The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)

In this paper, we provide a description of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM). We illustrate its general structure and model properties, especially with regard to the economy's response to changes in policy and in other dimensions of the economic environment. The model has a quarterly frequency and includes 371 variables. Out of these, 124 are exogenous and 247 endogenous. The model structure features 36 behavioral equations and 211 identities. One of the key features of the model is the joint representation of the economic environment on both the demand and the supply side. Since it is designed for the needs of a Treasury Department, its public finance section is developed in great detail, both on the expenditure and revenue side. It also features a complete modeling of financial assets and liabilities of each institutional sector. After documenting the model structure and the estimation results, we turn to the outcomes of model simulation and ascertain the model properties. In ITEM the shocks that generate permanent effects on output are associated with: a) variation of variables that affect the tax wedge in the labor market and the user cost of capital; b) labor supply change; c) variation in the trend component of TFP (technical progress). By contrast, variables that exert their effects on the demand side have only temporary effects on output. We also perform in-sample dynamic simulation of the model. This allows us to derive simulated values of all the endogenous variables which can be compared with the corresponding actual values. This allows us to appraise, for each aggregate, whether the simulated values track the observed data.Macroeconometric models; Economic Policy

The Propionibacterium spp. extract reduces Candida albicans-induced damage to vaginal epithelial cells and increases mitochondrial response to Candida albicans infection in vitro

Introduction. Bacterial lysates are prepared by inactivated microorganisms and are extensively employed in clinical settings as immunomodulants and to improve mucosal immunity. However, despite their extensive clinical use, their effects on the host are only partially known. The Propionibacterium spp. extract (PE) is a bacterial lysate included as an active compound in a gel formulation used to treat the symptoms of vulvovaginal candidiasis. Here, we analyzed its possible beneficial effects in an in vitro model of vaginal epithelial cells infected with Candida. Materials and Methods. Initially, we analyzed the PE effects on C. albicans and C. parapsilosis growth by the microdilution method. We then assessed the capacity of PE to reduce C. albicans-induced damage of vaginal epithelial cells through the quantification of lactate-dehydrogenase released by damaged cells in the growth medium. Moreover, in order to test the capacity of the PE to modulate epithelial mitochondrial activity, we evaluated Reactive-Oxygen-Species (ROS) production by the infected epithelial cells, stimulated or not with PE. This was kinetically monitored through the analysis of emitted fluorescence, after addition of the MitoSOX Red probe. Results. Our results show that PE did not affect directly microbial growth. In addition, the epithelial cells stimulation with PE reduced C. albicans-induced cell damage. Moreover, the treatment with PE increased the epithelial cells mitochondrial activity in response to C. albicans infection in vitro. Discussion and Conclusions. Taken together, our results show that PE increases ROS production by epithelial cells in response to C. albicans infection. Therefore, our results suggest that the increased mitochondrial activity induced by PE, could protect epithelial cells against the damage induced by C. albicans infection

Food related risks during pregnancy: how much do women know about it?

Aim Infection with Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes during pregnancy can lead to severe illness in the foetus but it can be prevented by simple hygienic measures. This study evaluated the knowledge that women have about food related risk and the information sources used. Methods We surveyed pregnant women and new mothers in[Removed for blind peer review], using a questionnaire approved by health direction, processed by an optical reader and analyzed using χ² test and Odds Ratio. Results 149 women responded to the survey, 78.5% of them received information from the gynaecologist, 45% from internet and then books/pamphlets. 67.8% felt well informed about food-related risks connected. 94% of them knows Toxoplasma; 39.5% ignore Listeria instead. From our results it’s evident  that graduated women tend to identify all foods as less secure and had better attitudes on cleaning refrigerator, on respecting temperatures, on avoiding consumption of undercooked foods, on protecting food before consumption. Conclusions Pregnant women have good awareness of food-related risks. However there’s a high confusion, due to the use of internet and other not reliable sources. This study demonstrates that it’s necessary to improve the organization of nutritional education by adequately trained health personnel

A screening sampling plan to detect Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis-positive dairy herds

