Leveraging Natural History Data in One- and Two-Arm Hierarchical Bayesian Studies of Rare Disease Progression

peer reviewedThe small sample sizes inherent in rare and pediatric disease settings offer significant challenges for clinical trial design. In such settings, Bayesian adaptive trial methods can often pay dividends, allowing the sensible incorporation of auxiliary data and other relevant information to bolster that collected by the trial itself. Previous work has also included the use of one-arm trials augmented by the participants’ own natural history data, from which the future course of the disease in the absence of intervention can be predicted. Patient response can then be defined by the degree to which post-intervention observations are inconsistent with the predicted “natural” trajectory. While such trials offer obvious advantages in efficiency and ethical hazard (since they expose no new patients to a placebo, anathema to patients or their parents and caregivers), they can offer no protection against bias arising from the presence of any “placebo effect,” the tendency of patients to improve merely by being in the trial. In this paper, we investigate the impact of both static and transient placebo effects on one-arm responder studies of this type, as well as two-arm versions that incorporate a small concurrent placebo group but still borrow strength from the natural history data. We also propose more traditional Bayesian changepoint models that specify a parametric functional form for the patient’s post-intervention trajectory, which in turn allow quantification of the treatment benefit in terms of the model parameters, rather than semi-parametrically in terms of a response relative to some “null” model. We compare the operating characteristics of our designs in the context of an ongoing investigation of centronuclear myopathies (CNMs), a group of congenital neuromuscular diseases whose most common and severe form is X-linked, affecting approximately 1 in 50,000 newborn boys. Our results indicate our two-arm responder and changepoint methods can offer protection against placebo effects, improving power while protecting the trial’s Type I error rate. However, further research into innovative trial designs as well as ongoing dialog with regulatory authorities remain critically important in rare disease research

The 2016–2019 ImmunoTOX assessment board report of collaborative management of immune-related adverse events, an observational clinical study

International audienc

European Joint Programme on Rare Diseases workshop: LAMA2-muscular dystrophy: paving the road to therapy March 17–19, 2023, Barcelona, Spain

International audienceThe European Joint Programme on Rare Diseases (EJPRD) funded the workshop "LAMA2-Muscular Dystrophy: Paving the road to therapy", bringing together 40 health-care professionals, researchers, patient-advocacy groups, Early-Career Scientists and other stakeholders from 14 countries. Progress in natural history, pathophysiology, trial readiness, and treatment strategies was discussed together with efforts to increase patient-awareness and strengthen collaborations. Key outcomes were (a) ongoing natural history studies in 7 countries already covered more than 350 patients. The next steps are to include additional countries, harmonise data collection and define a minimal dataset; (b) therapy development was largely complementary. Approaches included LAMA2-replacement and correction, LAMA1-reactivation, mRNA modulation, linker-protein expression, targeting downstream processes and identifying modifiers, using viral vectors, muscle stem cells, iPSC and mouse models and patient lines; (c) LAMA2-Europe will inform patients (-representatives) worldwide on standards of care and scientific progress, and enable sharing experiences. Follow-up monthly online meetings and research repositories have been established to create sustainable collaborations

