The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030

China's energy consumption doubled within the first 25 years of economic reforms initiated at the end of the 1970s, and doubled again in the past 5 years. It has resulted of a threefold CO2 emissions increase since early of 1980s. China's heavy reliance on coal will make it the largest emitter of CO2 in the world. By combining structural decomposition and input–output analysis we seek to assess the driving forces of China's CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030. In our reference scenario, production-related CO2 emissions will increase another three times by 2030. Household consumption, capital investment and growth in exports will largely drive the increase in CO2 emissions. Efficiency gains will be partially offset the projected increases in consumption, but our scenarios show that this will not be sufficient if China's consumption patterns converge to current US levels. Relying on efficiency improvements alone will not stabilize China's future emissions. Our scenarios show that even extremely optimistic assumptions of widespread installation of carbon dioxide capture and storage will only slow the increase in CO2 emissions

Comparative analysis of carbonization drivers in China's megacities

This study investigates the key drivers affecting emission increases in terms of population growth, economic growth, industrial transformation, and energy use in six Chinese megacities: Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong. The six cities represent the most-developed regions in China and they have similar per capita carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions as many developed countries. There is an urgent need to quantify the magnitude of each factor in driving the emissions changes in those cities so that a potential bottom-up climate mitigation policy design at the city and sectoral levels can be initiated. We adopt index decomposition analysis and present the results in both additive and multiplicative approaches to reveal the absolute and relative levels of each factor in driving emission changes during 1985-2007. Among all cities, economic effect and energy intensity effect have always been the two dominant factors contributing to the changes in carbon emissions. This study reveals that there are large variations in the ways driving forces contribute to emission levels in different cities and industrial sectors

Lifting China's Water Spell

China is a country with significant but unevenly distributed water resources. The water stressed North stays in contrast to the water abundant and polluted South defining China's current water environment. In this paper we use the latest available data sets and adopt structural decomposition analysis for the years 1992 to 2007 to investigate the driving forces behind the emerging water crisis in China. We employ four water indicators in China, that is, freshwater consumption, discharge of COD (chemical oxygen demand) in effluent water, cumulative COD and dilution water requirements for cumulative pollution, to investigate the driving forces behind the emerging crisis. The paper finds water intensity improvements can effectively offset annual freshwater consumption and COD discharge driven by per capita GDP growth, but that it had failed to eliminate cumulative pollution in water bodies. Between 1992 and 2007, 225 million tonnes of COD accumulated in Chinese water bodies, which would require 3.2-8.5 trillion m3 freshwater, depending on the water quality of the recipient water bodies to dilute pollution to a minimum reusable standard. Cumulative water pollution is a key driver to pollution induced water scarcity across China. In addition, urban household consumption, export of goods and services, and infrastructure investment are the main factors contributing to accumulated water pollution since 2000