Abstract Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) is the etiological agent of paratuberculosis, a chronic contagious bacterial disease primarily affecting dairy cattle. Paratuberculosis represents a dual problem for the milk production chain: in addition to economic losses to affected herds, MAP may have zoonotic potential. Infected herds must be identified in order to implement programs designed to reduce the incidence of disease within and between herds and to prevent MAP from entering the food chain. The objective of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of a screening sampling plan (SSP) to detect MAP-positive dairy herds by repetitive analysis of bulk tank milk (BTM) samples by ELISA and in-line milk filter (ILMF) samples by PCR. Samples from BTM and ILMF were collected twice from 569 dairy herds in southern Italy. Additionally, 12,016 individual milk samples were collected: 9,509 from 102 SSP-positive herds (SSP MAP-positive) and 2,507 from 21 randomly selected SSP-negative herds (SSP MAP-negative). There was a total of 126 SSP MAP-positive herds (i.e., 21.3% SSP MAP-positive herds; 95% confidence interval=18.0–24.9); the within-herd apparent prevalence (AP) ranged between 0.00 and 22.73% (mean 6.07%). A significant difference in within-herd AP was shown between SSP MAP-positive herds and SSP MAP-negative herds. A highly significant association was shown between the median AP herd status (>5%) and positivity to at least one ILMF or BTM sample. The SSP detected a minimum of 56.25% of low AP herds (AP ≤2.0%) up to a maximum of 100% of herds with a within-herd AP ≥8.0%. Overall, the SSP detected 85.57% of herds in which at least one individual milk sample was positive by ELISA. The proposed SSP was an inexpensive and useful tool to detect MAP-positive herds with a higher risk of infection diffusion and milk contamination. Although the SSP cannot be used for MAP-free certification of herds, it could be useful to prioritize appropriate control measures aimed at reducing the prevalence of infection in dairy herds and milk contamination

An Untargeted Metabolomic Analysis of Lacticaseibacillus (L.) rhamnosus, Lactobacillus (L.) acidophilus, Lactiplantibacillus (L.) plantarum and Limosilactobacillus (L.) reuteri Reveals an Upregulated Production of Inosine from L. rhamnosus

Lactic acid bacteria are considered an inexhaustible source of bioactive compounds; indeed, products from their metabolism are known to have immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory activity. Recently, we demonstrated that Cell-Free Supernatants (CFS) obtained from Lactobacillus (L.) acidophilus, Lactiplantibacillus (L.) plantarum, Lacticaseibacillus (L.) rhamnosus, and Limosilactobacillus (L.) reuteri can impair Candida pathogenic potential in an in vitro model of epithelial vaginal infection. This effect could be ascribed to a direct effect of living lactic acid bacteria on Candida virulence and to the production of metabolites that are able to impair fungal virulence. In the present work, stemming from these data, we deepened our knowledge of CFS from these four lactic acid bacteria by performing a metabolomic analysis to better characterize their composition. By using an untargeted metabolomic approach, we detected consistent differences in the metabolites produced by these four different lactic acid bacteria. Interestingly, L. rhamnosus and L. acidophilus showed the most peculiar metabolic profiles. Specifically, after a hierarchical clustering analysis, L. rhamnosus and L. acidophilus showed specific areas of significantly overexpressed metabolites that strongly differed from the same areas in other lactic acid bacteria. From the overexpressed compounds in these areas, inosine from L. rhamnosus returned with the best identification profile. This molecule has been described as having antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, anti-infective, and neuroprotective properties. The biological significance of its overproduction by L. rhamnosus might be important in its probiotic and/or postbiotic activity

Evidence of Common Isolates of Streptococcus agalactiae in Bovines and Humans in Emilia Romagna Region (Northern Italy)

Streptococcus agalactiae (group B Streptococcus, GBS) is one of the most important agents of bovine mastitis and causes remarkable direct and indirect economic losses to the livestock sector. Moreover, this species can cause severe human diseases in susceptible individuals. To investigate the zoonotic potential of S. agalactiae, 203 sympatric isolates from both humans and cattle, isolated in the same time frame (2018) and in the same geographic area (Emilia Romagna region, Northern Italy), were characterized by molecular capsular typing (MCT), pilus island typing (PI), and multi-locus sequence typing (MLST). In addition, antibiotic-resistant phenotypes were investigated. The distribution of the allelic profiles obtained by combining the three genotyping methods (MCT-PI-MLST) resulted in 64 possible genotypes, with greater genetic variability among the human compared to the bovine isolates. Although the combined methods had a high discriminatory power (>96,2%), five genotypes were observed in both species (20,9% of the total isolates). Furthermore, some of these strains shared the same antibiotic resistance profiles. The finding of human and bovine isolates with common genotypes and antibiotic resistance profiles supports the hypothesis of interspecies transmission of S. agalactiae between bovines and humans

Isolated hypercholesterolemia leads to steatosis in the liver without affecting the pancreas

