Egg shape in the Common Guillemot Uria aalge and Brunnich’s Guillemot U. lomvia: not a rolling matter?

The adaptive significance of avian egg shape is poorly understood, and has been studied only in those species producing pyriform (pear-shaped, or pointed) eggs: waders and guillemots (murres) Uria spp., albeit to a limited extent. In the latter, it is widely believed that the pyriform shape has evolved to minimise their likelihood of rolling off a cliff ledge: the idea being that the more pointed the egg, the narrower the arc in which it rolls, and the less likely it is it will fall from a cliff ledge. Previous research also claimed that the rolling trajectory—the diameter of the arc they describe—of Common Guillemot U. aalge eggs is influenced not only by its shape but also by its mass, with heavier (i.e. larger) eggs describing a wider arc than lighter eggs. The finding that both shape and mass determined the rolling trajectory of Common Guillemot eggs (the shape–mass hypothesis) was used to explain the apparent anomaly that Bru¨nnich’s Guillemot U. lomvia produce eggs that are less pointed, yet breed on narrower ledges than Common Guillemots. They are able to do this, it was suggested, because Bru¨nnich’s Guillemot eggs are smaller and lighter in mass than those of Common Guillemots. However, since some populations of Bru¨nnich’s Guillemots produce eggs that are as large or larger than those of some Common Guillemot populations, the shape–mass hypothesis predicts that that (1) larger (i.e. heavier) eggs of both guillemot species will be more pyriform (pointed) in shape, and (2) that eggs of the two species of same mass should be similarly pointed. We tested these predictions and found: (1) only a weak, positive association between egg volume and pointedness in both guillemot species (\3% of the variation in egg shape explained by egg volume), and (2) no evidence that eggs of the two species of similar mass were more similar in shape: regardless of their mass, Brunnich’s Guillemot eggs were less pointed than Common Guillemot eggs. Overall, our results call into question the long-held belief that protection from rolling is the main selective factor driving guillemot egg shape

Frequencies and patterns of microbiology test requests from primary care in Oxfordshire, UK, 2008-2018: a retrospective cohort study of electronic health records to inform point of care testing

Objectives: To inform point-of-care test (POCT) development, we quantified the primary care demand for laboratory microbiology tests by describing their frequencies overall, frequencies of positives, most common organisms identified, temporal trends in testing and patterns of cotesting on the same and subsequent dates. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Primary care practices in Oxfordshire. Participants :393 905 patients (65% female; 49% aged 18–49). Primary and secondary outcome measures The frequencies of all microbiology tests requested between 2008 and 2018 were quantified. Patterns of cotesting were investigated with heat maps. All analyses were done overall, by sex and age categories. Results: 1 596 752 microbiology tests were requested. Urine culture±microscopy was the most common of all tests (n=673 612, 42%), was mainly requested without other tests and was the most common test requested in follow-up within 7 and 14 days. Of all urine cultures, 180 047 (27%) were positive and 172 651 (26%) showed mixed growth, and Escherichia coli was the most prevalent organism (132 277, 73% of positive urine cultures). Antenatal urine cultures and blood tests in pregnancy (hepatitis B, HIV and syphilis) formed a common test combination, consistent with their use in antenatal screening. Conclusions: The greatest burden of microbiology testing in primary care is attributable to urine culture ± microscopy; genital and routine antenatal urine and blood testing are also significant contributors. Further research should focus on the feasibility and impact of POCTs for these specimen types

Quasi-normal modes, area spectra and multi-horizon spacetimes

We suggest an interpretation for the highly damped QNM frequencies of the spherically symmetric multi-horizon spacetimes (Reissner-Nordstrom, Schwarzschild-deSitter, Reissner-Nordstrom-deSitter) following Maggiore's proposal about the link between the asymptotic QNM frequencies and the black hole thermodynamics. We show that the behavior of the asymptotic frequencies is easy to understand if one assumes that all of the horizons have the same equispaced area spectra. The QNM analysis is then consistent with the choice of the area spectra to be the one originally proposed for the black hole's horizon by Bekenstein: A=8\pi n (in Planck units). The interpretation of the highly damped QNM frequencies in the multi-horizon case is based on the similar grounds as in the single horizon (Schwarzschild) case, but it has some new features that are discussed in the paper.Comment: 8 pages, v2: no physics changed, some references added, few sentences added in the discussion part

Postcopulatory sexual selection

The female reproductive tract is where competition between the sperm of different males takes place, aided and abetted by the female herself. Intense postcopulatory sexual selection fosters inter-sexual conflict and drives rapid evolutionary change to generate a startling diversity of morphological, behavioural and physiological adaptations. We identify three main issues that should be resolved to advance our understanding of postcopulatory sexual selection. We need to determine the genetic basis of different male fertility traits and female traits that mediate sperm selection; identify the genes or genomic regions that control these traits; and establish the coevolutionary trajectory of sexes

