History, Crucial Choices and Equilibrium

This paper discusses alternative conceptions of time and scrutinises the ideas of crucial choice, determinism and equilibrium. The relevant notion is that of historical time, where time is seen as irreversible, flowing from the irrevocable past to an unknown future, like an arrow. This notion is consistent with the concept of fundamental uncertainty and is at odds with deterministic explanations of reality. The economy is an open, evolving process in which free will, Shacklean genuine choices, Schumpeterian innovative behaviours, and unpredictable, unintended consequences of human actions have an important role to play. Human imagination and crucial decisions preclude the full operation of rigid laws of necessity. In the light of these ideas, the paper also approaches a few suggestions of reconceptualisations of the notion of equilibrium which purport to render the concept more palatableHistorical Time, Crucial Choices, Shackle, Determinism, Equilibrium.

Global versus local shocks in micro price dynamics

A number of recent papers point to the importance of distinguishing between the price reaction to micro and macro shocks in order to reconcile the volatility of individual prices with the observed persistence of aggregate inflation. We emphasize instead the importance of distinguishing between global and local shocks. We exploit a panel of 276 micro price levels collected on a semi-annual frequency from 1990 to 2010 across 88 cities in 59 countries around the world, that enables us to distinguish between different types (local and global) of micro and macro shocks. We find that global shocks have more persistent effects on prices as compared to local ones e.g. prices respond faster to local macro shocks than to global micro ones, implying that the relatively slow response of prices to macro shocks documented in recent studies comes from global rather than local sources. Global macro shocks have the most persistent effect on prices, with the majority of goods and locations sharing a single source of trend over time stemming from these shocks. Finally, both local macro and local micro shocks are associated with relatively fast price convergence.global shocks, local shocks, micro shocks, macro shocks, price adjustment, micro-macro gap, price-setting models, micro prices.

Mean Value Theorems for L-functions over Prime Polynomials for the Rational Function Field

The first and second moments are established for the family of quadratic Dirichlet $L$--functions over the rational function field at the central point $s=\tfrac{1}{2}$ where the character $\chi$ is defined by the Legendre symbol for polynomials over finite fields and runs over all monic irreducible polynomials $P$ of a given odd degree. Asymptotic formulae are derived for fixed finite fields when the degree of $P$ is large. The first moment obtained here is the function field analogue of a result due to Jutila in the number--field setting. The approach is based on classical analytical methods and relies on the use of the analogue of the approximate functional equation for these $L$--functions.Comment: 17 page

Conjectures for the integral moments and ratios of L-functions over function fields

We extend to the function field setting the heuristic previously developed, by Conrey, Farmer, Keating, Rubinstein and Snaith, for the integral moments and ratios of $L$-functions defined over number fields. Specifically, we give a heuristic for the moments and ratios of a family of $L$-functions associated with hyperelliptic curves of genus $g$ over a fixed finite field $\mathbb{F}_{q}$ in the limit as $g\rightarrow\infty$. Like in the number field case, there is a striking resemblance to the corresponding formulae for the characteristic polynomials of random matrices. As an application, we calculate the one-level density for the zeros of these $L$-functions.Comment: 40 page

Inattentive professional forecasters

We use the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize the dynamics of expectations at the micro level. We find that forecasters (i) have predictable forecast errors; (ii) disagree; (iii) fail to systematically update their forecasts in the wake of new information; (iv) disagree even when updating; and (v) differ in their frequency of updating and forecast performances. We argue that these micro data facts are qualitatively in line with recent models in which expectations are formed by inattentive agents. However building and estimating an expectation model that features two types of inattention, namely sticky information à la Mankiw-Reis and noisy information à la Sims, we cannot quantitatively generate the error and disagreement that are observed in the SPF data. The rejection is mainly due to the fact that professionals relatively agree on very sluggish forecasts.imperfect information, inattention, forecast errors, disagreement, business cycle.

Radiolysis of Amino Acids by Heavy and Energetic Cosmic Ray Analogs in Simulated Space Environments: α\alpha-Glycine Zwitterion Form

In this work, we studied the stability of the glycine molecule in the crystalline zwitterion form, known as {\alpha}-glycine ($^{+}$NH$_{3}$CH$_{2}$COO$^{-}$) under action of heavy cosmic ray analogs. The experiments were conducted in a high vacuum chamber at heavy ions accelerator GANIL, in Caen, France. The samples were bombarded at two temperatures (14 K and 300 K) by $^{58}$Ni$^{11+}$ ions of 46 MeV until the final fluence of $10^{13}$ ions cm$^{-2}$. The chemical evolution of the sample was evaluated in-situ using Fourrier Transformed Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer. The bombardment at 14 K produced several daughter species such as OCN$^-$, CO, CO$_2$, and CN$^-$. The results also suggest the appearing of peptide bonds during irradiation but this must be confirmed by further experiments. The halflives of glycine in Interstellar Medium were estimated to be 7.8 $\times 10^3$ years (300 K) and 2.8 $\times 10^3$ years (14 K). In the Solar System the values were 8.4 $\times 10^2$ years (300 K) and 3.6 $\times 10^3$ years (14 K). It is believed that glycine could be present in space environments that suffered aqueous changes such as the interior of comets, meteorites and planetesimals. This molecule is present in proteins of all alive beings. So, studying its stability in these environments provides further understanding about the role of this specie in the prebiotic chemistry on Earth.Comment: 28 pages, 12 figures, 9 tables. Accepted to be published at Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT WITH HABIT FORMATION

Moral concepts affect crime supply. This idea is modelled assuming that illegal activities is habit forming. We introduce habits in a intertemporal general equilibrium framework to illegal activities and compare its outcomes with a model without habit formation. The findings are that habit (i) reduces the crime level; (ii) reduces the marginal effect of illegal activities return on crime; (iii) reduces the efficacy of punishment.