Statistical challenges in the development and evaluation of marker-based clinical tests

Exciting new technologies for assessing markers in human specimens are now available to evaluate unprecedented types and numbers of variations in DNA, RNA, proteins, or biological structures such as chromosomes. These markers, whether viewed individually, or collectively as a 'signature', have the potential to be useful for disease risk assessment, screening, early detection, prognosis, therapy selection, and monitoring for therapy effectiveness or disease recurrence. Successful translation from basic research findings to clinically useful test requires basic, translational, and regulatory sciences and a collaborative effort among individuals with varied types of expertise including laboratory scientists, technology developers, clinicians, statisticians, and bioinformaticians. The focus of this commentary is the many statistical challenges in translational marker research, specifically in the development and validation of marker-based tests that have clinical utility for therapeutic decision-making

The Underestimation Of Egocentric Distance: Evidence From Frontal Matching Tasks

There is controversy over the existence, nature, and cause of error in egocentric distance judgments. One proposal is that the systematic biases often found in explicit judgments of egocentric distance along the ground may be related to recently observed biases in the perceived declination of gaze (Durgin & Li, Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics, in press), To measure perceived egocentric distance nonverbally, observers in a field were asked to position themselves so that their distance from one of two experimenters was equal to the frontal distance between the experimenters. Observers placed themselves too far away, consistent with egocentric distance underestimation. A similar experiment was conducted with vertical frontal extents. Both experiments were replicated in panoramic virtual reality. Perceived egocentric distance was quantitatively consistent with angular bias in perceived gaze declination (1.5 gain). Finally, an exocentric distance-matching task was contrasted with a variant of the egocentric matching task. The egocentric matching data approximate a constant compression of perceived egocentric distance with a power function exponent of nearly 1; exocentric matches had an exponent of about 0.67. The divergent pattern between egocentric and exocentric matches suggests that they depend on different visual cues

Appointing Women to Boards: Is There a Cultural Bias?

Companies that are serious about corporate governance and business ethics are turning their attention to gender diversity at the most senior levels of business (Institute of Business Ethics, Business Ethics Briefing 21:1, 2011). Board gender diversity has been the subject of several studies carried out by international organizations such as Catalyst (Increasing gender diversity on boards: Current index of formal approaches, 2012), the World Economic Forum (Hausmann et al., The global gender gap report, 2010), and the European Board Diversity Analysis (Is it getting easier to find women on European boards? 2010). They all lead to reports confirming the overall relatively low proportion of women on boards and the slow pace at which more women are being appointed. Furthermore, the proportion of women on corporate boards varies much across countries. Based on institutional theory, this study hypothesizes and tests whether this variation can be attributed to differences in cultural settings across countries. Our analysis of the representation of women on boards for 32 countries during 2010 reveals that two cultural characteristics are indeed associated with the observed differences. We use the cultural dimensions proposed by Hofstede (Culture’s consequences: International differences in work-related values, 1980) to measure this construct. Results show that countries which have the greatest tolerance for inequalities in the distribution of power and those that tend to value the role of men generally exhibit lower representations of women on boards

Development of a perioperative medicine research agenda: a cross sectional survey

BACKGROUND: Post-operative complications are a significant source of morbidity and mortality for patients undergoing surgery. However, there is little research in the emerging field of perioperative medicine beyond cardiac risk stratification. We sought to determine the research priorities for perioperative medicine using a cross sectional survey of Canadian and American general internists. METHODS: Surveys were electronically sent to 312 general internists from the Canadian Society of Internal Medicine and 130 internists from the perioperative medicine research interest group within the US based Society of General Internal Medicine. The questionnaire contained thirty research questions and respondents were asked to rate the priority of these questions for future study. RESULTS: The research topics with the highest ratings included: the need for tight control of diabetes mellitus postoperatively and the value of starting aspirin on patients at increased risk for postoperative cardiac events. Research questions evaluating the efficacy and safety of perioperative interventions had higher ratings than questions relating to the prediction of postoperative risk. Questions relating to the yield of preoperative diagnostic tests had the lowest ratings (p < 0.001 for differences across these categories). CONCLUSION: The results of this survey suggest that practicing general internists believe that interventions studies are a priority within perioperative medicine. These findings should help prioritize research in this emerging field

Antigenic Diversity, Transmission Mechanisms, and the Evolution of Pathogens

Pathogens have evolved diverse strategies to maximize their transmission fitness. Here we investigate these strategies for directly transmitted pathogens using mathematical models of disease pathogenesis and transmission, modeling fitness as a function of within- and between-host pathogen dynamics. The within-host model includes realistic constraints on pathogen replication via resource depletion and cross-immunity between pathogen strains. We find three distinct types of infection emerge as maxima in the fitness landscape, each characterized by particular within-host dynamics, host population contact network structure, and transmission mode. These three infection types are associated with distinct non-overlapping ranges of levels of antigenic diversity, and well-defined patterns of within-host dynamics and between-host transmissibility. Fitness, quantified by the basic reproduction number, also falls within distinct ranges for each infection type. Every type is optimal for certain contact structures over a range of contact rates. Sexually transmitted infections and childhood diseases are identified as exemplar types for low and high contact rates, respectively. This work generates a plausible mechanistic hypothesis for the observed tradeoff between pathogen transmissibility and antigenic diversity, and shows how different classes of pathogens arise evolutionarily as fitness optima for different contact network structures and host contact rates

Subclinical Hypothyroidism after Radioiodine Exposure: Ukrainian–American Cohort Study of Thyroid Cancer and Other Thyroid Diseases after the Chornobyl Accident (1998–2000)

BackgroundHypothyroidism is the most common thyroid abnormality in patients treated with high doses of iodine-131 (131I). Data on risk of hypothyroidism from low to moderate 131I thyroid doses are limited and inconsistent.ObjectiveThis study was conducted to quantify the risk of hypothyroidism prevalence in relation to 131I doses received because of the Chornobyl accident.MethodsThis is a cross-sectional (1998-2000) screening study of thyroid diseases in a cohort of 11,853 individuals &lt; 18 years of age at the time of the accident, with individual thyroid radioactivity measurements taken within 2 months of the accident. We measured thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine, and antibodies to thyroid peroxidase (ATPO) in serum.ResultsMean age at examination of the analysis cohort was 21.6 years (range, 12.2-32.5 years), with 49% females. Mean 131I thyroid dose was 0.79 Gy (range, 0-40.7 Gy). There were 719 cases with hypothyroidism (TSH &gt; 4 mIU/L), including 14 with overt hypothyroidism. We found a significant, small association between (131)I thyroid doses and prevalent hypothyroidism, with the excess odds ratio (EOR) per gray of 0.10 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.21). EOR per gray was higher in individuals with ATPO &lt; or = 60 U/mL compared with individuals with ATPO &gt; 60 U/mL (p &lt; 0.001).ConclusionsThis is the first study to find a significant relationship between prevalence of hypothyroidism and individual (131)I thyroid doses due to environmental exposure. The radiation increase in hypothyroidism was small (10% per Gy) and limited largely to subclinical hypothyroidism. Prospective data are needed to evaluate the dynamics of radiation-related hypothyroidism and clarify the role of antithyroid antibodies