Sovereign defaults during the Great Depression: the role of fiscal fragility

The debt crisis of the early 1930s was probably the largest and most widespread in history. The defaults of national and sub-national governments were pivotal events of the Great Depression and contributed to shaping post-World War II finance in the United States and worldwide. I study the role of a so-far largely unexplored factor - fiscal fragility - in the crisis. In order to do this, I construct and analyse a dataset comprising a new measure of default size and new estimates of the size and composition of public debts for around 25 countries. The data accounts for maturity structures, sub-national borrowing as well as other key characteristics of debt burdens. I show econometrically that the severe deterioration in public revenues experienced by national and sub-national governments in a number of countries was a key determinant of the defaults above and beyond the Great Depression income shock. Countries hardest hit by the slump were more likely to renege on their external debts at both the national and subnational level, but countries whose public revenues fell more moderately were able avoid or limit the size of default. I furthermore show that the collapse in public revenues was not part of an explicit strategy to counter the slump through an active fiscal policy. On the contrary, the evidence indicates that fiscally weak countries saw their public expenditures collapse alongside revenues

Fiscal policy under constraints : fiscal capacity and austerity during the Great Depression

The Great Depression was characterized by widespread fiscal policy mistakes in the form of a contractionary or insufficiently expansionary fiscal stance. Despite this general conclusion, there were large differences in the conduct of fiscal policy between countries. I find that a higher degree of fiscal capacity helped countries run less procyclical fiscal policies by allowing them to borrow more extensively. Lower borrowing costs only partially explain this finding. Taken together, the results indicate that interwar governments were constrained in their policies by past investments in fiscal capacity, and not just by Gold Standard membership, ideology, and inadequate knowledge, as commonly held in the literature

Government action under constraints: fiscal development, fiscal policy and public goods provision during the great depression and in 19th and early 20th century Brazil

This dissertation is composed by three papers whose unifying themes are the origin and impact of fiscal institutions. The main contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it highlights the usefulness of the concept of fiscal capacity for the macroeconomics and international finance literatures by demonstrating its impact on sovereign default and fiscal dynamics during the Great Depression. Limits to the ability to tax have clear implications for macro-financial research, but are neglected by much of the literature. Second, my work contributes to the fiscal and state capacity literature by focusing on municipal level fiscal institutions in Brazil. Although research in this field is burgeoning, our understanding of the origin and impact of fiscal institutions in many parts of the world, including Latin America, is still very limited, particularly at the sub-national level. In terms of structure, the dissertation is a backwards journey from the impact of fiscal institutions to their origin. The first paper studies one of the ultimate outcomes of fiscal dynamics – sovereign default – by analyzing the debt crisis of the 1930s. The second paper takes the collapse in public revenues during the Great Depression as a starting point and demonstrates that fiscal institutions were a fundamental factor in the dynamics of fiscal aggregates. By shifting the focus to a single country and a different time period – the second half of the 19th and the early 20th centuries – the third paper demonstrates that slavery was deeply detrimental to the development of local governments’ ability to tax and provide fundamental growth and welfare-enhancing public goods in Brazil

Placenta previa and placental abruption after assisted reproductive technology in patients with endometriosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION Recent evidence suggests that assisted reproductive technology (ART) increases the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, including placental disorders. Similarly, endometriosis resulted detrimental on placenta previa. However, up to 50% of women with endometriosis suffer from infertility, thus requiring ART. The aim of our metanalysis is to compare women with and without endometriosis undergoing ART in terms of placenta disorders events, to establish if ART itself or endometriosis, as an indication to ART, increases the risk of placenta previa. METHODS Literature searches were conducted in January 2018 using electronic databases (PubMed, Medline, Scopus, Embase, Science Direct, and the Cochrane Library Scopus). Series comparing pregnancy outcome after ART in women with and without endometriosis were screened and data on placenta previa and placental abruption were extracted. RESULTS Five retrospective case-control studies met the inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis revealed that endometriosis is associated with an increased risk of placenta previa in pregnancies achieved through ART (OR 2.96 (95% CI 1.25-7.03); p = 0.01, I=69%, random-effect model). No differences in placental abruption incidence were found (OR 0.44 (95% CI 0.10-1.87); p = 0.26, I= 0%, fixed-effect model). CONCLUSION Patients with endometriosis undergoing ART may have additional risk of placenta previa. Despite the inability to determine if endometriosis alone or endometriosis plus ART increase the risk, physicians should be aware of the potential additional risk that endometriosis patients undergoing ART harbor