Abstract Background Lipid accumulation in the liver and pancreas is primarily caused by combined hyperlipidemia. However, the effect of isolated hypercholesterolemia without hypertriglyceridemia is not fully described. Therefore, our aim was to investigate whether hypercholesterolemia alone leads to alterations both in hepatic and pancreatic lipid panel and histology in rats. Methods Male Wistar rats were fed with 2% cholesterol +0.25% cholate-supplemented diet or standard chow for 12 weeks. Blood was collected at weeks 0, 4, 8 and 12 to measure serum cholesterol and triglyceride levels. At week 12, both the pancreas and the liver were isolated for further histological and biochemical analysis. Hepatic and plasma fatty acid composition was assessed by gas chromatography. Expression of mRNA of major enzymes involved in saturated/unsaturated fatty acid synthesis was analyzed by qPCR. In separate experiments serum enzyme activities and insulin levels were measured at week 9. Results At week 12, rats fed with 2% cholesterol +0.25% cholate-supplemented diet were characterized by elevated serum cholesterol (4.09 ± 0.20 vs. 2.89 ± 0.22 mmol/L, *p < 0.05) while triglyceride (2.27 ± 0.05 vs. 2.03 ± 0.03 mmol/L) and glucose levels (5.32 ± 0.14 vs. 5.23 ± 0.10 mmol/L) remained unchanged. Isolated hypercholesterolemia increased hepatic lipid accumulation, hepatic cholesterol (5.86 ± 0.22 vs. 1.60 ± 0.15 ng/g tissue, *p < 0.05) and triglyceride contents (19.28 ± 1.42 vs. 6.78 ± 0.71 ng/g tissue, *p < 0.05), and hepatic nitrotyrosine level (4.07 ± 0.52 vs. 2.59 ± 0.31 ng/mg protein, *p < 0.05). The histology and tissue lipid content of the pancreas was not affected. Serum total protein level, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) activities remained unchanged in response to isolated hypercholesterolemia while serum alkaline phosphatase activity (ALP) significantly increased. Plasma insulin levels did not change in response to isolated hypercholesterolemia suggesting an intact endocrine function of the pancreas. Isolated hypercholesterolemia caused a significantly increased hepatic and serum fatty acid level associated with a marked alteration of fatty acid composition. Hepatic expression of Δ9-desaturase (SCD1) was increased 4.92×, while expression of Δ5-desaturase and Δ6-desaturase were decreased (0.447× and 0.577×, respectively) due to isolated hypercholesterolemia. Conclusions Isolated hypercholesterolemia leads to hepatic steatosis and marked alterations in the hepatic lipid profile without affecting the pancreas. Altered fatty acid profile might mediate harmful effects of cholesterol in the liver

Climate Change and Military Power: Hunting for Submarines in the Warming Ocean (Spring 2024)

Climate change will have significant effects on military power, capabilities, effectiveness, and employment. Yet, scholars have paid little attention to this topic. We address this gap by investigating the effects of changing ocean conditions on anti-submarine warfare. Anti-submarine warfare capabilities exploit various physical phenomena to detect enemy submarines, principally underwater sound propagation. Underwater sound propagation depends on factors influenced by climate change, such as water temperature and salinity. Through ocean-acoustic simulations, we estimate the effect of climate change on the detection range of enemy submarines in the North Atlantic and in the Western Pacific. Our results show that, in most areas, the range of detection through underwater acoustics is contracting due to climate change.LBJ School of Public Affair

The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)

In this paper, we provide a description of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM). We illustrate its general structure and model properties, especially with regard to the economy's response to changes in policy and in other dimensions of the economic environment. One of the key features of the model is the joint representation of the economy on both the demand and the supply sides. Since it is designed for the needs of a Treasury Department, its public finance section is developed in great detail, both on the expenditure and revenue sides. It also features a complete modeling of financial assets and liabilities of each institutional sector. After documenting the model structure and the estimation results, we turn to the outcomes of model simulation and ascertain the model properties. In ITEM the shocks that generate permanent effects on output are associated with: a) variables that affect the tax wedge in the labor market and the user cost of capital; b) labor supply change; and c) variation in the trend component of TFP (technical progress). By contrast, demand shocks have only temporary effects on output (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)

In this paper, we provide a description of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM). We illustrate its general structure and model properties, especially with regard to the economy's response to changes in policy and in other dimensions of the economic environment. One of the key features of the model is the joint representation of the economy on both the demand and the supply sides. Since it is designed for the needs of a Treasury Department, its public finance section is developed in great detail, both on the expenditure and revenue sides. It also features a complete modeling of financial assets and liabilities of each institutional sector. After documenting the model structure and the estimation results, we turn to the outcomes of model simulation and ascertain the model properties. In ITEM the shocks that generate permanent effects on output are associated with: a) variables that affect the tax wedge in the labor market and the user cost of capital; b) labor supply change; and c) variation in the trend component of TFP (technical progress). By contrast, demand shocks have only temporary effects on output.Macroeconometric models Economic policy