Semi-analytic results for quasi-normal frequencies

The last decade has seen considerable interest in the quasi-normal frequencies [QNFs] of black holes (and even wormholes), both asymptotically flat and with cosmological horizons. There is wide agreement that the QNFs are often of the form omega_n = (offset) + i n (gap), though some authors have encountered situations where this behaviour seems to fail. To get a better understanding of the general situation we consider a semi-analytic model based on a piecewise Eckart (Poeschl-Teller) potential, allowing for different heights and different rates of exponential falloff in the two asymptotic directions. This model is sufficiently general to capture and display key features of the black hole QNFs while simultaneously being analytically tractable, at least for asymptotically large imaginary parts of the QNFs. We shall derive an appropriate "quantization condition" for the asymptotic QNFs, and extract as much analytic information as possible. In particular, we shall explicitly verify that the (offset)+ i n (gap) behaviour is common but not universal, with this behaviour failing unless the ratio of rates of exponential falloff on the two sides of the potential is a rational number. (This is "common but not universal" in the sense that the rational numbers are dense in the reals.) We argue that this behaviour is likely to persist for black holes with cosmological horizons.Comment: V1: 28 pages, no figures. V2: 3 references added, no physics changes. V3: 29 pages, 9 references added, no physics changes; V4: reformatted, now 27 pages. Some clarifications, comparison with results obtained by monodromy techniques. This version accepted for publication in JHEP. V5: Minor typos fixed. Compatible with published versio

Generic master equations for quasi-normal frequencies

Generic master equations governing the highly-damped quasi-normal frequencies [QNFs] of one-horizon, two-horizon, and even three-horizon spacetimes can be obtained through either semi-analytic or monodromy techniques. While many technical details differ, both between the semi-analytic and monodromy approaches, and quite often among various authors seeking to apply the monodromy technique, there is nevertheless widespread agreement regarding the the general form of the QNF master equations. Within this class of generic master equations we can establish some rather general results, relating the existence of "families" of QNFs of the form omega_{a,n} = (offset)_a + i n (gap) to the question of whether or not certain ratios of parameters are rational or irrational.Comment: 23 pages; V2: Minor additions, typos fixed. Matches published versio

Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning

Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dynamical models can successfully forecast sea ice concentration several weeks ahead, they struggle to outperform simple statistical benchmarks at longer lead times. We present a probabilistic, deep learning sea ice forecasting system, IceNet. The system has been trained on climate simulations and observational data to forecast the next 6 months of monthly-averaged sea ice concentration maps. We show that IceNet advances the range of accurate sea ice forecasts, outperforming a state-of-the-art dynamical model in seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice, particularly for extreme sea ice events. This step-change in sea ice forecasting ability brings us closer to conservation tools that mitigate risks associated with rapid sea ice loss

Postcopulatory Sexual Selection Is Associated with Reduced Variation in Sperm Morphology

The evolutionary role of postcopulatory sexual selection in shaping male reproductive traits, including sperm morphology, is well documented in several taxa. However, previous studies have focused almost exclusively on the influence of sperm competition on variation among species. In this study we tested the hypothesis that intraspecific variation in sperm morphology is driven by the level of postcopulatory sexual selection in passerine birds.Using two proxy measures of sperm competition level, (i) relative testes size and (ii) extrapair paternity level, we found strong evidence that intermale variation in sperm morphology is negatively associated with the degree of postcopulatory sexual selection, independently of phylogeny.Our results show that the role of postcopulatory sexual selection in the evolution of sperm morphology extends to an intraspecific level, reducing the variation towards what might be a species-specific 'optimum' sperm phenotype. This finding suggests that while postcopulatory selection is generally directional (e.g., favouring longer sperm) across avian species, it also acts as a stabilising evolutionary force within species under intense selection, resulting in reduced variation in sperm morphology traits. We discuss some potential evolutionary mechanisms for this pattern

Do female association preferences predict the likelihood of reproduction?

Sexual selection acting on male traits through female mate choice is commonly inferred from female association preferences in dichotomous mate choice experiments. However, there are surprisingly few empirical demonstrations that such association preferences predict the likelihood of females reproducing with a particular male. This information is essential to confirm association preferences as good predictors of mate choice. We used green swordtails (<i>Xiphophorus helleri</i>) to test whether association preferences predict the likelihood of a female reproducing with a male. Females were tested for a preference for long- or short-sworded males in a standard dichotomous choice experiment and then allowed free access to either their preferred or non-preferred male. If females subsequently failed to produce fry, they were provided a second unfamiliar male with similar sword length to the first male. Females were more likely to reproduce with preferred than non-preferred males, but for those that reproduced, neither the status (preferred/non-preferred) nor the sword length (long/short) of the male had an effect on brood size or relative investment in growth by the female. There was no overall preference based on sword length in this study, but male sword length did affect likelihood of reproduction, with females more likely to reproduce with long- than short-sworded males (independent of preference for such males in earlier choice tests). These results suggest that female association preferences are good indicators of female mate choice but that ornament characteristics of the male are also important

Knowledge synthesis of benefits and adverse effects of measles vaccination: the Lasbela balance sheet

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In preparation for a cluster-randomized controlled trial of a community intervention to increase the demand for measles vaccination in Lasbela district of Pakistan, a balance sheet summarized published evidence on benefits and possible adverse effects of measles vaccination.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The balance sheet listed: 1) major health conditions associated with measles; 2) the risk among the unvaccinated who contract measles; 3) the risk among the vaccinated; 4) the risk difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated; and 5) the likely net gain from vaccination for each condition.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two models revealed very different projections of net gain from measles vaccine. A Lasbela-specific combination of low period prevalence of measles among the unvaccinated, medium vaccination coverage and low vaccine efficacy rate, as revealed by the baseline survey, resulted in less-than-expected gains attributable to vaccination. Modelled on estimates where the vaccine had greater efficacy, the gains from vaccination would be more substantial.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Specific local conditions probably explain the low rates among the unvaccinated while the high vaccine failure rate is likely due to weaknesses in the vaccination delivery system. Community perception of these realities may have had some role in household decisions about whether to vaccinate, although the major discouraging factor was inadequate access. The balance sheet may be useful as a communication tool in other circumstances, applied to up-to-date local evidence.</p