Saving Shortfalls and Delayed Retirement

Prior research has suggested that many older Americans have not saved enough to maintain consumption levels in old age. One way older persons might respond to inadequate savings would be to extend their worklives by delaying retirement. This paper examines evidence on this matter using the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative panel survey of people age 51-61 in 1992 followed for several years in a panel. We use the data to project household retirement assets and to determine how much more saving would be needed to preserve post-retirement consumption levels. Our research then examines the links between derived saving shortfall measures and delayed retirement patterns. Among nonmarried persons, there is evidence that larger shortfalls do produce delayed retirement, though the effect is not quantitatively large. For married couples, pre-retirement wealth shortfalls do not appear to be significantly associated with delayed retirement. Evidently couples have other means of handling saving shortfalls.

Geoid undulations and gravity anomalies over the Aral Sea, the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea from a combined GEOS-3/SEASAT/GEOSAT altimeter data set

Satellite-based altimetric data taken by GOES-3, SEASAT, and GEOSAT over the Aral Sea, the Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea are analyzed and a least squares collocation technique is used to predict the geoid undulations on a 0.25x0.25 deg. grid and to transform these geoid undulations to free air gravity anomalies. Rapp's 180x180 geopotential model is used as the reference surface for the collocation procedure. The result of geoid to gravity transformation is, however, sensitive to the information content of the reference geopotential model used. For example, considerable detailed surface gravity data were incorporated into the reference model over the Black Sea, resulting in a reference model with significant information content at short wavelengths. Thus, estimation of short wavelength gravity anomalies from gridded geoid heights is generally reliable over regions such as the Black Sea, using the conventional collocation technique with local empirical covariance functions. Over regions such as the Caspian Sea, where detailed surface data are generally not incorporated into the reference model, unconventional techniques are needed to obtain reliable gravity anomalies. Based on the predicted gravity anomalies over these inland seas, speculative tectonic structures are identified and geophysical processes are inferred

Modeling Lifetime Earnings Paths: Hypothetical versus Actual Workers

To assess the distributional effects of social security reform proposals, it is essential to have good information on real-world workers’ lifetime earnings trajectories. Until recently, however, policymakers have relied on hypothetical earnings profiles for policy analysis. We use actual lifetime earnings data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to compare actual workers’ covered earnings profiles to these hypothetical profiles. We show that the hypothetical profiles do not track earnings patterns of current retirees; thus lifetime pay levels are much higher than for most HRS workers. Therefore, using hypothetical profiles could misrepresent benefits paid and taxes collected under such reforms.

Analysis of altimetry over the Aral Sea

Satellite based altimetric data taken by GEOS-3, SEASAT, and GEOSAT over the Aral Sea are analyzed and a least squares collocation technique is used to predict the geoid undulations on a 0.25 by 0.25 degree grid and to transform these geoid undulations to free air gravity anomalies. Rapp's 180 by 180 geopotential model is taken as the empirical model. The collocation procedure is performed with a set of local residual empirical covariance functions. For comparison, Rapp's global covariance functions and Jordan's self-consistent theoretical covariance functions based on Jordan's formulation and on locally derived parameters are also used to grid geoid undulations and to predict gravity anomalies. The sensitivity of the collocation results to the choice of covariance functions is discussed

Quantum feedback and adaptive measurements

Summary form only given. Although real-time feedback of measured signals is an essential component of sensing and control in classical settings, models for quantum feedback that are rigorous yet useful have only become possible since the advent of measurement-based quantum trajectory theory. The quantum feedback scenario introduces new concerns of coherence and measurement backaction, but recent work has shown that these can be treated properly in a formal integration of quantum trajectory theory with standard state-space formulations of filtering and control theory. Pioneering studies by H. M. Wiseman have shown that such models can be used to design and to analyze realistic schemes for adaptive homodyne measurement and for feedback control of atomic motion. Much of the ongoing research in our group focuses on the experimental implementation of such schemes. For a broad range of quantum feedback scenarios, certain recurring technical issues arise out of the need to perform complex, high-bandwidth processing of measured signals. We are developing a "rapid-prototyping" approach to refining signal processing and feedback algorithms via quantum trajectory simulation on a PC, followed by translation of the algorithms into hardware Description language (HDL)

Lifetime Earnings Variability and Retirement Wealth

This paper explores how earnings variability is related to retirement wealth. Past research has demonstrated that the average American household on the verge of retirement would need to save substantially more, in order to preserve consumption flows in old age. While several socioeconomic factors have been examined that might explain such problems, prior studies have not assessed the role of earnings variability over the lifetime as a potential explanation for poor retirement prospects. Thus two workers having identical levels of average lifetime earnings might have had very different patterns of earnings variability over their lifetimes. Such differences could translate into quite different retirement wealth outcomes. This paper evaluates the effect of earnings variability on retirement wealth using information supplied by respondents to the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). This is a rich and nationally representative dataset on Americans on the verge of retirement, with responses linked to administrative records from the Social Security Administration. Our research illuminates the key links between lifetime earnings variability and retirement wealth.

Retirement Wealth and Lifetime Earnings Variability

This paper explores understand how earnings variability influences peoples’ retirement preparedness by influencing their accumulated wealth levels as of retirement age. Prior research has demonstrated that the US average household nearing retirement would need to save substantially more in order to preserve consumption in old age. While some socioeconomic factors have been suggested that might explain shortfalls, previous studies have not assessed the role of earnings variability over the lifetime as a potential explanation for poor retirement prospects. Thus two workers having identical levels of average lifetime earnings might have had very different patterns of earnings variability over their lifetimes. Such differences could translate into quite different retirement wealth outcomes. We evaluate the effect of earnings variability on retirement wealth using information supplied by respondents to the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). This is a rich and nationally representative dataset on Americans on the verge of retirement, with responses linked to administrative records from the Social Security Administration. Our research illuminates key links between lifetime earnings variability and retirement wealth

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of a Positive Youth Development Program for Secondary Students in Macau

A well-tested comprehensive Chinese positive youth development program (Project P.A.T.H.S.) developed in Hong Kong has been modified and adapted for use in Macau. This program aims to help adolescent school children develop positively and to be better prepared for their future. The present study investigated the effectiveness of the Tier 1 Program of “P.A.T.H.S.” for Secondary 2 students of two pilot schools. Since there were “repeating” and “transferring” students joining the program, the effectiveness of the program on these particular groups of participants was also examined. The subjective outcome evaluations including participants' perceptions of the program, program instructors, benefits from the program, and overall satisfaction were positive. Although the longitudinal data from the objective outcome evaluation did not show any notable improvement, the overall effect of the program was found to be positive to the new comers in the junior secondary years. The existing evaluation findings suggest that the Secondary 2 program is especially effective to those newly joining the program. In view of the paucity of youth studies in Macau, the present study can contribute to evidence-based youth work and provide baseline data for the program to be evaluated in the Secondary 3 periods in the future

Adaptive homodyne measurement of optical phase

We present an experimental demonstration of the power of real-time feedback in quantum metrology, confirming a theoretical prediction by Wiseman regarding the superior performance of an adaptive homodyne technique for single-shot measurement of optical phase. For phase measurements performed on weak coherent states with no prior knowledge of the signal phase, we show that the variance of adaptive homodyne estimation approaches closer to the fundamental quantum uncertainty limit than any previously demonstrated technique. Our results underscore the importance of real-time feedback for reaching quantum performance limits in coherent telecommunication, precision measurement and information processing.Comment: RevTex4, color PDF figures (separate files), submitted to PR