Random Walk Theory and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies

This paper investigates the validity of the random walk theory in the Euro-Serbian dinar exchange rate market. We apply Andrew Lo and Archie MacKinlay’s (1988) conventional variance ratio test and Jonathan Wright’s (2000) non-parametric ranks and signs based variance ratio tests to the daily Euro/Serbian dinar exchange rate returns using the data from January 2005 - December 2008. Both types of variance ratio tests overwhelmingly reject the random walk hypothesis over the data span. To assess the robustness of our findings, we examine the forecasting performance of a non-linear, nonparametric model in the spirit of Francis Diebold and James Nason (1990) and find that it is able to significantly improve upon the random walk model, thus confirming the existence of foreign exchange market imperfections in a small transition economy such as Serbia. In the last part of the paper, we conduct a comparative study on how our results relate to those of other transition economies in the region.Random walk, Forecasting, Exchange rates, Transition economies, Market efficiency, Artificial neural networks

THE APPLICATION OF THE MOST FAVORED NATION CLAUSE TO THE PROCEDURAL PROVISIONS OF BILATERAL INVESTMENT TREATIES: POSSIBILITIES FOR ESTABLISHING ICSID JURISDICTION FOR RESOLVING INVESTMENT DISPUTES

This article explores problems related to establishing the ICSID jurisdiction to the BITs dispute settlement provisions by application of the MFN clause. Being that the application of the clause asks for very extensive interpretation of the BIT which contains this clause, the practice of ICSID tribunals in this field has been very much debated in professional and academic circles. Not only has it raised concerns about stability, predictability and legal certainty in international investment law but, more importantly, about its further development in respect of arbitrators’ powers. The article analyzes three representative cases in which ICSID tribunals made decisions on jurisdiction based on the usage of the MFN clause: Maffezini, Plama and Salini. On the basis of this analysis, certain guidelines are proposed that might be applied in future disputes brought before ICSID tribunals. These guidelines are in compliance with modern tendencies in international scene, which should be considered as the indicators of the direction for further development of this particular area of law. Key words:  MFN clause, investment disputes, ICSID jurisdiction

The State of International Humanitarian Law as a Consequence of the History of South Slavs’ Nation-Building Processes

South Slavs have been repeatedly used as precedents for international humanitarian law and consequently have affected global developments: from the international concern over positions of Christians in Bosnia-Herzegovina in the 1870s that led to the peaceful replacement of imperial rule to the late 20th century in the NATO intervention against Serbia and Montenegro over Kosovo Albanians, which led to the creation of the newest nation-state in Europe. In addition to internal factors, the very creation of the common South Slav state was a result of international interventions, as was the dissolution of the country. The League of Nations ruling in favour of the Yugoslav complaint against Hungary in 1934 aided in developing the UN Security Council resolutions against Afghanistan in September 2001. Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1995 was a precedent for the UN sanctioned intervention, while Kosovo was a precedent for the non-sanctioned American-led intervention. Afghanistan, East Timor, Iraq, Libya are all legal consequences of interventions in the Balkans. Therefore, local history of interventions can lead to a general understanding of the development of international humanitarian law

L’émergence de la société civile dans la Bosnie-Herzégovine de d’avant-guerre

Le premier objet de ce papier est de déterminer quelles sont les idées et les organisations qui auraient pu conduire à la formation d’une société civile en Bosnie-Herzégovine. Une autre tâche est d’identifier l’origine réelle de ces idées. De même que la définition du terme “société civile” a été depuis longtemps l’objet de discussions, ses racines peuvent être, dans le cas bosniaque, l’objet d’une discussion similaire. Dans les années 1980, la crise de l’économie et du système politique youg..

Zastupljenost pušenja i pušačke navike učenika dobi 13 do 15 godina u Crnoj Gori: rezultati globalnog istraživanja o potrošnji duhana kod mladih (GYTS) 2008.

The Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) is an international study that provides data on youth tobacco use for development of tobacco control programs. It is a school-based survey that uses a standardised methodology for sampling, core questionnaire items, training protocol, fi eld procedures, and data management. This article reports the fi ndings from a GYTS conducted in Montenegro in 2008, which included 5723 adolescents. More than 30 % of students aged 13 to 15 tried smoking, 5.1 % smoked cigarettes, and 3.6 % of students used tobacco products other than cigarettes. Four in 10 ever smokers started to smoke before the age of 10. More than half the students reported secondary smoke exposure at home. Almost all (96.5 %) current smokers bought cigarettes in a store. Two in 10 students owned an artifact with a cigarette or tobacco brand logo on it. The GYTS study has shown that there is an urgent need to introduce effective child-oriented smoking prevention programmes in early elementary school classes. These should be accompanied by public awareness campaigns on smoke-free homes.Globalno istraživanje o potrošnji duhana kod mladih (GYTS) međunarodna je studija koja pruža podatke o pušačkim navikama mladih i omogućava razvijanje programa čiji je cilj kontrola duhana. U ovom radu dati su rezultati istraživanja GYTS koje je provedeno 2008. godine u Crnoj Gori. Istraživanje GYTS provodi se u školama pri čemu je standardizirana metodologija za formiranje uzorka, upitnik, prikupljanje i obrada podataka. Ukupno su 5723 učenika sudjelovala u istraživanju. Više od 30 % učenika dobi 13 do 15 godina eksperimentiralo je cigaretama. U ovoj populaciji ima 5.1 % stalnih pušača cigareta, dok 3.6 % učenika koristi neke druge duhanske proizvode. Četiri od 10 pušača počela su pušiti prije desete godine života. Više od pola ispitanika odgovorilo je da su izloženi duhanskom dimu u svojoj kući. Gotovo svi pušači (96.5 %) najčešće kupuju cigarete u prodavaonicama. Dva od 10 ispitanika imaju neki predmet s logom proizvođača cigareta. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je potrebno hitno pokrenuti preventivne programe kontrole duhana u nižim razredima osnovne škole. Također, potrebno je osmisliti i implementirati kampanje čiji je cilj podizanje svijesti građana o štetnosti pušenja u zatvorenom prostoru