Foreign Debt and Secondary Markets: The Case of Interwar Germany

We offer a new interpretation of the sovereign and commercial debt repatriation to Germany that occurred between 1931 and 1938, involving German bonds held abroad. These bonds exhibited a non-negligible and varying spread between their domestic prices and their respective prices abroad. We analyze nine years of weekly prices of these securities on domestic and foreign stock markets to argue that the crucial factor for the origination, variation and persistence of the spread was the impact of capital controls on the possibility of trading on secondary markets. We also find that German authorities kept the practice of debt repatriation under increasingly strict control in order to enjoy some of its political benefits, while avoiding detrimental macroeconomic effects. Our conclusions differ from previous literature and in addition provide a comprehensive interpretation of different aspects of the episode, consistently with recent macroeconomic literature that links the efficiency of secondary markets to sovereign risk

BPD and BPD-DS Concerns and Results

none5Papadia FS; Elghadban H; Weiss A; Parodi C; Pagliardi F.Papadia, FRANCESCO SAVERIO; Elghadban, H; Weiss, Andrea; Parodi, Corrado; Pagliardi, Francesc

Computed tomography based radiomics as a predictor of survival in ovarian cancer patients: a systematic review

The objective of this systematic review was to assess the results of radiomics for prediction of overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) in ovarian cancer (OC) patients. A secondary objective was to evaluate the findings of papers that based their analyses on inter-site heterogeneity. This systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA statement. After the initial retrieval of 145 articles, the final systematic review comprised six articles. Association between radiomic features and OS was evaluated in 3/6 studies (50%); all articles showed a significant association between radiomic features and OS. Association with PFS was evaluated in 5/6 (83%) articles; the period of follow-up ranged between six and 36 months. All the articles showed significant association between radiomic models and PFS. Inter-site textural features were used for analysis in 2/6 (33%) articles. They demonstrated that high levels of inter-site textural heterogeneity were significantly associated with incomplete surgical resection in breast cancer gene-negative patients, and that lower heterogeneity was associated with complete resectability. There were some differences among papers in methodology; for example, only 3/6 (50%) articles included validation cohorts. In conclusion, radiomic models have demonstrated promising results as predictors of survival in OC patients, although larger studies are needed to allow clinical applicabilit

Accuracy of Sentinel Lymph Node Mapping After Previous Hysterectomy in Patients with Occult Cervical Cancer.

BACKGROUND In patients with a diagnosis of occult cervical cancer made on a hysterectomy specimen after surgery for a benign indication, lymph node assessment is crucial to determine treatment. We aimed to compare sentinel lymph node (SLN) mapping between patients with postoperative diagnosis of occult cervical carcinoma and patients with cervical cancer and uterus in situ. METHODS A retrospective analysis of cervical cancer patients International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage IA-IIA disease undergoing laparoscopic SLN mapping was performed. Patients were divided into two groups: those with a diagnosis of occult cervical cancer made on a hysterectomy specimen (group 1) and those with a diagnosis of cervical cancer and uterus in situ (group 2). Tracers used for SLN mapping included technetium-99m ((99m)Tc), blue dye, and indocyanine green. After detection and excision, the SLN was sent for frozen section analysis, and the planned surgical procedure was aborted in case of metastatic disease in favor of a chemoradiotherapeutic treatment. RESULTS Groups 1 and 2 included 9 and 62 patients, respectively. Clinicopathologic characteristics were similar among the two groups. Overall and bilateral detection rates were 66.6 and 33.3 and 95.1 and 87 % in groups 1 and 2, respectively (p < 0.05). No false-negative SLNs were identified in either group, with a negative predictive value of 100 %. CONCLUSIONS SLN mapping in occult cervical cancer patients has lower detection rates compared to patients with uterus in situ. In these patients, proper management of their disease has already failed before diagnosis, and additional mistakes may definitely compromise attempts at cure

Gas-Free Amino- and Alkoxycarbonylation of Aryl Iodides in a Bioinspired Deep Eutectic Solvent with Mo(CO)6 as a Safe CO Source

The Pd-catalyzed amino- and alkoxycarbonylation of aryl iodides has been exploited, for the first time, in a bioinspired Deep Eutectic Solvent and under gas-free conditions, by using Mo(CO)6 as the CO source. The method allows for the preparation of carboxylic amides and esters in high yields (up to 99%), short reaction time (2 h) and under mild reaction conditions (80 °C), with a low catalyst loading (2.5 mol%). Noteworthy, in the case of N-hexylbenzamide, it has been demonstrated that both the catalyst and DES can be used for four consecutive runs, with a moderate decrease of catalytic efficiency. The methodology has been also applied to the preparation of an Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient used for the treatment of human scabies and lice