Risdiplam in Type 1 Spinal Muscular Atrophy

BackgroundType 1 spinal muscular atrophy is a rare, progressive neuromuscular disease that is caused by low levels of functional survival of motor neuron (SMN) protein. Risdiplam is an orally administered, small molecule that modifies SMN2 pre-messenger RNA splicing and increases levels of functional SMN protein.MethodsWe report the results of part 1 of a two-part, phase 2-3, open-label study of risdiplam in infants 1 to 7 months of age who had type 1 spinal muscular atrophy, which is characterized by the infant not attaining the ability to sit without support. Primary outcomes were safety, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics (including the blood SMN protein concentration), and the selection of the risdiplam dose for part 2 of the study. Exploratory outcomes included the ability to sit without support for at least 5 seconds.ResultsA total of 21 infants were enrolled. Four infants were in a low-dose cohort and were treated with a final dose at month 12 of 0.08 mg of risdiplam per kilogram of body weight per day, and 17 were in a high-dose cohort and were treated with a final dose at month 12 of 0.2 mg per kilogram per day. The baseline median SMN protein concentrations in blood were 1.31 ng per milliliter in the low-dose cohort and 2.54 ng per milliliter in the high-dose cohort; at 12 months, the median values increased to 3.05 ng per milliliter and 5.66 ng per milliliter, respectively, which represented a median of 3.0 times and 1.9 times the baseline values in the low-dose and high-dose cohorts, respectively. Serious adverse events included pneumonia, respiratory tract infection, and acute respiratory failure. At the time of this publication, 4 infants had died of respiratory complications. Seven infants in the high-dose cohort and no infants in the low-dose cohort were able to sit without support for at least 5 seconds. The higher dose of risdiplam (0.2 mg per kilogram per day) was selected for part 2 of the study.ConclusionsIn infants with type 1 spinal muscular atrophy, treatment with oral risdiplam led to an increased expression of functional SMN protein in the blood. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02913482.)The small molecule risdiplam increased the expression of SMN protein in blood in 21 infants with type 1 spinal muscular atrophy. Post hoc clinical features of sitting ability and respiratory status were reported

Risdiplam-Treated Infants with Type 1 Spinal Muscular Atrophy versus Historical Controls

Background Type 1 spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a progressive neuromuscular disease characterized by an onset at 6 months of age or younger, an inability to sit without support, and deficient levels of survival of motor neuron (SMN) protein. Risdiplam is an orally administered small molecule that modifies SMN2 pre-messenger RNA splicing and increases levels of functional SMN protein in blood. Methods We conducted an open-label study of risdiplam in infants with type 1 SMA who were 1 to 7 months of age at enrollment. Part 1 of the study (published previously) determined the dose to be used in part 2 (reported here), which assessed the efficacy and safety of daily risdiplam as compared with no treatment in historical controls. The primary end point was the ability to sit without support for at least 5 seconds after 12 months of treatment. Key secondary end points were a score of 40 or higher on the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Infant Test of Neuromuscular Disorders (CHOP-INTEND; range, 0 to 64, with higher scores indicating better motor function), an increase of at least 4 points from baseline in the CHOP-INTEND score, a motor-milestone response as measured by Section 2 of the Hammersmith Infant Neurological Examination (HINE-2), and survival without permanent ventilation. For the secondary end points, comparisons were made with the upper boundary of 90% confidence intervals for natural-history data from 40 infants with type 1 SMA. Results A total of 41 infants were enrolled. After 12 months of treatment, 12 infants (29%) were able to sit without support for at least 5 seconds, a milestone not attained in this disorder. The percentages of infants in whom the key secondary end points were met as compared with the upper boundary of confidence intervals from historical controls were 56% as compared with 17% for a CHOP-INTEND score of 40 or higher, 90% as compared with 17% for an increase of at least 4 points from baseline in the CHOP-INTEND score, 78% as compared with 12% for a HINE-2 motor-milestone response, and 85% as compared with 42% for survival without permanent ventilation (P<0.001 for all comparisons). The most common serious adverse events were pneumonia, bronchiolitis, hypotonia, and respiratory failure. Conclusions In this study involving infants with type 1 SMA, risdiplam resulted in higher percentages of infants who met motor milestones and who showed improvements in motor function than the percentages observed in historical cohorts. Longer and larger trials are required to determine the long-term safety and efficacy of risdiplam in infants with type 1 SMA. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche; FIREFISH ClinicalTrials.gov number, .)Small-Molecule SMN2 Modifier in Type 1 SMA The pre-mRNA SMN2 splicing modifier risdiplam was administered orally to 41 infants with type 1 spinal muscular atrophy. After 12 months of treatment, 12 infants were able to sit without support, and most had better scores on motor-performance scales than the upper limit of confidence intervals from historical controls