Implementacija ERAS protokola za carski rez

In the past few decades, many changes have been noticed in all medical branches, especially in surgery. Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) is a completely new approach, with the main goal to change the period of patient’s recovery, making perioperative time easier and shorter. The patient’s recovery is faster, better and the patient’s satisfaction is bigger. Patients have an active role in their own recovery, which results in faster return to work and everyday activities. Hospital Length of Stay (LOS) is shorter and associated with concomitant financial savings. After ERAS protocol had been implemented in colorectal, abdominal surgery, urology orthopedic and oncology, and finally in obstetrics for cesarean section as well. This protocol has mostly been used in developed countries, but not in all hospitals. Creation and implementation of ERAS protocol is hard work, which includes multidisciplinary team work and especially a team leader, who coordinates the medical team, the patient and hospital management. Conclusion: Creation of an ERAS protocol is very serious and long- lasting work. It is multidisciplinary and it usually has to be individually tailored for each institution itself in coordination with the health care system and with the final implementation in the medical system.U posljednjih nekoliko desetljeća došlo je do velikih promjena u svim granama medicine, a posebno u kirurgiji. Enhanced Recovery After Operation (ERAS) potpuno je novi pristup, čiji je glavni cilj skratiti vrijeme oporavka pacijenta, biti brži i kvalitetniji, te učiniti pacijenta zadovoljnijim. Pacijent aktivno sudjeluje u svom oporavku, što rezultira bržim povratkom na posao i dnevnim aktivnostima. Duljina hospitalizacije je kraća, što smanjuje troškove liječenja. ERAS je prvi put primijenjen u kolorektalnoj kirurgiji, urologiji, abdominalnoj kirurgiji, ortopediji i onkologiji, te konačno u opstetriciji. ERAS protokoli se koriste uglavnom u razvijenim zemljama, no ne u svim bolnicama. Njegova izrada i provedba težak je posao, koji zahtijeva multidisciplinarni pristup. Uvijek postoji voditelj tima, čija je zadaća koordinacija članova tima, pacijenata i uprave bolnice. Zaključak: kreiranje ERAS protokola je ozbiljan i dugotrajan proces. Multidisciplinaran je i obično se mora kreirati za svaku ustanovu posebno u koordinaciji sa sustavom zdravstvene zaštite i konačnom implementacijom u zdravstveni sustav

Thermobaric Effects of Cast Composite Explosives of Different Charge Masses and Dimensions

The aim of this research was to determine the thermobaric effect of cast composite explosives, with different masses and dimensions of the chosen explosive charges. This was done by measuring the shock wave parameters in air (maximum overpressure and pressure impulse) and quantifying the thermal effect (temperature-time dependence), at different distances from the centre of the detonation. The chosen thermobaric explosive composition, TBE-3, was characterized. Its density, detonation velocity and viscosity-time dependence were determined. Experimental samples of different masses and calibres were prepared. The shock wave parameters in air were determined in field tests, by measuring the overpressure by piezo-electric pressure transducers. The detonation and the expansion of the explosion products were filmed by a TV high-speed camera, Phantom V9. An infrared (IR) camera FLIR SC7200 was used for recording the IR scene of the explosions and for tracking the thermal effects by a thermographic technique, i.e. thermal imaging. This work is an initial step towards establishing a method for the quantification of the thermal effects of a thermobaric detonation

Thermobaric Effects of Cast Composite Explosives of Different Charge Masses and Dimensions

The aim of this research was to determine the thermobaric effect of cast composite explosives, with different masses and dimensions of the chosen explosive charges. This was done by measuring the shock wave parameters in air (maximum overpressure and pressure impulse) and quantifying the thermal effect (temperature-time dependence), at different distances from the centre of the detonation. The chosen thermobaric explosive composition, TBE-3, was characterized. Its density, detonation velocity and viscosity-time dependence were determined. Experimental samples of different masses and calibres were prepared. The shock wave parameters in air were determined in field tests, by measuring the overpressure by piezo-electric pressure transducers. The detonation and the expansion of the explosion products were filmed by a TV high-speed camera, Phantom V9. An infrared (IR) camera FLIR SC7200 was used for recording the IR scene of the explosions and for tracking the thermal effects by a thermographic technique, i.e. thermal imaging. This work is an initial step towards establishing a method for the quantification of the thermal effects of a thermobaric detonation