Dairy Production Region

As pressure on the dairy industry to reduce its environmental impact increases, efficient recycling of manure nutrients through local cropping systems becomes crucial. The aim of this study was to calculate annual nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) budgets in six counties located in the Magic Valley, Idaho and estimate what distance manure would need to be transported to be in balance with crop nutrient demand given current dairy cattle populations and cropping systems. Our analysis suggests that crop N needs will not be met solely by manure, and synthetic fertilizer will need to be applied. However, to balance P with crop production, manure would need to be transported a minimum of 12.9 km from dairies and would have to replace synthetic fertilizer P on 91% of regional cropland. Education of producers and technical specialists would be necessary to improve the management of manure use in regional cropping systems. Technical solutions such as alternative diets for cattle and nutrient capture from manure streams will also likely be necessary to bring regional P into balance to protect environmental quality and improve the sustainability of the regional dairy industry

“I know it when I see it”: Identifying ocean wilderness using a photo-based survey approach

“Wilderness” is identified and defined, in large part, as places perceived by people as possessing characteristic qualities and attributes such as remoteness, providing opportunities for solitude, and where the influence of man is not readily apparent. It has been suggested that “wilderness is what people think it is.” To better understand how this idea of wilderness can be most appropriately applied to ocean and coastal waters, a photo-based online survey was conducted, targeting a sample of protected area resource managers and scientists. The survey results suggested that the respondents overwhelmingly and strongly perceived coastal waters, and particularly waters adjacent to designated coastal wilderness areas, as “wilderness.” Offshore areas were also perceived as possessing value as potential wilderness, but somewhat less often than places located near the coast. Keywords: Wilderness, Perception, Ocean and coastal waters, Photo-based surve

Monitoring Land Use: Capturing Change through an Information Fusion Approach

Social and environmental factors affecting land use change are among the most significant drivers transforming the planet. Such change has been and continues to be monitored through the use of satellite imagery, aerial photography, and technical reports. While these monitoring tools are useful in observing the empirical results of land use change and issues of sustainability, the data they provide are often not useful in capturing the fundamental policies, social drivers, and unseen factors that shape how landscapes are transformed. In addition, some monitoring approaches can be prohibitively expensive and too slow in providing useful data at a timescale in which data are needed. This paper argues that techniques using information fusion and conducting assessments of continuous data feeds can be beneficial for monitoring primary social and ecological mechanisms affecting how geographic settings are changed over different time scales. We present a computational approach that couples open source tools in order to conduct an analysis of text data, helping to determine relevant events and trends. To demonstrate the approach, we discuss a case study that integrates varied newspapers from two Midwest states in the United States, Iowa and Nebraska, showing how potentially significant issues and events can be captured. Although the approach we present is useful for monitoring current web-based data streams, we argue that such a method should ultimately be integrated closely with less managed systems and modeling techniques to enhance not only land use monitoring but also to better forecast and understand landscape change.monitoring; land use; information fusion; social-ecological; data mining; modeling

Cycling Phosphorus and Nitrogen through Cropping Systems in an Intensive Dairy Production Region

As pressure on the dairy industry to reduce its environmental impact increases, efficient recycling of manure nutrients through local cropping systems becomes crucial. The aim of this study was to calculate annual nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) budgets in six counties located in the Magic Valley, Idaho and estimate what distance manure would need to be transported to be in balance with crop nutrient demand given current dairy cattle populations and cropping systems. Our analysis suggests that crop N needs will not be met solely by manure, and synthetic fertilizer will need to be applied. However, to balance P with crop production, manure would need to be transported a minimum of 12.9 km from dairies and would have to replace synthetic fertilizer P on 91% of regional cropland. Education of producers and technical specialists would be necessary to improve the management of manure use in regional cropping systems. Technical solutions such as alternative diets for cattle and nutrient capture from manure streams will also likely be necessary to bring regional P into balance to protect environmental quality and improve the sustainability of the regional dairy industry