Indicator patterns of forced change learned by an artificial neural network

Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the "noise" of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to identify the year of input maps of temperature and precipitation from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as "reliable indicators" of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal-to-noise ratios and multi-linear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.Comment: The first version of this manuscript has been submitted to the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES), 202

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The Economic Impact of Weight Regain

Background. Obesity is well known for being associated with significant economic repercussions. Bariatric surgery is the only evidence-based solution to this problem as well as a cost-effective method of addressing the concern. Numerous authors have calculated the cost effectiveness and cost savings of bariatric surgery; however, to date the economic impact of weight regain as a component of overall cost has not been addressed. Methods. The literature search was conducted to elucidate the direct costs of obesity and primary bariatric surgery, the rate of weight recidivism and surgical revision, and any costs therein. Results. The quoted cost of obesity in Canada was $2.0 billion-$6.7 billion in 2013 CAD. The median percentage of bariatric procedures that fail due to weight gain or insufficient weight loss is 20% (average: 21.1% ± 10.1%, range: 5.2-39, = 10). Revision of primary surgeries on average ranges from 2.5% to 18.4%, and depending on the procedure accounts for an additional cost between $14,000 and$50,000 USD per patient. Discussion. There was a significant deficit of the literature pertaining to the cost of revision surgery as compared with primary bariatric surgery. As such, the cycle of weight recidivism and bariatric revisions has not as of yet been introduced into any previous cost analysis of bariatric surgery

The Economic Impact of Weight Regain

Background. Obesity is well known for being associated with significant economic repercussions. Bariatric surgery is the only evidence-based solution to this problem as well as a cost-effective method of addressing the concern. Numerous authors have calculated the cost effectiveness and cost savings of bariatric surgery; however, to date the economic impact of weight regain as a component of overall cost has not been addressed. Methods. The literature search was conducted to elucidate the direct costs of obesity and primary bariatric surgery, the rate of weight recidivism and surgical revision, and any costs therein. Results. The quoted cost of obesity in Canada was $2.0 billion–$6.7 billion in 2013 CAD. The median percentage of bariatric procedures that fail due to weight gain or insufficient weight loss is 20% (average: 21.1%±10.1%, range: 5.2–39, n=10). Revision of primary surgeries on average ranges from 2.5% to 18.4%, and depending on the procedure accounts for an additional cost between $14,000 and$50,000 USD per patient. Discussion. There was a significant deficit of the literature pertaining to the cost of revision surgery as compared with primary bariatric surgery. As such, the cycle of weight recidivism and bariatric revisions has not as of yet been introduced into any previous cost analysis of bariatric surgery

Ultra-Stable Environment Control for the NEID Spectrometer: Design and Performance Demonstration

Two key areas of emphasis in contemporary experimental exoplanet science are the detailed characterization of transiting terrestrial planets, and the search for Earth analog planets to be targeted by future imaging missions. Both of these pursuits are dependent on an order-of-magnitude improvement in the measurement of stellar radial velocities (RV), setting a requirement on single-measurement instrumental uncertainty of order 10 cm/s. Achieving such extraordinary precision on a high-resolution spectrometer requires thermo-mechanically stabilizing the instrument to unprecedented levels. Here, we describe the Environment Control System (ECS) of the NEID Spectrometer, which will be commissioned on the 3.5 m WIYN Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory in 2019, and has a performance specification of on-sky RV precision < 50 cm/s. Because NEID's optical table and mounts are made from aluminum, which has a high coefficient of thermal expansion, sub-milliKelvin temperature control is especially critical. NEID inherits its ECS from that of the Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF), but with modifications for improved performance and operation near room temperature. Our full-system stability test shows the NEID system exceeds the already impressive performance of HPF, maintaining vacuum pressures below $10^{-6}$ Torr and an RMS temperature stability better than 0.4 mK over 30 days. Our ECS design is fully open-source; the design of our temperature-controlled vacuum chamber has already been made public, and here we release the electrical schematics for our custom Temperature Monitoring and Control (TMC) system.Comment: Accepted for publication in JATI

The human body at cellular resolution: the NIH Human Biomolecular Atlas Program

Abstract: Transformative technologies are enabling the construction of three-dimensional maps of tissues with unprecedented spatial and molecular resolution. Over the next seven years, the NIH Common Fund Human Biomolecular Atlas Program (HuBMAP) intends to develop a widely accessible framework for comprehensively mapping the human body at single-cell resolution by supporting technology development, data acquisition, and detailed spatial mapping. HuBMAP will integrate its efforts with other funding agencies, programs, consortia, and the biomedical research community at large towards the shared vision of a comprehensive, accessible three-dimensional molecular and cellular atlas of the human body, in health and under various disease conditions

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure