Quantifying Similarity in Reliability Surfaces Using the Probability of Agreement

When separate populations exhibit similar reliability as a function of multiple explanatory variables, combining them into a single population is tempting. This can simplify future predictions and reduce uncertainty associated with estimation. However, combining these populations may introduce bias if the underlying relationships are in fact different. The probability of agreement formally and intuitively quantifies the similarity of estimated reliability surfaces across a two-factor input space. An example from the reliability literature demonstrates the utility of the approach when deciding whether to combine two populations or to keep them as distinct. New graphical summaries provide strategies for visualizing the results

Dynamical Gauge Conditions for the Einstein Evolution Equations

The Einstein evolution equations have been written in a number of symmetric hyperbolic forms when the gauge fields--the densitized lapse and the shift--are taken to be fixed functions of the coordinates. Extended systems of evolution equations are constructed here by adding the gauge degrees of freedom to the set of dynamical fields, thus forming symmetric hyperbolic systems for the combined evolution of the gravitational and the gauge fields. The associated characteristic speeds can be made causal (i.e. less than or equal to the speed of light) by adjusting 14 free parameters in these new systems. And 21 additional free parameters are available, for example to optimize the stability of numerical evolutions. The gauge evolution equations in these systems are generalizations of the ``K-driver'' and ``Gamma-driver'' conditions that have been used with some success in numerical black hole evolutions.Comment: New appendix on constraint evolution adde

Ecological Effects of Fear: How Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in Predation Risk Influences Mule Deer Access to Forage in a Sky‐Island System

Forage availability and predation risk interact to affect habitat use of ungulates across many biomes. Within sky‐island habitats of the Mojave Desert, increased availability of diverse forage and cover may provide ungulates with unique opportunities to extend nutrient uptake and/or to mitigate predation risk. We addressed whether habitat use and foraging patterns of female mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) responded to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), NDVI rate of change (green‐up), or the occurrence of cougars (Puma concolor). Female mule deer used available green‐up primarily in spring, although growing vegetation was available during other seasons. Mule deer and cougar shared similar habitat all year, and our models indicated cougars had a consistent, negative effect on mule deer access to growing vegetation, particularly in summer when cougar occurrence became concentrated at higher elevations. A seemingly late parturition date coincided with diminishing NDVI during the lactation period. Sky‐island populations, rarely studied, provide the opportunity to determine how mule deer respond to growing foliage along steep elevation and vegetation gradients when trapped with their predators and seasonally limited by aridity. Our findings indicate that fear of predation may restrict access to the forage resources found in sky islands

Introduction to dynamical horizons in numerical relativity

This paper presents a quasi-local method of studying the physics of dynamical black holes in numerical simulations. This is done within the dynamical horizon framework, which extends the earlier work on isolated horizons to time-dependent situations. In particular: (i) We locate various kinds of marginal surfaces and study their time evolution. An important ingredient is the calculation of the signature of the horizon, which can be either spacelike, timelike, or null. (ii) We generalize the calculation of the black hole mass and angular momentum, which were previously defined for axisymmetric isolated horizons to dynamical situations. (iii) We calculate the source multipole moments of the black hole which can be used to verify that the black hole settles down to a Kerr solution. (iv) We also study the fluxes of energy crossing the horizon, which describes how a black hole grows as it accretes matter and/or radiation. We describe our numerical implementation of these concepts and apply them to three specific test cases, namely, the axisymmetric head-on collision of two black holes, the axisymmetric collapse of a neutron star, and a non-axisymmetric black hole collision with non-zero initial orbital angular momentum.Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures, revtex4. Several smaller changes, some didactic content shortene

The High-Flux Backscattering Spectrometer at the NIST Center for Neutron Research

We describe the design and current performance of the high-flux backscattering spectrometer located at the NIST Center for Neutron Research. The design incorporates several state-of-the-art neutron optical devices to achieve the highest flux on sample possible while maintaining an energy resolution of less than 1mueV. Foremost among these is a novel phase-space transformation chopper that significantly reduces the mismatch between the beam divergences of the primary and secondary parts of the instrument. This resolves a long-standing problem of backscattering spectrometers, and produces a relative gain in neutron flux of 4.2. A high-speed Doppler-driven monochromator system has been built that is capable of achieving energy transfers of up to +-50mueV, thereby extending the dynamic range of this type of spectrometer by more than a factor of two over that of other reactor-based backscattering instruments

Observation of radiation pressure exerted by evanescent waves

We report a direct observation of radiation pressure, exerted on cold rubidium atoms while bouncing on an evanescent-wave atom mirror. We analyze the radiation pressure by imaging the motion of the atoms after the bounce. The number of absorbed photons is measured for laser detunings ranging from {190 MHz} to {1.4 GHz} and for angles from {0.9 mrad} to {24 mrad} above the critical angle of total internal reflection. Depending on these settings, we find velocity changes parallel with the mirror surface, ranging from 1 to {18 cm/s}. This corresponds to 2 to 31 photon recoils per atom. These results are independent of the evanescent-wave optical power.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

Towards an understanding of the stability properties of the 3+1 evolution equations in general relativity

We study the stability properties of the standard ADM formulation of the 3+1 evolution equations of general relativity through linear perturbations of flat spacetime. We focus attention on modes with zero speed of propagation and conjecture that they are responsible for instabilities encountered in numerical evolutions of the ADM formulation. These zero speed modes are of two kinds: pure gauge modes and constraint violating modes. We show how the decoupling of the gauge by a conformal rescaling can eliminate the problem with the gauge modes. The zero speed constraint violating modes can be dealt with by using the momentum constraints to give them a finite speed of propagation. This analysis sheds some light on the question of why some recent reformulations of the 3+1 evolution equations have better stability properties than the standard ADM formulation.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures. Added a new section, plus incorporated many comments made by refere

Robotic ubiquitous cognitive ecology for smart homes

Robotic ecologies are networks of heterogeneous robotic devices pervasively embedded in everyday environments, where they cooperate to perform complex tasks. While their potential makes them increasingly popular, one fundamental problem is how to make them both autonomous and adaptive, so as to reduce the amount of preparation, pre-programming and human supervision that they require in real world applications. The project RUBICON develops learning solutions which yield cheaper, adaptive and efficient coordination of robotic ecologies. The approach we pursue builds upon a unique combination of methods from cognitive robotics, machine learning, planning and agent- based control, and wireless sensor networks. This paper illustrates the innovations advanced by RUBICON in each of these fronts before describing how the resulting techniques have been integrated and applied to a smart home scenario. The resulting system is able to provide useful services and pro-actively assist the users in their activities. RUBICON learns through an incremental and progressive approach driven by the feed- back received from its own activities and from the user, while also self-organizing the manner in which it uses available sensors, actuators and other functional components in the process. This paper summarises some of the lessons learned by adopting such an approach and outlines promising directions for future work

Extending the lifetime of 3D black hole computations with a new hyperbolic system of evolution equations

We present a new many-parameter family of hyperbolic representations of Einstein's equations, which we obtain by a straightforward generalization of previously known systems. We solve the resulting evolution equations numerically for a Schwarzschild black hole in three spatial dimensions, and find that the stability of the simulation is strongly dependent on the form of the equations (i.e. the choice of parameters of the hyperbolic system), independent of the numerics. For an appropriate range of parameters we can evolve a single 3D black hole to $t \simeq 600 M$ -- $1300 M$, and are apparently limited by constraint-violating solutions of the evolution equations. We expect that our method should result in comparable times for evolutions of a binary black hole system.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, submitted to PR

Energy Norms and the Stability of the Einstein Evolution Equations

The Einstein evolution equations may be written in a variety of equivalent analytical forms, but numerical solutions of these different formulations display a wide range of growth rates for constraint violations. For symmetric hyperbolic formulations of the equations, an exact expression for the growth rate is derived using an energy norm. This expression agrees with the growth rate determined by numerical solution of the equations. An approximate method for estimating the growth rate is also derived. This estimate can be evaluated algebraically from the initial data, and is shown to exhibit qualitatively the same dependence as the numerically-determined rate on the parameters that specify the formulation of the equations. This simple rate estimate therefore provides a useful tool for finding the most well-behaved forms of the evolution equations.Comment: Corrected typos; to appear in Physical Review